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Manx Bean

Burglary Detection Rates

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There could be a plethora of reasons why the rates are not as good as historically. Lets get the first ones from the anti brigade out of the way might save them typing ! ...... The force is shit ... the coppers are all bent .... depends who you are and can buy your way out of bother ........ no one give s a toss etc etc. Now lets look at some possible scenarios ...

Historically burglaries were committed by a pretty small pool of people who were mostly known to the force as a starting point for suspects, and again were mostly on fingerprint and DNA database. The force profile both in terms of numbers and experience levels has changed. The population of the Island has changed there are far more (possible) first time offenders for the island, I did say possible not saying the people who come here are a particular problem. The same applies to visiting teams of burglars where it is very easy to come and go as you please generally unhindered by any checks. All these factors add up to an increased difficulty in detecting burglary offenders.

Which factor is mostly to account for a low detection rate is arguable but low staffing levels and diversions from specialist roles to block holes in other areas does not help I am sure !

 

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But I thought the "recent" burglary epidemic was carried out by some international super gang of thieves who would put the Ocean Eleven's crew to shame?

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2 hours ago, RIchard Britten said:

But I thought the "recent" burglary epidemic was carried out by some international super gang of thieves who would put the Ocean Eleven's crew to shame?

Well they're certainly putting the local plod to shame :rolleyes:

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Before getting too excited about the failure or otherwise to catch crooks, it's probably worth looking at the actual figures for the past few years:

2013-14:  46 + 48 = 94

2014-15:  144 + 67 = 211

2015-16:  67 + 30 = 97

2016-17:  47 + 31 = 78

The first figure is the one for Burglary Dwelling, second for Burglary Other Than Dwelling and then the total.

In both categories the figure is the second lowest ever, the combined total (the Report is a bit ambiguous here) "the lowest number of such offences recorded since the modern offence of burglary was created by the Theft Act 1981".  The combined detection rate (14% - 11 crimes out of 78) is indeed lower than in the past, but the trouble when numbers are so low, is that even arresting or not a single person can make a big difference to the rates.  Even if you do arrest them, they may not confess to all their past offences (depending on how out of it they were at the time, they may not even remember them).  

So it's all a bit random and it's wise not to make too much of what look like dramatic changes when you just look at the percentages.  Of course equally if the detection rate soars next year, it doesn't mean the Police have got amazingly more competent either.  It just means they have got lucky - it's what happens to detection rates when the number of crimes is so low.

And that is the most striking thing about these figures - how low crime rates are in historic terms.  The spate of burglaries in 2014-15 (especially early 2015) aside, numbers have been going down considerably over the last two decades.  These burglary figures are less than half  even what we saw as recently as 2008-09 or 2009-10.   I've pointed out before that this is a widespread phenomenon in a lot of the Western World.  Despite all the moaning from older generations, the crime rate is actually far less than it was in the 'good old days'.

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And so very many of these burglaries would be prevented if people simply locked doors and took other simple security precautions. 

 

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1 minute ago, Derek Flint said:

And so very many of these burglaries would be prevented if people simply locked doors and took other simple security precautions. 

 

Guns and attack dogs.

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5 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

And so very many of these burglaries would be prevented if people simply locked doors and took other simple security precautions. 

 

That's good to know. 

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8 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Before getting too excited about the failure or otherwise to catch crooks, it's probably worth looking at the actual figures for the past few years:

2013-14:  46 + 48 = 94

2014-15:  144 + 67 = 211

2015-16:  67 + 30 = 97

2016-17:  47 + 31 = 78

The first figure is the one for Burglary Dwelling, second for Burglary Other Than Dwelling and then the total.

In both categories the figure is the second lowest ever, the combined total (the Report is a bit ambiguous here) "the lowest number of such offences recorded since the modern offence of burglary was created by the Theft Act 1981".  The combined detection rate (14% - 11 crimes out of 78) is indeed lower than in the past, but the trouble when numbers are so low, is that even arresting or not a single person can make a big difference to the rates.  Even if you do arrest them, they may not confess to all their past offences (depending on how out of it they were at the time, they may not even remember them).  

So it's all a bit random and it's wise not to make too much of what look like dramatic changes when you just look at the percentages.  Of course equally if the detection rate soars next year, it doesn't mean the Police have got amazingly more competent either.  It just means they have got lucky - it's what happens to detection rates when the number of crimes is so low.

And that is the most striking thing about these figures - how low crime rates are in historic terms.  The spate of burglaries in 2014-15 (especially early 2015) aside, numbers have been going down considerably over the last two decades.  These burglary figures are less than half  even what we saw as recently as 2008-09 or 2009-10.   I've pointed out before that this is a widespread phenomenon in a lot of the Western World.  Despite all the moaning from older generations, the crime rate is actually far less than it was in the 'good old days'.

Am I the only analyst seeing a 200% + increase somewhere there? And maybe a future soft touch?

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