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twinkle

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About twinkle

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  1. twinkle

    Time To Change The Law On Drugs?

    Laboratories were not allowed to access RAW cannabis in the USA to do any real studies or work on, it was illegal to do so. Read up on Harry Anslinger.
  2. twinkle

    Time To Change The Law On Drugs?

    Just been watching a Bloomberg piece on a pot company "TILRAY" who are projecting growth of ten billion dollars in its pot business,i'm still raging for not getting in earlier.
  3. twinkle

    More IOM Government Spin

    IN !!!!.
  4. twinkle

    Offshore Banking

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-branded-one-of-world-s-worst-tax-havens-1.2901822;; this could explain a lot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  5. twinkle

    £1M of Taxpayers money to the Syrian Refugees

    you never heard of "shovel,hole,stop digging"?.
  6. twinkle

    £1M of Taxpayers money to the Syrian Refugees

    90% = a democratic opinion.
  7. twinkle

    Time To Change The Law On Drugs?

    If pot is now being invested in by Coca Cola then it's time to invest imfo.
  8. twinkle

    Isle of Man News and Politics

    fucking creep!.
  9. twinkle

    So the UK is finished says Theresa Mayhem

    NO I prefer THIS,how the hell does the ecb magic this away?????????????. Today's Market | Market Outlook The European Bluff: How Long Can European Markets Survive Without The 'Big Brother' Help? Sep. 15, 2018 5:09 AM ET | 50 comments | | Includes: ADRU, BBEU, DBEU, DBEZ, DEZU, EDOM, EEA, EPV, EUFN, EURL, EWG, EWI, EWP, EWQ, EWZ, EZU, FEEU, FEP, FEU, FEUZ, FEZ, FIEE, FIEU, FLEE, GSEU, HEDJ, HEZU, HFXE, IEUR, IEV, PTEU, RFEU, TUR, UPV, VGK by: The Fortune Teller The Fortune Teller REITs, BDCs, Bonds, etc., dividend growth investing, Deep Value, long/short equity Marketplace The Wheel of FORTUNE (12,496 followers) Summary A financial D(raghi)-Day is approaching soon for Europe, and it ain't looking good. Since the European debt crisis of 2011, the ECB managed to sweep the problems under the carpet over and over again. Nonetheless, this time is different, of course, unless the ECB decided to back off its current plans. If the ECB sticks to its guns, Europe isn't the place to be investing in, to say the least. Members of my private investing community, The Wheel of FORTUNE, receive real-time trade alerts on this idea and many more. Learn more today >> Introduction Europe is doomed! I know it's a harsh statement, but if the European Central Bank ("ECB") and its president, Mario Draghi, are determined to end the QE policy they are running over recent years, there's simply no way that European capital markets can withstand the loss of the largest, most important, and by far the most significant player in the European credit markets. Credit spreads of (most of) the PIGS countries are already reacting to the anticipated departure of the ECB from its bond market, with the 10-year of Italy, Spain and Portugal already starting to feel the impact. The impact but not yet the pain. Let be very blunt and clear about it: If the ECB isn't buying European sovereign bonds starting 1.1.2019 (and don't come up with other tricks that have the same effect, of course), I expect yields of these countries to be higher by at least 1% one year from now. At the very minimum. In this article, I'll explain why. We already wrote about Europe (VGK, EZU) and European Banks (EUFN) in general. We also wrote about certain European countries/banks specifically: Italy (EWI), Italian banks (OTCPK:IITOF, OTCPK:ISNPY, OTCPK:IITSF, OTCPK:UNCFF, OTCPK:UNCRY) Spain (EWP) and Spanish Banks (BBVA, SAN) Deutsche Bank (DB) Let's now put everything together and see why Europe might be doomed for the next couple of years, if not more. In essence, it's very simple; almost feels like a binary option. If the ECB keeps (or restarts) pumping money into the European markets, the bluff may continue. However, if the ECB stops - and doesn't restart - purchasing European sovereign debts, I see no way how the bluff isn't going to be exposed in its full scale. The European Bluff Let's start with Italy, which is probably the best example how the European bluff is working. Italy's bond yields surged to a new multi-year high recently. The spreads investors demand to hold Italian debt compared to German (EWG) debt more than doubled in recent months. Local bank stocks have completed a nearly 30% fall between April to end of August, before seeing a bounce in September. At the end of