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Everything posted by madmanxpilot

  1. Maybe because it closed for applications on 16th?
  2. It was stated, not implied. We should hear something today.
  3. Perhaps - but it wouldn't have just been Covid patients who died. Many (young and old) requiring critical care for other conditions would have had that care compromised too.
  4. The UK infection rate will likely rocket in the coming weeks as people start to mix. But does it matter as much now as it would have before vaccines were in the arms of the majority of the population? No. Thanks to the vaccines we are now far more able to deal with Covid. The IOMG's fixation on a 30/100K 14 case notification rate does not account for that, and will see us stay at level 2A for a very long time, certainly into next year.
  5. But it is. Borders will only relax when they think the risk of Covid being imported is acceptable. By acceptable, they mean not likely to overload the health service. They have set that trigger points at 30/100K.
  6. We can all agree that covid has been held in abeyance social restrictions. The eight causes of mortality ranked higher than covid will have (to a large extent) have been unaffected by such mitigations. If Covid had been left to run it's course, I suspect it would have been at the top of the league table. Treatment for other conditions would have been much restricted too. The vaccines have put us in a different place now though.
  7. But - and it's a massive but - the ratio of cases to hospitalisations has reduced massively since the vaccines have started having an effect. So, reliance simply on case rates to assess likely demand on the health service is fundamentaly flawed. There can be no question about that.
  8. As far as I can see, yes Just as people don't wear parachutes whenever they get on a plane these days, we really need to acknowledge the impact the vaccines are having on the risk of exposure to covid and change our protocols accordingly.
  9. Unless they accept that case rates are becoming less of an important indicator on potential health service demand (which is what the whole thing is about), and introduce some factoring for the administration and proven effect of the vaccines, you are 100% correct. Once the vulnerable groups are fully vaccinated, and as the vaccines are shown to be 90% effective against illness caused by infection, the 30/100K case rate target should perhaps become 270/100K. As we make our way to that point, the target rate can increase slowly. It beggars belief that this is not happening.
  10. It's worth remembering that everything that was announced today is provisional. A final decision on whether or not to proceed will be made on Thursday.
  11. Agreed - but if they continue to just use case rates, it will be a very long delay indeed.
  12. Not being able to pre book a test prior to arrival is ridiculous. It's just another example of the painting by numbers style of approach to so many things on this Island. We should really have the ability to be tested immediately on arrival in any event.
  13. What was announced today was not a move to Level 2. The main point of Level 2 was to allow non resident mitigated travel. (See the IOMG exit strategy document). The stated reason for this not happening is the UK 14 day case rate being above 30/100K. A secondary reason was concern over the impact of the 'India' Variant. The point about case rates had been discussed on this thread today. The reduction of isolation requirements for residents and groups already permitted announced today is welcome, but it is not the major change associated with Level 2.
  14. We know that the link between cases and morbidity is being significantly stretched by the vaccines. There appears to be no recognition of this fact in the strategy. If they stick to the document's trigger points regarding case rates, we will not be getting anywhere near level 2 for a very long time.
  15. Yes - that should go without saying. However, they need to move away from the sole reliance on case rates as a driver for changes to the exit strategy. It's not just hospitality, but for airlines and many businesses too.
  16. Very disappointing to hear that the exit strategy is still only considering UK 14 day case rates rather than how those cases translate into healthcare demand. These rates are only going to go up as the UK unlocks, so unless there is a change in policy we will indeed become akin to Brigadoon. If the vaccines do their stuff what do case rates matter?. If they'd just put it down to the 'India' Variant, I could understand.
  17. Wales has decided to hold off relaxing some of it's Covid restrictions because of concerns surrounding the Indian Variant. Would we be surprised if IOMG also cite it as a reason to delay moving to level 2 of the border framework?
  18. If the HR person had read them then the failure to comply was deliberate rather than negligent.
  19. It's shambolic. IOMG issued legal instructions, IOMSPCo didn't bother reading them because they thought they know what they contained, IOMG didn't ensure that they are complied with. Additionally, there were several statements made by Mr Woodward today stating that IOMG knew the direction notices weren't being complied with and that they did nothing about it. It's really indefensible if true. No matter how difficult it was to address, it should have been. Because it wasn't, people died. Ignorance is no excuse in the eyes of the law. Those that were jailed for breaches found that out the hard way. They have every right to be enraged by this apparent corporate duplicity.
  20. Exactly. I think that Mr Woodward's admission that it was solely assumption rather than confirmation of understanding and compliance is the root of the issue. That really is inexcusable. Mark Woodward: "I must make it clear that I didn’t sit and look at these legal documents, I was sure that we knew what we were doing and the gov knew what we were doing. When I delved into the details, I was astonished".
  21. In the preamble to the revised exit strategy on the IOMG website, they say they are also considering the 14 day death rate. Much as we may sometimes suggest on these forums, they cannot be so thick as to solely to consider cases. Boris himself stated 'the link between cases and hospitalisation and deaths has been broken by the vaccines'.
  22. I would hope and expect that case rates are not the only metric they are considering now. They have said they are considering the 14 day death rate too - that will become far more important than cases as the numbers vaccinated grows.
  23. That's the seven day rate - the IOM uses the fourteen day rate. From the IOMG website: Isle of Man Government has released a revised version of the Exit Framework, which sets out key indicators (see page five) for the Island's border, testing and isolation response over the mid term future, based on the UK 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, as defined weekly by the ECDC. Weekly ECDC data is available here. The WHO Coronavirus Dashboard contains useful global information and data regarding COVID-19. The '14 day case notification rate' is calculated by the ECDC by adding together newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population for a specific area in the past 14 days, and dividing this number by the total population that live in that area, this is then multiplied by 100,000 in order to allow consistent comparison of different areas.
  24. Yes - and he was inspired to write Treasure Island after paying a visit to see them when after they'd been completed. True story apparently.
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