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Everything posted by wrighty

  1. This is not Bertrand’s paradox, at least according to Wiki, and is more akin to the Monty Hall problem. If you draw a decision tree of the six possible outcomes, given that you picked a gold coin, go back a node from those 3 outcomes and 2 indicate that the other coin in the box is gold. Hence 2/3.
  2. Bands that have played in the Isle of Man

    Best gig I’ve been to over here was ‘The Darkness’ in the Villa a few years ago. Yes I know Justin Hawkins is a cock and their lyrics are juvenile, but they did a great show with superb stagecraft and audience interaction. Another good one here a few years ago was Jools, also at the Villa. Talking of Saxon, I saw them about 30 years ago in a small place in The Midlands (capacity 800, 1000 people in). They brought a 20,000W PA system and I saw one guy leave with his ears bleeding. True story!
  3. Abort67

    I’d like to see a definition of that. Non-intervention and keeping comfortable is one thing, active ‘termination’ is another entirely. Can you give specific examples?
  4. Quotations

    "Sincerity is the most important thing. Once you've learned how to fake that you can achieve anything" - John Rebus (Ian Rankin)
  5. I suspect we’re the same - I put the values in for W and S and simplified to remove fractions and pi, and you’ve got 1-sin^2 instead of cos^2. Be interested to see the result of your numerical integration. Don’t even try to include the earth’s curvature - we all know the earth is really flat anyway - what would a uniform current even mean on the surface of a sphere? For a 1 mile radius on the earth the effect would be negligible.
  6. A win for common sense.

    But you might if you admit to going over 24 in a 20 in a national paper.
  7. A win for common sense.

    This guy said 24, using the 10%+2 rule which is said to be the speed you have to exceed to get done. I suspect he was doing 30.
  8. Here’s my thinking. I assumed that the ship maintains its maximum speed, 2pi, which of course is relative to the moving water. It adjusts its direction such that the resultant course is along the circle. Using the cosine rule, you get a quadratic equation for the speed at whatever point you’re on the circular course. It turns out that the speed is cos x + sqrt(15+cos^2 x) times pi/2. Integrate the reciprocal of this over -pi to pi and you get your answer. If the current cancelled out overall it would be 1 hour. I got it to be just over, corroborating China’s initial suspicion that it doesn’t.
  9. To be pedantic China, the current would have to be strictly greater than 2pi for it not to work. If the current were exactly 2pi the boat’s speed would be instantaneously zero at a single point on the circle but since there’s an acceleration it would move through this point and carry on. Akin to if you throw a ball straight up in the air its speed is zero at the apex, but it doesn’t stop
  10. I've solved it, but it ends in an integral that I don't think I can integrate! Numerically my calculator comes up with 0.8 hours. Is this right? Edited to add - No it isn't! Calculator was in degree mode, should have been radians. 1.0498 hours is my revised answer.
  11. 13 year-old cyclist forced off road by tractor

    In terms of personal safety, yes it is. As a cyclist you’re inherently far more vulnerable than a car driver, so you really need all of your senses working for you.
  12. 13 year-old cyclist forced off road by tractor

    That's something I can't understand. It's fine in the gym, but when out and about either on a bike or running, you really need to hear what's going on. Aren't they even banned in the Parish Walk? Sensibly, if so.
  13. The Mountain Circuit card game

    Make your mind up. Or is that something you never do?
  14. Demise of the model?

    Probably. In about 25 years.
  15. Equality of access

    So a deaf lady gets a sign language interpreter for a concert, and then sues the organisers as they didn’t translate the support bands. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-42776454 In my view, good on her for getting the interpreter. But, taking the promoters to court because it wasn’t good enough is a step too far. Nobody likes support acts anyway. Instead of an interpreter the promoter could have put subtitles on a screen - that would also be reasonable as the law dictates. I think they should be applauded rather than sued. Be interesting to see if this becomes the norm at rock concerts. There’s a spoof band called ‘Steel Panther’ whose lyrics are somewhat ‘racy’ (eg. “My heart belongs to you, but my cock is community property”) - be entertaining to see their songs mimed/signed.
  16. Public 'prepared' to pay for healthcare