August, Fitch ratings cut the outlook for Italian bonds to "negative" in light of the upcoming budget and fiscal plans of the new government. The sovereign debt of Italy is currently rated (on a composite basis) BBB by all rating agencies: Standard & Poor's: BBB with "stable" outlook, as of October 27th 2017. Moody: Baa2 with "under review" outlook (for a possible downgrade), as of May 25th 2018. Fitch: BBB with "negative" outlook, as of August 31st 2018. Still within the investment grade side (AGG, LQD), but getting closer to the border line (below BBB-) that would turn the debt into a high-yield (HYG, JNK) one. Unlikely in the foreseeable future, but not out of question, especially if the new government adopts a loosening fiscal policy when it decides on a new budget in few weeks. In case you are wondering how come that the yield on the Italian 10-year bond dropped by about 50 basis points, from 3.25% to 2.75%, over the past few days, the reason is the same-old reason: ECB. Per the ECB's weekly report, the balance sheet increased by €12.6B over the past week - the largest weekly increase since last April - out of which, €8.2B were purchases of European government bonds. Wild guess: Italy accounts for a big chunk of the increase. Meanwhile, foreign investors are already starting to flee. According to Citibank (C), foreign investors sold €33B of Italian sovereign debt and €9.4B of Italian corporate debt in June, following a sale (in total) of €33B in May. This is the highest outflow since 1997! (even when the debt crisis hit the country in 2011, capital outflow was lower). ECB is Controlling the Market Here are few charts that illustrate the problem through the Italian lenses. At some point last year, the ECB was buying 7x more Italian bonds than the government issued (on a net basis). Since announcing on its QE program more than three years ago, the ECB is the largest - and in most cases the only - buyer of Italian bonds. If you wonder what is the real effect of the ECB's most recent QE program, shrinking spreads by over 60% would be just about right. Since the ECB is already reducing its bond purchases, and soon will stop buying completely, the obvious question is: Who can/will step in??? The simple answer: No one can step into the ECB's huge shoes. They are too big, and besides I doubt that many wish to fill the gap in the first place. As such, there's another question which I believe is relevant/unavoidable: How quickly will the ECB announce a new QE program? D(raghi)-Day Approaching soon As the end date of the ECB's purchase program approaches, we can see a few interesting trends that suggest what "the day after tomorrow" may look like. High correlation between the yields on Italy's 10-year bonds and the money supply rate from the ECB. The Italian bank stock index: The pressure is (and will keep) getting worse. According to a report by Deutsche Bank earlier this year, the holdings of commercial banks in Italy are estimated at 381 billion euros, and according to the Bank for International Settlements ("BIS"), this holding accounts for 20 percent of the total assets of the Italian banks. Italian government debt held by the two largest lenders of Italy, UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, is ~145% of the Tier-1 capital. For the third largest bank, Banco BPM (OTC:BNCZF), this ratio stands at >300%, and >200% at Ponte di Siena. Europe's 2011 debt crisis (PIGS, etc.) is still here, well "camouflaged" over recent years with the influx of over €2T into the European markets. The ECB has, de-facto, created a "zombie economy". Now that the ECB wishes to stop injecting more money into the system, the bluff is exposed. There hasn't really been any sort of economic improvement over the recent years in Europe. No banking reform has taken place with the ECB always backing off at the last minute, if something real/important was about to be done/decided. Balance sheets of many European banks - especially the bigger ones - are filled with problematic, non-performing loans. The ECB's balance sheet is over 40% of the Eurozone GDP. To put that in perspective, the Fed's balance sheet is at ~20% of the US GDP. Once again, the burning question now is not whether the ECB starts purchasing assets again rather how quickly will this happen? It's a matter of when, not a matter of it. Moreover, if I'm wrong - and the ECB insists on its "no intervention" policy - I expect the European credit markets to collapse. Nothing short of that! European bonds can't trade as they trade now without the free, never-ending flow of money that the ECB has provided for years. With no safety net, there's