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Everything posted by Newbie

  1. Newbie

    Manx Care

    It doesn't generally work like that. The decision to refer a patient is taken in conjunction with the patient after discussing the various aspects of it, no doubt including the likely waiting time. Not all people want surgery, and are prepared to accept some pain/limitation of function, and wait to see how things go. On the other hand some people want surgery at an earlier stage for a variety of personal and lifestyle reasons. There is no one 'standard patient' and they are all individuals. For those people that do feel they would like surgery for say a hip problem, you can understand the
  2. Newbie

    Manx Care

    Either of those could be the case, but as far as demand is concerned, a bigger concern seems to be that people have found it much harder to access routine healthcare during the pandemic, which you would have thought would result in fewer referrals. The number of referrals should be known, so it should be easy to determine whether demand has increased. As for capacity, I guess Wrighty would now whether that is likely to be reduced as a result of precautionary Covid measures that might need to be taken, but I can't really see why it should have a significant impact. Surely, it is mainly a matter
  3. Newbie

    Manx Care

    The MR report says that maximum waits are up to 5 years in some specialties. Before lockdown last year, the maximum waits were a little over 2 years in the worst specialties. It is difficult to see how waiting lists can rise by nearly 3 years in a little over 12 months. Even assuming no routine work at all had taken place since then (although it was restarted briefly last year), the wait should only have gone up by a little over 12 months. Something doesn't add up.
  4. What you said was And So maybe you can see where confusion might arise
  5. I was talking about India, not the Isle of Man, and I have not suggested that because things are clearly desperate in India we should be panicking here. But from a humane point of view, to see people pushing their relatives around on trollies for hours, begging for someone to try to help them is a pretty good representation of Covid Hell, and the headlines reflect that fact. If you don't agree, well each to their own, but i think that trying to suggest that the headlines are an over reaction, and trying to downplay the situation using dubious statistics, demonstrates a lack of empathy for the
  6. I am sure that the relatives of people dying on trolleys in the carpark will be comforted by that. Do you seriously believe that figure?
  7. There are people dying on trolleys and in the back of ambulances outside hospitals in Delhi because they haven't got beds. It is almost certainly worse in areas with less resources. The headlines seem absolutely appropriate given the situation
  8. I think that the CDC is an organisation that can be taken seriously, and they do mention the limitations of the study within the discussion. The original link was to a press release highlighting the findings of the study, rather than to the study itself which was published online on the same day by the CDC in their weekly Morbidity and Mortality report. I would agree that it isn't a real world study insofar as the majority of the participants were medical personnel, although arguably, their work could put them more at risk of contracting Covid, meaning that the results are more impressive
  9. Except that the person would have caught covid a week or so ago in order to be testing positive now. That would only be a week after vaccination, when the level of protection would still be very low. It takes time for immunity to develop after a vaccination - longer than a week.
  10. Largely I agree with you regarding the false negatives. I think the level of disease now is such that it isn't worth doing the tests. But the raw figures for false negatives and positives are a bit misleading. For argument sake, if the incidence in the community of Covid is say 1 per 10,000 (i.e a low level) and you test a million people you would expect to get 100 positives, but because of the false negatives you might only pick up 50 or 60 of them. You could argue that it is better to find the 50 or 60 than not find them, otherwise they will all be down the pub. Also as trmpton says (below)
  11. The false positives become more of a problem when the incidence of disease in the community has dropped to very low levels. Where the incidence of disease is less than 1 in 1,000 the chances are that a positive result from a Lateral Flow Test will be a false positive result. It is difficult to establish the exact numbers, but in London, where the incidence of Covid is currently very low, it has been estimated that only 25% of positive lateral flow tests are true positives (although it does depend a bit on the brand of test used, and who has taken the test). The positive results can be che
  12. It is exactly what Dr Ewart said about lateral flow tests, that they are of limited value when the level of disease in the community is very low (i.e. low probability of having the disease), but become more useful when there is a high level of disease in the community.
  13. Except that the organisation of the FoM starts in January/February
  14. The clue is in the statement. The vaccine works by getting the body's immune system to react and thereby develop an immunity to covid-19. If someone has a weakened immune system due to some other medical condition, their immune system may not react as well as would normally be expected, meaning that they wouldn't develop a full immunity. Under those circumstances, young people living in the same household may well feel that they would want to do all they could to help protect their family members. Transmission between family members is one of the commonest causes of covid spreading. If a healt
  15. Perhaps it was a bad choice of words by me. However, when a Minister has given the wrong information to the HOK, we would expect them to come back and set the record straight. If doing so gets instant calls for their resignation, you can see why they might sometimes be reticent.
  16. There are plenty of posts on here saying that the Government should hold their hands up when they make a mistake and that what we want is transparency. It is often said that people will understand that they are only human, and admitting to their mistakes will help build public trust. I have pointed out before that whatever people say, when they do admit to a mistake there are instant calls for their resignation. They really cannot win.
  17. That is what HQ said. He said that someone had had an anaphylactic reaction after vaccination but had been treated and recovered. There was also another person who died shortly after having the vaccine, but the investigations carried out showed that there was no link between the vaccine and the patient subsequently dying.
  18. That is what they have said. It is also what the delay was at the start. Sorting out the indemnity from the UK Government.
  19. As I understand it, indemnity is being provided by the UK Government, and we are following them in regard the dosing. Furthermore, if it was the AZ vaccine we are following the manufacturer's recommendation which is second dose between 4 and 12 weeks. If it was the first dose of either, then I don't see how they could argue that because the second dose wasn't going to be given until 12 weeks, liability was voided in any way. If the post about it being an anaphylactic reaction is correct, it is unlikely to be a second dose. It would be unusual to have no reaction at all to the f
  20. The report seems to suggest that they will vary the restrictions placed upon people travelling there from the UK depending on which part of the UK they have been to. They are hoping Aurigny will switch to flying to Bristol or Exeter rather than Southampton because the Southwest has less than 30 cases per 100,000 which is there cut off for travellers having to isolate. Southeast UK is above their cut off.
  21. Perhaps it is to keep the flies off his teeth.
  22. There is some evidence of an increased risk of stroke in patients with Covid-19 due to increased risk of blood clotting generally. The good news is that the increased risk may not be as much as was first thought. Article in the Lancet abut risk in young people here Article from the Cardiovascular Research Foundation here
  23. Like the UK did with Serco for T&T, or like they did with Capita for patient records? The private sector doesn't have a good record when managing NHS services
  24. Which is why, in my reply to Gladys, I pointed out that what she was saying about the advisability, or otherwise, of charging travellers for tests was a different argument. As it happens, I personally believe that all of the tests should be done for free, largely for the reason you mention, but that isn't the situation. To a certain extent, I agree with that, and it would seem that the market can bear £50 a test. Even so, the cost of private treatment does have some sort of basis in what it actually costs to provide rather than being totally arbitrary. For instance, if a private compan
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