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Everything posted by Josem

  1. Josem

    Tim's Time's Up

    I don't support the Government's sneaky plan to massively increase the population, but saying that we don't have space for homes is false. I don't know if you've ever been to the Isle of Man, but FYI we have a huge amount of undeveloped space: Figures from the NFU and the biosphere reveal that around 88% of the island is managed as various forms of undeveloped green land (including farms, forestry, etc). Separately, around 4% of the land of the Isle of Man is dedicated to housing. Saying we have few areas left to build homes is just not true. It is true, however, to say that our community currently puts higher priority on space for homes for cows than homes for humans. I agree with this bit. An economic strategy based upon building enough housing, building better infrastructure, improving our health system, and improving our education system would be a better strategy than the government's proposed plan to raid and gamble NI funds on risky ventures.
  2. Josem

    Tim's Time's Up

    The Isle of Man and Australia have basically diametrically opposed migration policies. It is very hard to migrate to Australia as an elderly migrant, and relatively easy if you are a young, qualified and willing to work. Here in the Isle of Man, there are essentially no migration restrictions on elderly, non-workers, moving from the UK or Ireland, but significant restrictions on most people who want to come here and work from UK and Ireland. If we're going to restrict people who come to IOM to work with a work permit, it is unlikely to be sustainable to continue to have no restrictions on people coming to IOM to not work from UK/Ireland. Obviously, the Isle of Man Government is always a step-behind, but one relatively easy opportunity to improve our rules in the right direction would be to welcome high performance people to the island. It costs us nothing, the people are already vetted, and would benefit the people of the IOM substantially to have such people migrating to here.
  3. Oh, I think I understand what you're asking. I have no reason to think that the detection/resolution rate for such crimes is meaningfully different to the detection/resolution rate for the same crimes but with different motives - if such data is stored somewhere, I don't think the IOM Police have published it. My understanding is that the number of hate-motivated assaults (or other crimes) is so small that it wouldn't be possible to do much statistical analysis/comparison anyway.
  4. Page 65 gives prosecutions for offenses against the person: https://www.iompolice.im/media/1403/all-charts-and-tables-2020-2021.pdf If people commit assaults, they should be prosecuted because it is already illegal to assault someone, I doubt that making it "super-illegal" is going to make a meaningful change to the detection rate. It is plausible to make the sentencing "stronger" (I don't know what the right adjective here, forgive me if this is not the right word), but again I doubt that will affect the number of prosecutions.
  5. Laws regulating speech are not a good way to combat Nazism. We know this because they didn't work: https://www.bjpa.org/content/upload/bjpa/4_an/4_Anti-Semitism_September-October_1940.pdf "Banned in Boston" was a famous example in the American context: the allure of a book/movie/art/idea being banned makes it more attractive to some people. It isn't clear what form the proposed hate crime laws will take in the Isle of Man. I am hopeful that they will target violence (and similar actions) rather than regulating speech which isn't connected with harassment/imminent violence/etc.
  6. Opposition to state control of religion is pretty fundamental to the separation of church and state. I strongly oppose the Government trying to control or outlaw Islam, I strongly oppose the Government trying to control or outlaw Judaism, and I strongly oppose the Government trying to control or outlaw Christianity. More politicians should have more humility about what the laws of the state can and should control.
  7. I'm saying that people conducting ordinary religious services should not be prosecuted for doing so. Because I believe in the separation of church and state, I think that the state should not regulate the content of religious services very much.
  8. There's extensive discussion on these issues across the Western world. The US has no legal recognition of hate speech, with speech being restricted for other reasons (eg, incitement to imminent violence, speech which is integral to crime such as fraud, obscenity, and so on). Here in the Isle of Man, the rules are already much more restrictive of your speech - the Public Order Act which I linked above already prohibits "abusive or insulting words...within the hearing or sight of a person likely to be caused harassment, annoyance, alarm or distress thereby." Further, the last Tynwald imposed legislation providing for further restrictions on protests (and other behaviour) in areas around abortion services/counselling. Also, none of this is legal advice.
  9. I think that there is likely a widespread consensus view in our community that if you are found guilty of physically assaulting someone because of their disability, or their race, or their religion, that you deserve a stronger sentence than most other such assaults. The motive of the crime affects the sentence. However, I suspect that most people in our community would not want to criminalise people reading from the Quran or the Bible or the Torah. I hope the proposed hate crime legislation will merely be some sort of update of the existing 1998 Public Order Act, which relate to creating an immediate fear or provocation of violence - rather than creating new offences relating to merely saying things that some perceive to be offensive.
  10. I think you'll find that this split applies to semi-final and final cup games, not league games. The NSCFL rules for cup games are published in section 21 here: https://www.nwcfl.com/league_admin/rules/202223/Cup Rules 2022-23.pdf - but note that Section 22 has a bunch of extra rules for FC IOM games. The ordinary league rules are published here, but I do not think they require splitting admissions collected at games - you can see if you can find anything here: https://www.nwcfl.com/league_admin/rules/202223/Cup Rules 2022-23.pdf