no safety. If the ECB sticks to its words/plans, the bluff will be exposed and one of the biggest bubble in modern history is going to burst. Soon. Real soon. Growth Forecast Is Likely To Get Cut Real growth in the EU region is poised to weaken in light of i) the ECB stepping out of the market, ii) the exposure to Emerging Markets (VWO, IEMG, EEM), and iii) the trade war with the US. According to a recent report on Bloomberg, the ECB now sees a higher risk for economic growth in the EU, a change from the previous ECB meeting in which the message was that "risks are generally balanced." According to recent projections, the ECB is likely to cut its growth forecast for 2020 from 2.1% to 1.7%. The troubles in EM are the troubles of Europe. About 30% of Europe's revenue comes from Latin America. In addition, according to a report by the BIS, Europe's total exposure to Turkey (TUR) amounts to $224B, with Spain leading the way with an exposure of $83B of its banking system to Turkey. France (EWQ) with an exposure of $35B and Italy with an exposure of $18.1B come right after. Spain's exposure to Argentina (ARGT), Brazil (EWZ) and Turkey amounts to nearly $270B, according to IMF data But exposure to emerging markets is not the only problem in Europe. The growth rate of the money supply (M1) in Europe began to fall rapidly at the beginning of 2018, when the bank began reducing its purchases to €30B/month, and is currently growing at an annual rate of ~6.9%. Nonetheless, over the past five months, the growth rate has been close to only 4%, something that (for itself) signals of and may lead to a possible recession within few months. Bottom Line Pouring ~€2.5T in recent years has provided a very good cover-up for the problems in Europe. However, the "zombie economy" can't grow without the massive, direct help of the ECB. Once the cover is removed, it won't take long for the bluff to be revealed. Both equity and credit markets in Europe are still not fully pricing in the effects of the biggest buyer (by far) of European assets moving to the sidelines. Perhaps the capital markets are still predicting, more like hoping, that the ECB somehow reverses course and keeps buying bonds (something which legally can't be done). Unlike the capital markets, it's much more difficult to manipulate the real economy. One can't sweep such problems like the ones Europe is dealing with under the carpet over and over and over again. No matter how many times you struggle, juggle or mumble, at the end of the day, PIGS remain pigs. Eventually, the house of cards falls apart, the "ponzi scheme" collapses, and the bubble bursts. Nothing of that kind and/or of that magnitude (can/should) last forever. The big question now is how quickly the ECB will announce a new purchase plan. It can't reverse course, but it can decide on a new one. However, until it does, the European economy continues - and is probably destined - to gallop towards the cliff. If the ECB sticks to its guns, Europe may enter a recession no later than September 2019, just when Mario Draghi is expected to leave his post as chairman of the bank. Frankly, he/it ain't looking happy/encouraging. Author's note: Blog Posts notifications are only being sent to those who follow an author at real time. In order to receive notifications regarding both articles and blog posts that we publish regularly at real time, you must ensure that you're (not only) following us (but also doing so) at real time. In order to follow us at real time go to Author Email Alerts, where the list of all the authors you follow appear, and make sure that "get e-mail alerts" is ticked on! The Wheel of FORTUNE's monthly review for July is now available (August soon...). Check it out while our free trial is still on! TWoF is one of SA Marketplace's most comprehensive services. We view our service as a "supermarket of ideas" with an emphasis on risk management and risk-adjusted returns. We cover all asset-classes: commons, preferreds, public debts, baby bonds, options, currencies and commodities. With Trapping Value on-board, you're getting two leading authors for the price of one. Before committing to the service on a long-term basis, take advantage of the free trial - allowing for a two-week, free of charge, first-hand experience. