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monasqueen

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Posts posted by monasqueen

  1. 6 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

    The main takeaway there is dont shop at Tesco.  I never queued really much at all at Shoprite.

    You didn't experience the wondrous snaking queue round and round the back car park of Shopshite, then.

    Tesco was usually bad, and M&S was too.

    All wonderful when it was cold and wet. 

    • Like 1
  2. There are people in Jersey who are jealous of our position.

    "THE government has moved to reassure Islanders about the spread of Covid-19 in the wake of confirmed cases affecting two schools and the Fire and Rescue Service. A sharp rise in the Island’s tally of known active cases, which has trebled during the past fortnight, has sparked fears that coronavirus is now present in the community, rather than stemming exclusively from arriving passengers and their contacts." https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/10/16/official-reassurance-after-surge-in-covid-19-cases/

    "Border incompetence has led to this position whereas Guernsey and the Isle of Man have no such issues." https://www.facebook.com/jerseyeveningpost/?ref=py_c

     

    • Confused 1
  3. Someone has come low over our house and into Laxey Bay, within the last few minutes. WTF????

    I presume they must have jumped off Snaefell somewhere.

    Is there an outfit in the IOM that does such things? I've never seen one here before.

  4. If you look at the overspend on pretty well every project that there is out there - the Prom etc..., should anyone be surprised that Manx Radio is incapable of making a profit?

    It needs advertising to help pay its way, but some of the adverts are so woeful that, hardly surprising, a lot of people say they can't listen to them and switch off.

  5. China has been well on top of ways to deal with this virus from the very start (apart from letting Wuhan whistleblowers die from it.)

    It leads me to believe that a) they are massively massaging their statistics, and/or b) knowing how to deal with virus escapes from Wuhan, because they get them all the time????

  6. 23 minutes ago, monasqueen said:

    As luck has it, Manchester is being forced to toe the line.

    There was a potential problem in people piling onto trains - travel is supposed to be for essential purposes only, and people are supposed to stay local, though how that is supposed to be policed is another matter.

     

    Sorry, false information. Lancashire is now in Tier 3. Manchester is still being leaned on.

  7. 15 minutes ago, Banker said:

    All that’s going to happen this weekend with Bunham not cooperating is that all Liverpool crowd will be on trains etc to Manchester this weekend to ram the pubs etc

    As luck has it, Manchester is being forced to toe the line.

    There was a potential problem in people piling onto trains - travel is supposed to be for essential purposes only, and people are supposed to stay local, though how that is supposed to be policed is another matter.

     

    • Like 1
  8. Jersey keeps getting infections in the community. They've just closed a primary school, and one of their firemen has tested positive, so that's his watch off watch. Not a good advert for us to follow.

    Guernsey looks as though it is getting cold feet over going into their next phase. The ranks don't seem to be breaking just yet.

    "The CCA previously set out a model for the next phase, ‘phase 5c’, which would have seen the introduction of testing on arrival. It would also have meant that arrivals from Group B countries would not be required to self-isolate after receiving a negative result from the test taken on arrival.

    However, in recent weeks the prevalence of Covid-19 in all our neighbouring jurisdictions, and notably in the UK regions where the Bailiwick has its main travel links, has risen considerably, and it appears unlikely that this trend will be turned around in the very short term."

    • Like 4
  9. A couple of peregrines flew over yesterday. Looked like in flight training for the youngster. They were definitely playing in the thermals below us.

    Visitors for food are now mainly hoodies, rooks, jackdaws, and a couple of herring gulls.

    Sparrows and starlings, which used to come mob handed, have all but disappeared.

    I'm still seeing an occasional robin and a couple of back-caps, which all love the pheasant berries (Himalayan Honeysuckle).

    Not a lot else visiting nowadays. 

