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madmanxpilot last won the day on January 29

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About madmanxpilot

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  1. The prevalence of community cases will dictate the length of this lockdown. That's what a lot of people want to know about. As soon as we get near zero in that count, we'll know that the end is in sight.
  2. No doubt if they are granted appointment times they'd be late and then all turn up at once.
  3. Agree - we only really important things we need to know are how many daily new cases and of them how many are of unexplained lineage.
  4. Guernsey peaked at 56 daily cases 8 days after they locked down. We hit 71 4 days later, we will surely see this rise. Guernsey locked down as soon they detected unaccountable cases. We gave the virus a few days extra to spread in the community. When this outbreak is brought to an end I would expect our numbers to be significantly higher than Guernsey's with the duration of lockdown having been fairly similar. It has taken Guernsey 5 weeks to see consistent days with no cases, they are only now gradually lifting restrictions.
  5. If we follow the same trajectory as Guernsey we'll hit our peak about Thursday next week with about 200 new daily cases. A big variable is that Guernsey locked down on the very day they first detected a number (4) of unexplained cases. We gave the virus a bit of a head start. The picture shows he Guernsey outbreak daily cases vs time.
  6. Additional scientific questions about the vaccines remain that should be answered to improve vaccine efficacy, including questions regarding the optimisation of vaccination regimens, booster doses, the correlates of protection, vaccine effectiveness, safety and enhanced surveillance. The timely and coordinated execution of these post-efficacy tasks will bring the pandemic to an effective, and efficient, close. Hence the continuance trials.
  7. Strange, the JCVI group 8 is for people 55 and over. Not sure why the age of 56 is mentioned.
  8. I hope you are right - but remember it takes a few weeks for a reasonable amount of protection to be generated by a single dose. It may be that a phased and limited unlocking happens at an earlier juncture, but my money is still on at least 8 weeks until we can go to the Woody for a pint.
  9. I've just had a quick peek at Guernsey's latest outbreak data. They went into lockdown on 23rd Jan, had their peak number of daily cases (56) on Feb 1st, this fell over the next couple of weeks and their first day of zero cases was feb 17th. From feb 18th to date there have been ten more cases, but there have been none for the last six days. So, it looks like they've taken five weeks to purge the virus. If we follow a similar trend and then, like last time, take another three weeks until we break cover, this 'circuit break' is going to be an eight week job. Time to put another home
  10. The announcement says that kids of key workers can be looked after by other family members. That's still mixing though, but perhaps not as bad as if they were at school.
  11. Probably a batch of test results come in late on in the evening and they make decisions based on that data.
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