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Like this article Follow The Fortune Teller and get email alerts Recommended for you: What Credit/Yield-Based Models Suggest About The Odds Of A Recession Coming Soon? The Fortune Teller • Sep. 13, 2018 3:28 PM ET To T Or Not To T, That Is No Longer The Question Trapping Value • Sep. 15, 2018 12:25 AM ET Bill Gates Buys China: CEF Yields 8.4%, Trades At 11% Discount To NAV, Priced For Significant Upside Rida Morwa • Sep. 15, 2018 8:15 PM ET Strong Buy 6.16% Yield Won't Be On Sale Forever Colorado Wealth Management Fund • Sep. 13, 2018 3:05 PM ET Comments 50 Add Comment Robert SWAN Comments263 | + Follow Hm.... a few thoughts on Euro area vs US: - budget deficit vs gdp - trade balance - economic cycle - FX risk/reward - valuations 15 Sep 2018, 06:42 AM Reply 1 Like Damoni Kennard Comments59 | + Follow Thoughts or simply bullet-points? 15 Sep 2018, 11:15 AM Reply 2 Like Robert SWAN Comments263 | + Follow Thoughts. To me it all says “buy Europe”. After all, with Mr. Trump US does not seem as island of stability/predictability. 15 Sep 2018, 02:50 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @Robert SWAN I can't buy a region where the largest, most influential, buyer is stepping aside. 15 Sep 2018, 05:27 PM Reply 3 Like Fabien Hug Comments3341 | + Follow -The unpredictability of Trump is not going to influence only the US. If it's bad, it's going to be bad for everybody, EU included or even EU first. -In the bag from Trump; tax reductions (it will never happen in the EU) and shredding of regulations (it will never happen in the EU). -Crisis in the world = US ultimate safe haven. There is no alternative to this today (Switzerland and Singapore as always, but to small to absorb any massive capital flow). -Stay in the US for your core. You have good deals in Europe but don't expect any capital gains in the near term. I'd stick to the Nederland and Germany. -I like the UK. Great dividends and WWIII is already priced in. 15 Sep 2018, 09:28 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Hi @Fabien Hug The difference between the US and EU is that while the US is doing both bad and good things - Europe is static (at best) Doing nothing isn't a strategy for the long-run. In order to be successful one has to (also) make mistakes. JMHO 16 Sep 2018, 02:13 AM Reply 0 Like Robert SWAN Comments263 | + Follow Well... with all respect, you seem to focus only on one thing - ECB, however important it may be, the rest is more or less "bad feeling" about Europe. I have mentioned points that I consider to be "hard data" a therefore I just don't see the gloomy picture you do. But time will tell ... :-)Btw: it also very much depends where you live. For example FX - if it's risk (for investors from Europe like me), or neutral for US investors. 16 Sep 2018, 05:18 AM Reply 0 Like RoseNose, Contributor Comments18697 | + Follow It works until it doesn't. Eye opening well written piece Fortune Teller. I had no idea and generally ignore global issues, so thank you for your very insightful interpretations of it all....and easy reading as well. ECB can't stop and will need to rekindle the buying spree in some manner. Thanks for the interesting fact of the D-raghi D-day, but a sad day for many involved countries along with a COLD wake up call to those that have been deceived or not perceiving the outcomes. Best to you and happy investing always :)) Rose 15 Sep 2018, 07:57 AM Reply 7 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Thanks @RoseNose This time D-Day starts from the other side of the continent... 15 Sep 2018, 05:28 PM Reply 1 Like Wubbe Bos, Contributor Comments755 | + Follow This article is unlikely to age well.Just look at what happened in the US after tightening. The most likely trajectory for Europe is quite similar. 15 Sep 2018, 08:34 AM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » I hear you @Wubbe Bos In the US, tightening was warranted long before it started so when it started - the market viewed it as positive ("finally they act"...) In Europe, tightening is neither warranted nor welcome. Either way, yield on UST10Y has doubled from 1.5 to 3 in two years. Yields in Europe are likely to react the same way (if the ECB is serious and won't chicken out) 15 Sep 2018, 05:32 PM Reply 1 Like Lallemand Comments469 | + Follow Spain exposure is lower than appears in the figures, because there are many local (i.e Turkish, Argentinean, Brazilian...) deposits to offset the loans, and most of the loans have been made by local subsidiaries of Spanish banks and not by the banks themselves. In case of a major crisis banks will leave the country and lose only the equity invested, provided they did not provide loans to their subsidiaries. The French banks did that in Argentina many years ago, and it worked reasonably well. Hence Spain exposure to weak countries is a bit exaggerated, although yes, it may/will be painful for Spanish banks and its shareholders. On all the rest I agree, very good article, thanks TFT 15 Sep 2018, 08:53 AM Reply 5 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Thanks @Lallemand No matter how we turn the exposure of the balance sheets, circa 50% of revenue comes from Latin America. Even if the (capital) exposure is limited - the P&L isn't 15 Sep 2018, 05:34 PM Reply 2 Like Lallemand Comments469 | + Follow Fully agreeing. P/L losses mean a lot of pain for shareholders, balance sheet losses would mean bankruptcy, and hence major troubles ahead for Spain, and not only for its banks. 