    • Sad 1
  10. 2 hours ago, Utah 01 said:

    The statistics are crystal clear.  For the vast majority of the population this virus is a relative non-event.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

    But everyone seems scared to put out any figures. Some people have suggested that 99% of the population gets through it. That means that 1% die. Convert that to our Island's population, and over 800 people will die. A much larger number will have been through hospital (or been treated in the car park, because of lack of space) and a substantial number will be left with "long covid".

    Is that what you want?

    None of the people who are arguing for "freedom" has any idea what to do to stop the virus killing loads of people.

    Argue all you like, but until someone can come up with a plan that will work, we are probably better off doing the will of the experts who are advising government.

    The Torygraph article says nothing at all that will help.

    It is a commonplace of science, medicine and everyday life that in order to solve a problem you must first of all frame it correctly. If you ask the right questions, finding solutions can be straightforward. But if you ask the wrong ones you can grope in the dark forever. So having the right perspective really matters.

    Unfortunately, the Government’s Covid approach has all the hallmarks of groping in the dark. In the name of “keeping everyone safe” we have endured local and national lockdowns, social distancing, masks, curfews, shutting cafés and pubs. Now we face further restrictions, based on naive modelling and virtually no evidence.

    Our societal response doesn’t seem to have advanced much since 1665, the year of the Great Plague. Getting the framing wrong then cost many lives. If you believe (as people did) that plague is caused by corrupted air, not by a bacterium, you will take the wrong actions and make things worse. The authorities locked ill people in their homes with all who lived there, increasing overall mortality several-fold. Believing, paradoxically, that dogs and cats spread the plague, they arranged widespread culls, facilitating spread through a burgeoning rat population and their attendant fleas.

    Funnily enough, Covid is actually carried on the air, so at least we have understood that bit correctly. But there has been a dangerous mission-creep since March. Then we were told a three-week lockdown was needed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. But this has metamorphosed from the ugly caterpillar of protecting the NHS into the even uglier maggot of controlling case numbers. The wrong framing is that “case numbers” are being equated with “positive” tests.

    What is a “case” of Covid? Let’s say you developed a viral cold last winter. Were you a “case” of a viral respiratory infection? On a theoretical level the answer must be yes. But on a practical, real-world level, the answer is no: you went to work and carried on with life. You were invisible to the authorities. Let’s say it got a bit worse and you saw your GP. Still no. You decided to take a couple of days off. Still no – you might show up in sick leave statistics, but not as a case of respiratory infection. If you got so far as being admitted to hospital with serious illness, you would show up as a “case” – a tiny proportion of those who actually had the illness.

    The contrast with today is clear. Covid was made a notifiable disease in February, obliging all “cases” to be reported to the authorities. Since the only way to identify Covid is with a lab test, positive tests have been equated with positive “cases”. Back then, it was claimed there were no asymptomatic cases, but we now know that 90 per cent or more of people have Covid asymptomatically. A positive test is clearly not a positive “case”.

    We also know that Covid affects different groups of people very differently: there is a thousand-fold difference in the severity of the disease between young and old. So the meaning of a positive test cannot be equated with its meaning in March, because the incidence of the disease at present has a completely different demographic.

    Then there’s the issue of the tests themselves. Plausible false positive rates make up a substantial proportion of “positives” as unverified mass testing is rapidly rolled out. There is profound uncertainty around what low viral titres – found in a high proportion of young asymptomatic people – mean. Most probably very low infectivity. T-cell (as opposed to antibody) testing indicates that many people already have resistance to the virus. The more we know about this virus, the more it is like viruses we are already familiar with.

    And yet, the Government is looking for an easy way out of the complex mass of restrictions they have devised; “control” the “cases” and wait for a vaccine to save the day. Unfortunately the former is a classic example of rubbish in, rubbish out, and the latter is unlikely to happen effectively, given previous attempts.

    It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good. Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 3
  11. 2 minutes ago, Utah 01 said:

    Remember, this is The State making its case to continue a policy of repression of 99% of the population for whom this CV is a non-event

    Where do the stats showing 99% being repressed come from?

    And the stats showing that it is a non-event for that number?

    • Like 1
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