Neil Down

Not what's wanted

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I seem to remember a similar thread a while ago discussing whether the IOM was a safe haven for paedos and other posters giving up when one contributor ripped thorough it accusing everyone else of talking nonsense. It's a serious issue though. There are some good points to consider here if those are anywhere near genuine figures. The number of people getting done for downloading kiddie porn here does seem to be very high from the number of prosecutions that hit the papers. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight

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A long article, some of the links don't work (and some quite tenuous) but the thrust of it is shocking. Though the statistics about IP addresses and sources probably need further scrutiny by those in the know. It's worth looking at the site where those statistics originated from for an accurate breakdown (toward the end of the article).

There are those whose viewpoint is that 'it was all a long time ago'; as if the passage of time somehow justifies consigning the atrocious abuse to history. I'm sure there were a few groans when Tim Baker MHK called for the re-opening of the Knottfield investigation. Cathy Fox implies that justice was/has not been properly served. Maybe some other perpetrators will emerge, who knows?

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I guess I'd believe just about anything nowadays but those stats do seem incredible. Could it be a total aberration in the data collection? Should be easy enough to follow up those IP addresses.

Seeing the source of the blog in the link though, one can only hope that the allegations have similar substance to those against Ted Heath, i.e, very little.

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4 minutes ago, woolley said:

I guess I'd believe just about anything nowadays but those stats do seem incredible. Could it be a total aberration in the data collection? Should be easy enough to follow up those IP addresses.

Seeing the source of the blog in the link though, one can only hope that the allegations have similar substance to those against Ted Heath, i.e, very little.

Some scary stats though:

"The Isle of Man has the highest proportion of the population per 100,000 downloading Child Abuse Material (CAM) by approximately 10 times that of the next worst

The Isle of Man has over 30 times more downloaders comparatively per 100,000 than the UK

The UK has 5.7 downloaders per 100,000 compared with 175 per 100,000 for the island. In other words if the IOM had the same proportion as the UK, it would have 5 downloaders. It appears to have 149 at least."

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Unless of course the long rumoured and much denied relocation of UK perverts to the Island has more substance to it than we realise! Even then, the stats would still be incredible.

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It's actually complete nonsense. Anyone can make up any IP address they want, pretend to be anywhere they want, and the .im domain name is used by companies all over the world who use it because it stands for instant message or instant messaging and not just Isle of Man. Also, the methodology of tracking said IPs is about as scientific as Amy Burns' IP tabbing bullshit. I don't believe it for a second. Just as the Isle of Man is used as a conduit for money to avoid tax, it seems likely nonses in the dark web may be pretending to be on this island to get around the law, without the Isle of Man actually having any involvement. It would make sense: if they pretended to be in the UK, UK authorities could likely track and quickly conclude it is a made up IP. By using an offshore jurisdiction, they no doubt know that it would be a more complex process, that we don't have the full resources of the UK Constabulary, and so it would take longer to figure out that an IP is fake or whatever. I think the word press blog is making way too many assumptions and their methodology is flawed.

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5 minutes ago, woolley said:

Unless of course the long rumoured and much denied relocation of UK perverts to the Island has more substance to it than we realise! Even then, the stats would still be incredible.

Well if that's capable of being debated without the usual circular distractions I think that would be a good point to discuss. There has been the suggestion that being "off the radar" by moving to the IOM is attractive in some circles as the sort of checks they undertake here for jobs, residency and police potentially allow people to stay off the UK and European radar as checks aren't as comprehensive and data isn't perhaps fully shared on both sides. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight

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You've got to be really careful not to have different sample sizes bias perceptions. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insensitivity_to_sample_size

The Island could have exactly the same prevalence as the UK, but as it is a far far smaller population the variance from the mean can be far larger. 

It is a really common data analysis error and happens whenever you compare samples of different size. 

The wiki page is pretty good at explaining it. 

I seem to remember a similar issue with cancer rates at Nobles not too long ago.

 

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3 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Well if that's capable of being debated without the usual circular distractions I think that would be a good point to discuss. There has been the suggestion that being "off the radar" by moving to the IOM is attractive in some circles as the sort of checks they undertake here for jobs, residency and police potentially allow people to stay off the UK and European radar as checks aren't as comprehensive and data isn't perhaps fully shared on both sides. 

I agree. However, I would still bet that those stats are sheer bunkum. It defies all reason and logic.

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3 minutes ago, Chinahand said:

You've got to be really careful not to have different sample sizes bias perceptions. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insensitivity_to_sample_size

The Island could have exactly the same prevalence as the UK, but as it is a far far smaller population the variance from the mean can be far larger. 

Insensitivity bias is geared more towards expectations or predictions. It doesn't explain the huge discrepancy in actual measurements (although some other form of statistical error or survey flaw might be involved.)

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What a load of tosh.

If the IOM showed a 50% increase over the UK I'd find that shocking - but believable.

But 3,000% ?

Absolute bollocks. Simply doesn't happen in datasets like this.

For the author to write "The figures are assumed to be correct, and there is nothing to show they are not" rather than "I've clearly got a totally fucked up methodology" suggests the author(s) has an agenda.

 

 

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It's a wordpress account. It's retarded. Nothing to see here

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17 minutes ago, woolley said:

I agree. However, I would still bet that those stats are sheer bunkum. It defies all reason and logic.

Yes agree but there have been a lot of cases reported in the press in the last 3-4 years for such a small Island too. Not saying the figures are as big as suggested in that link but we do seem to have a visible problem with kiddy porn downloaders. There was yet another in the paper the other week and a lad on trial for trying to groom a 13 year old over an internet chat room. 

3,000 images 

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=33468&headline=This man had 2%2C912 indecent images of children&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2017

900,000 images 

http://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/jail-term-for-indecent-child-images-guilty/

Both in the last year. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
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