    You're about 20 years out of date. The 'Senior Registrar' grade was phased out with the Calman reforms, in about 1996. In the olden days, prior to that, a Senior Registrar was indeed technically a 'Doctor in Training', synonymous with a Junior Doctor, and could stay in the grade until appointed as a consultant, often into their early 40s. Part of the Calman reforms was to shorten higher surgical training to a fixed 6 years, and move the bottleneck further downstream. The upshot was that most consultants were then appointed in their mid 30s - I was 35. It's been changed again since then, with many specialties having 'run-through' training for 8 years or even less after the foundation years, such that consultants are now appointed in their early 30s if they don't cock about bumming round Australia for years before starting for real.
  17. Public 'prepared' to pay for healthcare

    I don’t know surgeons who won’t accept their limitations. We send patients to more specialised colleagues in the UK all the time. In addition, I get the same salary/pension whether I refer stuff across or keep it for myself. Why on earth would anyone ‘just have a go’ when it’s outside their area of expertise. It would cost the island a fortune to send all non-acute stuff across. Start with joint replacements. We do about 250 a year on island. That’s about £2million to the nhs, before factoring in travel costs, and is based on nhs tariff, not the fees they could charge if they wanted to. Even outpatients - we see about 100,000 here per year at Noble’s - there’s another £10million plus travel. In addition, there’s not enough emergency surgery here to keep everyone’s skills up. I have to deal with one or two emergency spine operations per year. If I didn’t also do elective procedures that would not be safe. If you get rid of non-acute surgery here the logical conclusion is that it all goes.
  18. Public 'prepared' to pay for healthcare

    Not right I’m afraid. Junior doctor is synonymous with ‘Doctor in training’ - these are doctors working their apprenticeship to become independent practitioners - GPs or consultants. There are plenty of doctors who are neither consultants, GPs, nor in training. Some of them work alongside consultants and are very senior. Some work at intermediate or junior levels in the hierarchy. They have titles such as Associate Specialist, Staff Grade, Specialty Doctor etc. Many of them are anything but ‘junior’.
  19. Public 'prepared' to pay for healthcare

    @John Wright - arguing with @woody2 is like playing chess with a pigeon etc. Don’t do it. Your consultant pay scale is wrong - on the IOM it goes higher, and I for one think that we get well paid. Locum pay is a major problem, but this is due to an abject failure of workforce planning - something impossible in medicine given the lead time between starting out at med school and being a consultant. That’s about 4 parliamentary terms. I think we should pay for healthcare - simply because of the principle that if something costs nothing it is valued similarly. The NI argument is trite and fake in any case - NI was more about paying for sick pay and pensions than funding a health service in the 21st century.
  20. National batter gypos day

    I’m sure Viz once did a comic strip entitled ‘The Thieving Gypsy Bastards’ and were similarly criticised. The next issue they ran an apology piece along the lines of ‘Gypsies save drowning kittens and give loads to charity’. Who knows which one was the satire?
  21. Australian 'flu - FWIW ---

    The effects of flu depend not so much on the viral strain, but more on how your individual immune system reacts to it. Too strong an immune response and you get SIRS and die. Too weak and you get overwhelmed by virus and die. Just right and you barely notice it. I think I’ve had it - last Monday I felt pretty bad and went to bed as soon as I got in. Rough on Tuesday, but better by the evening. I’ve had proper flu before, in 2003. Presumably that year my immune response was a bit too strong - I was off work for a week. The immune system is a fascinating thing - I studied it for an extra year at med school but 26 years later I’m hopelessly out of date beyond the established basics. I do know however that it’s not as simple, in the case of influenza, as just getting a jab and you’ll be fine.
  22. Kids Bike Wanted / Swap

    I sent you a PM about this yesterday.
  23. Equality of access

    Brazil? Perhaps reread your post
  24. Equality of access

    Are you talking about from going to pop concerts here? Like you say, easy to think up extreme examples. I just felt in this case that after being challenged, the concert promoters took steps to satisfy the complainant, quite reasonable ones in my opinion, and instead of a thank you letter they received a summons for not doing enough. As for exclusion, and medicine/law? I don't think you can be a surgeon if you're blind or deaf, or if you've only got one hand. Law I think is less restrictive although you'd know better than me what impairments are reasonable and which ones aren't.
  25. Equality of access

    This whole thing has reminded me of a story I once heard from a Twisted Sister concert. Lead 'singer' Dee Snider was angry that a certain section of the crowd didn't seem to be making as much noise, or jumping about as much, as the rest of them. He started calling them out for being boring, and encouraged the rest of the audience to join in with his abuse, and they started throwing things at them. You guessed it - it was the wheelchair section