  11. 1) I find it disappointing that the Police have made these claims without (yet?) sharing the evidence to support them. 2) It is sad that our media outlets repeat such claims uncritically, especially where the actual numbers do not appear to be publicly available (yet?). 3) I doubt that this claim is true: the crime rate in a number Scottish local government areas (LGAs) appears to be (much!) lower than the crime rate in the Isle of Man, but it is not possible to compare the data because of (1). It is certainly possible the claims made by the IOM Police are true if the numbers are calculated in some way, but the headline figures currently show IOM having much higher crime rates than various Scottish LGAs. For example, it is plausible that the Scottish LGAs with lower crime rates have significantly more serious crimes, and the IOM Police have somehow adjusted for that, but it is not possible to verify either way. 4) Organisations which have a strong commitment to intellectual honesty and transparency will typically publish their data in spreadsheets. Organisations which have a dubious commitment to transparency publish their data in PDF files. Organisations which have a positively hostile commitment to transparency publish their data in JPG images.
  12. I think it is unlikely that any such list exists, but am interested in seeking what sort of documentation the Government might retain post-interview and/or post-employment. If anyone would be willing to be a guinea pig* in such an effort, please contact me privately, I'd be happy to help you request whatever data is stored about you, and get that sent to you. (*I'd do it myself, but I've never worked or interviewed to work for the IOM Government, and do not envisage doing so. The closest I've ever come was an interview for the War Memorials Committee.)
  13. I think two things could improve the quality of MHKs: 1) If they were more involved in their local community. Joining the local gardening club, or the football club, or other service/faith/interest/sporting groups would help us to build stronger institutions, and I believe that stronger institutions build better humans. Unfortunately, we live in a very atomised society where institutions of all sorts are breaking down, and therefore, people have reduced experience and reduced training in confronting challenging issues. The Tynwald Register of Interests reveals that there are many MHKs who are not a member of "any trade union, professional society, political grouping or party, or of the Freemasons or any body outside Tynwald." 2) Some MHKs would benefit from reading books. Listening to one the other day say out loud, "What is free speech anyway?" made me realise that there are some people who have very little intellectual curiosity for issues before they arrive on their plate.
  14. I disagreed deeply with Ashford's policy decisions at the time, and it is nice for all the Harry Hindsights on the internet to belatedly come around to my way of thinking. When - in February 2020 - I was saying that travellers returning to the Isle of Man should be isolating on return, the IOM Government did not. When - in March 2020 - I was saying the risk of the pandemic was big and serious, people laughed at me while the IOM Government said the risk to the IOM was "moderate to low". It is now apparent that while the IOM Government disagreed with me publicly at the time and played down the risk of the pandemic, behind the scenes, medical experts like Dr Ranson were echoing my concerns. Unfortunately, their concerns were silenced by the bureaucratic BS artists. I just wish that these fake experts had not been in positions of bureaucratic power, as we can only wonder how many more people would be alive today if they had taken heed of our concerns in January and February and March 2020. That substantive issue, where I disagreed deeply with Ashford at the time, is entirely separate from the decent way to handle that disagreement today. Some people - on this forum and elsewhere - have made various allegations of criminality. Such allegations of criminal behaviour are serious. They're serious to people who are victims of crime. They're serious to people who are wrongly accused of crime. That's why our civilisation has created a variety of institutions to properly investigate such allegations. Those institutions are called "the police" and "the court system". Those institutions do not include social media websites. Making such allegations in this public forum are morally wrong and practically wrong.
  15. It's reasonable to be harshly critical in public of people who put themselves forward for public office. You can criticise me for the things I say and do, because after all, I've been called worse things by better people. However, it is entirely unreasonable to make various allegations of criminality against private citizens in a public forum like this (or elsewhere on social media). If anyone has any evidence or allegations of such criminality, those allegations should be put forward to the relevant law enforcement agency for investigation.
  16. Yesterday, Manx Radio published Tim Crookall speaking about the horse tram debacle while Mr Crookall played coconut shells. I can't believe I just wrote those words, and yet, that's not all! There's four such episodes which have been published so far: https://taxpayersalliance.im/your-taxes-at-work-manx-radio-produces-instruments-of-democracy/
  17. FC IOM has a team of volunteer stewards, they are not paid. Crowd behaviour has generally been very good: an average of far less than one person per match has been ejected throughout the season for misbehaviour. There's a wonderful team of dozens of volunteers. If anyone wants to volunteer (for next season, now, obviously) you can register online here: https://bit.ly/fciomstewards At each game, FC IOM works with Beach Buddies IOM to deploy many (I'm not sure of the exact number, but think it is 10-20?) additional bins in and around the NSC Bowl precinct to dispose of such rubbish.
