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Roger Mexico

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Everything posted by Roger Mexico

  1. You underestimate them. An economist makes incorrect predictions and then explains how they were really right all along.
  2. Testing does more than that - it identifies your cases, so they can stop spreading the disease and possible be treated. But there are no standalone solutions and a whole range of different things have to be used: testing, tack and trace, genomics, isolation, social measures, lockdowns, vaccination, travel restrictions and so on. It seems to me the real difference in arguments about this is between those who realise this and those who think there is some sort of magic bullet - be it testing, vaccination or just pretending the virus isn't there - that will miraculously solve everything.
  3. I'd definitely put Economics at the end. A lot of academic economics is like theology without the intellectual rigour. They think because they use lots of mathematics it means they are right, but if you start off from dodgy assumptions you just get dodgier without noticing it. (I suppose it's a bit like astrology in the Middle Ages in this regard).
  4. I've no objection to them charging for certification when demanded by external countries, though in practice (as John has outlined before) time constraints make that less useful than it might be. The real problem is more that it is another part of the anti-testing mindset that we have seen through most of this. We started off enthusiastically but the middle managers worked out how to use Zoom and Quayle recovered from his bout of Covid and it slowed down. We failed to learn from the successes and mistakes of others. Even now we allow people to avoid being tested with 21 days isola
  5. But £8-10 million for a three week lockdown (and counting) is perfectly acceptable. "Penny wise and pound foolish" sums up the policy here as in so much else. The £50 seems to be no more than a figure dreamt by some 'clever' civil servant so as they can show they are 'making' money and so get a pay rise. The result has been that they view testing as some precious commodity that the plebs have to pay for and should be rationed out. The result is the current mess - if testing had been free they could have introduced for returnees earlier and so stopped this latest outbreak. Because
  6. Obviously you can vote in national elections in as many countries as you have citizenship or whatever the qualifications are there. It's just that it illegal to vote in different constituencies in the same UK Westminster election - though it's not easy to police. The second home franchise is supposed to be limited to those who spend time equally in the two places, though there have been rumours of abuse of that, especially in Cornwall.
  7. They're entitled to vote because they are over-16 and have been resident in the Island for more than a year. Just like everyone else is. You shouldn't be on two electoral rolls on the Island, but you can be in the UK. Students are the largest category, but second home owners can qualify as well. What you can't do is vote in more than one place though (except in local elections when it's for different authorities).
  8. That's the number waiting on results at the end of the day, I suspect these are often the cases where they are deciding to redo the test in the case of an inconclusive result, though some may be just swabs that came in after the last batch was processed. The actual number of tests giving results was 272 in this case.
  9. Can be and I think are obliged to be if they fulfil residence and nationality requirement. Obviously most will be British citizens anyway, but the UK allows all Commonwealth and Irish citizens full voting rights as well (sort of inherited from days of the Empire when they were all British). In addition EU citizens used to be able to vote in local elections and to devolved parliaments, though I'm not sure what happens there now. The Isle of Man is pretty odd in that the requirement to vote is based on residence only (if legal) with no nationality requirements as well. All these King Bil
  10. But my point was that the mere fact of travelling off-Island and back and then co-isolating was going to produce this situation. And the high levels of UK and international infection was perfectly predictable. In actual fact the lockdown has mitigated the situation to some extent.
  11. Actually one of the interesting things that Rachel pointed out in her last post was that the Covid-19 virus doesn't mutate as fast as some other similar viruses . This was something noted generally by last Summer when it was seen that new strains of the virus were comparatively slow to emerge - we're only seeing them now at a time when there are many millions of people infected, and so more places for mutation in how the virus works to take place. This makes it pretty much ideal for genomics. It changes fast enough that there will usually be some genetic difference between the virus car
  12. To be fair they are living on the Island for the majority of the year, so they are residents in practical terms.
  13. But the College could say that they wouldn't be able take any students back for the following term if they decided to leave the Island. Or that they would have to isolate individually on return and any breaking of quarantine would be treated as a criminal offence by the Manx authorities. The College certainly couldn't have predicted the current lockdown, but if they had been operating normally that would make the situation with the returning students more dangerous that currently. What they must have seen though is that the level of Covid infection in the UK and among international tr
  14. I wasn't sure what the situation was, though I assumed the day students would be working from home - at least for the moment. But I saw that some international students did stay on the Island and wasn't sure if they were back at the College or had remained with host families or what. But it's true that such a large 'bubble' is unmanageable. I'm not sure if the College has split them up into groups, though keeping teenagers from meeting up when you don't want them to is always a problem. But a group that size could theoretically be playing pass the parcel with the virus for a year.