16 Sep 2018, 04:52 AM Reply 0 Like drmick Comments136 | + Follow Great article, as usual. About the Italian sovereign debt and 2019 Italian budget you wrote "especially if the new government adopts a loosening fiscal policy when it decides on a new budget in few weeks." Isn't the EU supposed to approve budget proposals? 15 Sep 2018, 09:02 AM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Thanks @drmick "The basic rule of budgetary policy enshrined in the Treaty is that Member States shall avoid excessive government deficits. Compliance with this rule is to be examined on the basis of reference values for the general government deficit (3%) and gross debt (60%) in relation to GDP, whereby a number of qualifications can be applied." www.ecb.europa.eu/... 15 Sep 2018, 05:37 PM Reply 0 Like JohnnyJack Comments472 | + Follow Mr. Swan: Do you mean that Europe is better than the US in those areas?TFT: It is curious how the EU refuses to learn from US history. We have one national currency. This was a disaster for the South as it could not compete with the North. It lost about one half of its population because it could not devalue its currency.Now, the EU is in the same situation. The South can't compete with the North, not even in the same country, but the South can't devalue and Brussels doesn't want anything to detract from the power of perfect unity with Brussels in charge.The exodus has begun: one million Spaniard have left Spain.. 15 Sep 2018, 09:16 AM Reply 2 Like JANFA Comments556 | + Follow "The exodus has begun: one million Spaniard have left Spain.." Where did they go? 15 Sep 2018, 03:55 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Hi @JohnnyJackThe one size fits all never worked and won't work. Can't work.I see many Europeans keep coming to the UK. I'm sure the same thing is happening in other strong European countries. 15 Sep 2018, 05:40 PM Reply 0 Like jaybeefr Comments7 | + Follow Germany controls the ECB and is intent on dominating a Federal Europe. Anyone in the Eurozone who falls out of line is to be punished severely economically by withdrawal from aid. Austerity is back once more but Europe will rebel and chaos will result. Europe is a dangerous place to be. Fortunately for the UK it has Europe's second largest economy and above all the £sterling. After Brexit it will ride out the EU storm from afar while Germany pays the price for patching up a sinking ship. 15 Sep 2018, 09:39 AM Reply 1 Like GermanETFBuyer Comments1 | + Follow Sorry, but no. Germany is only very powerful in the EU because it is the greatest economy in Europe. And standing together is the only way to be strong in times of rising, price dumping stars like China and India. Yes, the last crisis was very expensive for Germany, but all in all, Germany benefits from the EU, although it is - of course - not perfect. 15 Sep 2018, 10:32 AM Reply 3 Like Emerald Comments3582 | + Follow GermanETF, your statement is generally true, but Germany, and to a lesser extent France and the Netherlands, have been exporting their inflation to southern Europe for many years. All of this is propped up by the ECB (controlled primarily by Germany) buying up the debt of the weak sisters.There is no real "standing together" where the handful of powerful economies dominate the poor ones (PIGS). Ultimately, it's a shell game as populist movements start to push back. A currency union, without real political union, will not hold. Cheers 15 Sep 2018, 11:01 AM Reply 2 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @jaybeefr Agreed that having your own currency and being able to adjust the monetary policy based on what your country needs are a very important tools. 15 Sep 2018, 05:53 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @GermanETFBuyer "standing together is the only way to be strong" True except that I don't see Europe standing together. Have you looked at how different countries are handling (very differently) the immigration issue (just as an example)? Almost any (real) important decision can't be agreed by all voting members. 