  18. This is likely a good idea* but I don't think there are any top-tier gambling companies which serve Isle of Man punters which are actually regulated in the Isle of Man. If you want such a change to be implemented in regulations/laws, you would need to contact the UK, Maltese or other regulator to let them know of your views. *I suspect that we could improve it further by having better targeting of such limits, rather than imposing them on everyone, and by doing things to enforce breaks and reduce the velocity of gambling to try to break addictive cycles.
  19. E-gaming is (basically) gambling - and it appears that one of the primary monetisation channels of e-sports is through gambling on the outcomes. If you say you want e-gaming (or e-sports) then you are accidentally saying that you want gambling. "eGaming" as commonly used on the Isle of Man is really just a euphemism for gambling. Hosting data centres is a relatively trivially small part of the gambling industry. It's also worth noting that operators like PokerStars are no longer regulated by the Isle of Man Gambling Commission, with them opting instead for low-end regulatory jurisdictions such as Malta.
  20. The number of staff in the cabinet office increased by 30% during the Quayle Administration, so I imagine it can't be hard. A big part of the increase in staff numbers is likely connected to the misguided effort to separate Public Health Isle of Man from the Department of Health and Social Care, (and further, the consequential hiring of various staff on pandemic-related measures, such as the 111 phone line and similar).
  21. I'm sure that each of your statements here are literally true, but combined, people might be misled into thinking inaccurately. Article 2 of the the refugee convention requires that refugees comply with the laws and regulations of the countries that they are in. If, as you say*, "the EU has a regulation that refugee processing take place in the first EU nation the refugee arrives in," then any refugee is required to comply with that regulation. Putting that all together, if you are correct in your interpretation of EU law, then unless a refugee has somehow traversed to the UK without transiting through the EU, they are obligated to apply as a refugee in the EU. *I defer to your expertise here, I'm not familiar with EU laws here
  22. Yes, this is all very reasonable, especially if in #1 you include the unfunded liabilities of both Government employee, and non-employee (State) pensions On #3, true that loans require repayment, but they also tend to create an asset at the same time. I believe that fractional banking is a huge wealth creator of the last 400 years, because it has created money supply (and while I'm not familiar with the Manx experience specifically, I believe that in other jurisdictions, it is corporate lending which is the prime driver of such creation, rather than residential mortgages) On 6, I suspect that there's ultimately a correlation between Government policies and end prices. I believe that inflation is fundamentally an interaction of the total money supply chasing the total goods and services supply - and that when the Manx Government spends more than it takes, we inflate the amount of money chasing goods/services, leading to our current inflation issue.
  23. If the list did, in fact, contain every trading business on the island, then that would represent a terrible waste of taxpayer money and be outrageous that taxpayers paid millions of dollars to businesses which improved their financial performance during the pandemic. For example, there was a big global surge in online gambling through the pandemic, so it is difficult to imagine why an online gambling company should receive taxpayer subsidies. That's why many (all?) of the schemes were limited in their reach: if your first sentence was true, it would undermine your third sentence. It is bizarre that some people care so little about the accountability of public finances that they believe such spending should be done in secret.
  24. We are not "awash with cash" and I have never said or thought that. Rather, I have said that the Isle of Man Government has significant reserves. I have said this because I know it to be true. This is confirmed by the budget papers (See page 17 here: https://www.gov.im/media/1375698/pink-book-2022.pdf under Table 6 titled "Reserve Valuations" which ascribes a value to the reserves) and Moody's independent review. Those budget papers value the reserves at a little over £2 billion. With Isle of Man GDP at around £5.5 billion, the Isle of Man Government reserves are worth just over 36% of GDP. This is in the same range as what Moody's reported too. A simple way to compare this is to compare the IOM Government reserves of other nations: Isle of Man: Reserves are worth Positive 36% of GDP United Kingdom: Reserves are worth Negative 143% of GDP United States: Negative 161% Australia: Negative 93% Ireland: Negative 72% In the case of UK/US/Australia/Ireland, these nations do not have net reserves, but because their figures are massively negative, they have net debt. Obviously, government debt is the opposite of government reserves. Source: OECD here: https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm I am somewhat confused why this is a point of discussion/contention. This is, I thought, a pretty uncontroversial fact, and I do not comprehend why there's any meaningful doubt here. Because the Isle of Man Government has meaningful reserves, it is able to spend more money than it takes in each year. This is exactly what is happening, and a contributing factor to the high inflation we are all suffering under. Talk that the Isle of Man Government can't print money both misunderstands who does create money (banks!) and the fact that spending money from the reserves is functionally similar to creating money anyway in this context.
  25. That would be good if it was the case! I like your thinking, but the politicians are plundering it already. It would be nice if they didn't dip into the NI reserves to fund their profligacy, but our politicians already have their snouts in there with their two front trotters as well.
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