  15. The French have always been weird about vaccines, so it's not a new thing.
  16. I think all the class warfare is making people miss the point here. If you look at the statement issued by the College: King William’s College can confirm that the cluster of positive Covid cases found on the island yesterday (Sunday) involves some of its international boarding students. A total of 26 students returned to the island on January 4th and have been quarantining in a bubble on the College site ever since. Seven of them tested positive following their test on day 13. The children are 16 and 17-year-olds who attend the College in order to study the International Bacca
  17. The trouble with that is that is you keep on analysing smaller and smaller subsamples of data, you end up with great uncertainty over what the true value is. So that 89% has a 'confidence interval' of 52% - 97% it's that uncertain. But as that BMJ letter also points out, the real problem is that we have no evidence for how a single-dose protects people beyond that period. It may well be that without a booster protection begins to fall off, and with too long a gap the second one, when it is eventually administered, may then be less effective. There's no evidence available.
  18. So Edge's question is basically just asking for an update, though I doubt much has changed since September. To be fair it isn't even the dumbest MNH-related question asked to Skelly in this Tynwald. That probably goes to (how did you guess?): The Hon. Member for Arbory, Castletown and Malew (Mr Moorhouse) to ask the Minister for Enterprise – “If he will publish the Minutes of the 2019 Annual General Meeting of The Friends of Manx National Heritage?” It then has to be explained gently to him that FMNH are a separate charity over whom Tynwald has no control.
  19. The strange thing about Gibraltar is that they did really well in the Spring with hardly any cases, then had a bit of blip in the Autumn and then it went horrendous from mid-December. It's a good warning not to get complacent (from Google): Not our rulers will take any notice, as this tweet today shows: As at 4pm 19 January there are no new cases of #COVID19 in the #IsleofMan. Chief Minister Howard Quayle MHK, ‘This is great news for the Island. Although there is still some way to go the early signs are very positive that the measures we have in place are working.’
  20. Actually you get them from ONS sometimes from the death certificate data[1]. There aren't that many where it's 'with' rather than 'from' (ie it's not given as the main cause), but obviously the higher the rate of infection in the population, the more likely someone who dies from other causes is likely to have it. [1] Which will be a bit different because it's possible for someone to have tested positive but the doctors treating them think it hasn't had an effect on their death. I assume the Gibraltar figures are anyone who tests positive.
  21. It may be designed to bring out an interesting answer though. This probably isn't tourism-related as MNH-related (DfE is the responsible Department). So it may be about the works that are supposed to be going on with the Wheel. Also sometimes constituents want the answers to daft questions - and it's election year.
  22. This is real facepalm stuff. We're in a situation that looks like it was caused by failure to test everyone co-isolating together. So what do they do? So someone could have caught Covid at Truth, developed a mild, non-symptomatic case, passed it on to others in their family, but then cleared it from their system by Day 13. And the others would be released into the community to unknowingly spread it, reassured that they were all clear. Lessons never seem to be learnt - even if they were only given last month.
  23. Oh I see that, it's just that we were told that there had been none so far from Truth and it would be an odd pattern to pick up none at Day 1 or 6/7 (where you'd expect the most) but seven at Day 13. But as usual the information from Government is scanty and not always accurate. I've not seen anything firm that suggests the new Kent strain has a longer incubation period, just some speculation among other possibilities. It does seem to produce a higher viral load and so be more infectious, but if anything I would see that as reducing the incubation time. Maybe we've got a new Manx s
  24. It still gives rise to other questions. Firstly, if they were infected by a returning traveller who went through the 14 days isolation and only then developed Covid, that is extremely unlikely. But we were told exactly the same thing about the 1886 cases. As Lady Bracknell remarked, twice looks like carelessness. Secondly if these are from Truth on the dates that have been specified (31 Dec and 2 Jan) then they are also right on the 14 day limit. So it's all very odd.
  25. Oh God no! Quayle would just use it to ramble on about the evils of Twitter in that pseudo-folksy way that he doesn't do as well as Gelling or even Brown.
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