15 Sep 2018, 05:56 PM Reply 2 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @Emerald As always, the strong become stronger (usually) on the expense of the weak. Europe is no different. 15 Sep 2018, 05:57 PM Reply 1 Like Chancer Comments8445 | + Follow Looks bad for EU and EM. I am glad to be in neither. 15 Sep 2018, 09:41 AM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Same here @Chancer Ain't worth the risk 15 Sep 2018, 05:58 PM Reply 0 Like Veritas1010 Comments5029 | + Follow From a FOREX standpoint then what continues to hold the dollar down versus the Euro?Trump tariff’s? The US Fed is raising rates and Europe almost non-existent increases (Norway an exception, barely). A lot of “propping” of the Euro is going on! Just look at the SEK’s in Sweden. The Euro zone remains troubled, and the GBP will NOT be maintained at 1:30 v.USD with a real possibility of a hard Brexit.I will be shopping for bargains soon I hope. 15 Sep 2018, 10:23 AM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @Veritas1010 Good question. The possible answers: 1. Belief that the Fed is close to the end (of tightening) while the ECB only (about) to be starting. 2. Trump talking down the USD (and the Fed independence) every time it strengthening (tightening) "too much" 3. Trade war/s, tariffs, geo-political tension. 15 Sep 2018, 06:01 PM Reply 0 Like NV_GARY Comments10332 | + Follow What happens when the percentage of GDP rises well above the current 40%- can they every recover from that? How ? 15 Sep 2018, 10:28 AM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Hi @NV_GARY I presume you're asking about the ECB balance sheet (?) As far as I know, they have no ceiling. While they ask EU members to maintain certain level of deficits, they can buy as much as they want and inflate the balance sheet. Obviously, if and when they decide to start unwinding, the level they start from is (already) extremely high (so it may take a very long time). If they keep increasing the balance sheet the process would take longer. 15 Sep 2018, 06:05 PM Reply 0 Like shimo Comments31 | + Follow @FT: do you have some trade advise to hedge or to play this? 15 Sep 2018, 10:39 AM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @shimo I would short European sovereign bonds. That's the easiest, more sensible, way to play this. I would cut exposures to Italy and Spain. Too risky. One could shourt the EUFN (European banks) or specific banks (e.g. DB, SAN, BBVA, unicredit, etc.) Short EUR There are many ways how to play this 15 Sep 2018, 06:08 PM Reply 1 Like fujilomi Comments2760 | + Follow View the EU as a train wreck that will happen sooner or later, so have no direct exposure. Unfortunately, when it eventually blows up, there will be serious contagion effects, but the important question is when. 15 Sep 2018, 10:41 AM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Tend to agree @fujilomi 15 Sep 2018, 06:08 PM Reply 0 Like Hampton108 Comments2000 | + Follow Looks like the Brits may have it right, pay a small price now to prevent a large cost later. The Euros are stubborn, but reality is the EU going down, and the blame is going to fall at the feet of Merkel, who is no Thatcher. Her only way out is make good with the US and you know who, Or it’s going to be”Auf Wiedersehen”...!!!Not Long: Any Foreign Stocks 15 Sep 2018, 11:42 AM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Hi @Hampton108 More than the Brits being right (not sure) I'd say those are the Greeks (and Italians soon?) that were/are stupid. Instead of living with austerity and/or weak economy/growth for many years (decades maybe) - get out, start from scratch and CONTROL YOUR OWN DESTINY. I feel sorry for the weak more than being happy for the strong. 15 Sep 2018, 06:11 PM Reply 1 Like utente1 Comments26 | + Follow Ponte di Siena is the most dangerous of all. It can collapse anytime soon ... 15 Sep 2018, 12:12 PM Reply 0 Like Stockflyer Comments257 | + Follow @utente1 what is Ponte di Siena? city, region, company? 15 Sep 2018, 12:46 PM Reply 0 Like drmick Comments136 | + Follow @Stockflyer It's a typo - en.wikipedia.org/... 15 Sep 2018, 02:10 PM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @utente1 Likely will but they can keep pumping money into it forever and keeps it afloat artificially. 15 Sep 2018, 06:11 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Siena = Beautiful city, ugly bank 15 Sep 2018, 06:12 PM Reply 0 Like astro24102 Comments334 | + Follow Just wondering what the economics will look like when both Europe and US tighten monetary policy at the same approximate time. I doubt whether the BOJ will ever start tightening. So, interest rates are rising and govt's are tightening.....Hmmmmm should be interesting. 15 Sep 2018, 02:01 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » @astro24102 I think that the ECB will stop tightening before the Fed... it's going to be one of the shortest tightening cycles ever (if it ever began...) 15 Sep 2018, 06:14 PM Reply 1 Like Aricool Comments7864 | + Follow excellent warning article/analysis on how deep in the doodoo and cornered the ECB is. Thanks!QE is just one (direct) mechanism to support the bonds of debtor members; however, equally, if not more, important is the target2 balance system, which gives a completely fake appearance of a unified currency.Normally, CDS spread rates signal the fear/risk in the country, but b/c Germany backstops the ECB member's bonds, CDS spreads (and bond yields) tells us very little of what risks/problems are building. So, IMHO, the best place to look is at Germany's Target2 balance surplus. This is acting as a "fear index" signal of perceived risk by smart money investors, and it is at a record high since April, and is completely fake b/c these are effectively non-recourse loans by Germany to deadbeat EU members (PIGS).So, like the author says, if the ECB (i.e., Germany) blinks or wavers, all hell could break loose and Germany could easily see those failed bond auctions return (frequently). It does seem like Italy has a gun to Germany’s head. If the PIGS could band together I wonder if they could force Germany to create a Eurobond, an EU social welfare redistribution system, and an EU-wide bank deposit insurance, and in return Germany could force the PIGS to reform their economies to be much more competitive; w/o these basics in a “grand bargain” the EU is doomed.www.bloomberg.com/...ftalphaville.ft.com/... No country within the euro area has monetary sovereignty — that’s the point of the union, misguided or otherwise. Unlike the gold standard, there is no straightforward way to leave the euro, or even revalue against the other members of the bloc. Member states are therefore compelled to maintain hard pegs to the common currency at all times. global.handelsblatt.com/... Fear of Italy leaving the euro has driven Germany’s surplus with the European Central Bank to a record €956 billion. But economists say this surplus could vanish overnight if a real crisis hit. Germany’s surplus with the European Central Bank hit a new record in April. Germany is currently owed around €950 billion ($1.12 trillion) under the ECB’s Target2 clearing system, which balances out cross-border financial movements within the euro zone. That figure represents about half of Germany’s entire foreign asset surplus, the amount that the rest of the world theoretically owes the country. It sounds like a huge amount of money, but some economists say it may be worth far less than meets the eye. If the euro zone were to break up, or if a country like Italy left the system, the surplus could evaporate overnight. ………. Hans-Werner Sinn, the former head of Ifo Institute for Economic Research, a leading economic think tank, told Handelsblatt the figure was basically worthless — an “unsecured credit against the Eurosystem, which cannot be called in and which debtor countries pay no interest on.” A private company would simply write off the amount, he added. 15 Sep 2018, 02:08 PM Reply 4 Like Emerald Comments3582 | + Follow Aricool, excellent summary. It's basically a shell game being played by Germany. They have been winers so far, but that grip is tenuous. This is very scary stuff! 15 Sep 2018, 04:07 PM Reply 0 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Well said @Aricool "No country within the euro area has monetary sovereignty" "It does seem like Italy has a gun to Germany’s head." "there is no straightforward way to leave the euro" Bingo! = such a mess... 15 Sep 2018, 06:18 PM Reply 1 Like DD Speaks Comments91 | + Follow "View the EU as a train wreck that will happen sooner or later, so have no direct exposure. Unfortunately, when it eventually blows up, there will be serious contagion effects, but the important question is when."Funny how all the comments are in this vein. How the EU is teetering on the brink and will soon crash and disintegrate and would never manage without the help of 'the Big Brother'? Seriously?You seem to forget how the US served us and the rest of the world the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 when the whole financial system seemed to be teetering on the brink? This time we may manage that all on our own without Big Brother's help, though. Unless you beat us to the punch...Italy should finally learn the lesson that if you're borrowing you are supposed to be able to pay your loans back and not expect others always to chime in when you overindulge in loans. Yes, if Italy's economy has a crash of sorts, it will create problem in EU and at least a recession. However, I think it is time that Italy finally learns its lesson. Now it is just trying to extort ECB.In the long run, it may be healthy that we go through a good crisis here, so that certain countries learn to live within their means. Earlier it was Greece who with their creative accounting and astounding deficits created a crisis, now it seems to be Italy's turn.I still expect EM and EU to remain intact after this crisis as well, and if not, maybe Italy should go their own way. And by the way, isn't US deficits and lending levels also a tad worrying? Trillions more in debt á la Trump may not be so healthy in the long run, wouldn't you say? 15 Sep 2018, 02:31 PM Reply 1 Like The Fortune Teller, Marketplace Contributor Comments13072 | + Follow Author’s reply » Hi @DD Speaks"isn't US deficits and lending levels also a tad worrying? Trillions more in debt á la Trump may not be so healthy in the long run, wouldn't you say?" Certainly agree but they can print money as much as they want, whenever they want, without the need to get the approval of so many countries to do so. 15 Sep 2018, 06:22 PM Reply 2 Like Aricool Comments7864 | + Follow The funny (sad?) part of this recent (doomed?) EU experiment is that it is déjà vu, all over again….Based on history, and widely accepted definition of 'insanity' (repeating the same thing expecting different results), the EU is certifiably insane!www.capitalandconflict.com/... Nordvig only goes back to 1910. He missed a much older currency union called the Latin Monetary Union (LMU). France, Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland were the founding members in 1865. That’s a very big chunk of global GDP at the time. What’s striking is how the same problems plagued the monetary unions of the past. The same culprits pop up. The same flaws are inherent. And the same abuses take hold shortly before failure. Researchers wrote of the LMU in the Review of Development Finance that, “Throughout our results, it is clear that Italy’s volatile economic conditions and policies distinguish it from other countries, in spite of its membership of the LMU since its inception.” Another issue for the LMU was that countries devalued their common currencies by debasing the gold and silver contents. The coins were supposed to be interchangeable, but had completely different precious metals content. The purer ones were swapped out, horded and melted down. The impure currencies circulated more widely. In the story of the LMU, Italy broke ranks in this way first: Less than a few months after ratification of the treaty, Italy suspended the convertibility of her banknotes into metal coins and put into circulation huge numbers of small denomination banknotes. Italy’s small silver coins, in turn, flowed into France, Belgium, and other neighboring economies. You’ll never guess who was next: Greece’s admission to the LMU was associated with a similar problem. To avoid a massive flood of small Greek coins, Greece agreed that all coins would be produced at the Paris Mint and shipped directly to Greece. However, small Greek silver coins were found circulating in Paris within weeks after the agreement was put in force. Over in the Soviet Union, it was much the same. The satellite nations were subject to Russian monetary rule in the “rouble zone”. But they were able to take advantage of the shared currency by “exporting their inflation”. ……
  10. twinkle

    Tram & Bus Incidents

    They could compete with the TT for the "most dangerous ride on the island",FFS whats next on this fucking shithole.
  11. twinkle

    Rally Under Threat...

    You're last sentence is spot on he should find another job, QUICK and cease fucking up the island. He hasn't got the brain and would not know what "parody" means, a total waste of space this guy.
  12. twinkle

    Isle of Man News and Politics

    Where did this "alleged" slagging of take place?, on MF or elsewhere!?.
  13. twinkle

    Isle of Man News and Politics

    Who's the AG now? And what did the Vader say or do that may upset him.is free speech fucked up now?
  14. twinkle

    Bus Crash Birch Hill

    I rarely use my handbrake, only when the missus gives me grief.
  15. twinkle

    Bogus Corporation worker on the loose

    they are all bogus as none of them have any brain to carry out any MEANINGFUL labour.
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