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Freya Q

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Everything posted by Freya Q

  1. Not that I'm a massive fan of on-line polls: I'm just not that convinced that professional polls or market research is much better; no doubt its better designed and fair in one sense, but philosophically speaking I don't think they're really that much more reliable. The man has been dealt with already by the appropiate person or authority. There are much more important matters to deal with. If you dont like Juan Watterson you may do worst than look at his political ideas, which some may find nasty right wing , rather than some imagined slight on your emancipation. But the point is he hasn't been dealt with at all. No police involvement and no political sanction From our political teflon elite Hey im so glad you said that. He has beeen dealt with by Allan Bell. Obviously Mr Bell didnt think it worthy of any formal punishment. You may or may not agree with Mr Bell. However he has been dealt with. (By Mr Bell) I am not surprised several people on the forum dont understand this but I am exceptionally surprised Vinnie and Chinahand, who both promote themselves as the final arbiters on all things manx / political/ philosophical/ mathematical/ social/ etc / you name it ... should have started or engaged themselves with this nonsense. For God sake guys ... please read what you are posting. Its so pompous !!! .. honestly If you dont belive me ask a friend to read it .. numerous people are saying this. For me .. I probably will leave you all to your right wing nonsense. Carry on regardless guys ... Ive been told Im stupid today, on here, because Ive dared to post contrary to perceived (right wing) wisdom Ive also been the subjject of unpleasant innuendo for a regular poster .. particularly unpleasant to me bacause I have a health condition which would actually make that innuendo very serious in terms of consequences ..even If I wanted which I dont. Bye folks.
  2. To the off duty policeman who went out of his way to help my Nan yesterday I just wanted to say thankyou. I know you didnt want me to post on this forum but ..well here it is. My Nan is 90 and was getting hassle from local lads. Her hero not only sorted them out but he came back, got Nan's shopping and carried it to her house and gave her a contact number for his wife. Thanks ever so much Sorry if Ive embarressed you
  3. Aye, but that's a pretty big assumption to make, especially if you want to be strict about issues of probability. Plenty of people have an opinion, but simply don't like being hassled on their doorstep, over the phone, or in the middle of the street on their way home or to work. You also have those who don't see any reason to take part in polls; in election polls, for instance, you will get people who feel no reason to spend time answering some pollsters questions since they're already going to be expressing themselves via their vote. Then there's those who may have an opinion but distrust pollsters, and so on and so forth. In short, there are enough reasons for someone not to take a poll that you can't rely on a simple assumption that holding an opinion equates to a willingness or overbearing urge to answer a stranger's questions about it. It's actually a pretty elementary flaw of logic those companies are indulging in: whilst it might be reasonable to assume that taking part in a poll implies that person has an opinion on the matter being discussed, the implication in the other direction isn't necessarily true. Really, the absolute most you can say about your sample is that it consists of a subset of those with an opinion and an inclination to share that opinion with a pollster. There is the claim that those who do engage with polls are more likely to vote or whatever, but that's all it is: a claim, and one that's near impossible to verify since the only way to tell would be via more polling which suffers from the same defects. Of those who turn you down, you can't say very much at all, which isn't so much different to your average on-line poll. Although, to be sure, the latter can be criticised with regards to poll design and the presence of leading questions (and here I agree with Declan in that the first question on this poll could be deemed leading). Fair point about the BPC, but do they really enforce rigour in terms of theory and foundations? Yes, they enforce a mutually agreed concept of fairness and disclosure, but that's a slightly different matter to the more philosophical and mathematical arguments about sampling, what can be said about how representative a poll is, and what can be extrapolated, which is really what is being discussed when you talk about 'voodoo' polls and self selection. It's only my personal impression, and thus based only on limited experience (so correct me if I'm wrong), but it's always seemed to me that a lot who end up in the polling/market research business do so from a background in the social sciences (for instance, the president of the BPC). If true, the problem with that is the level of knowledge regarding statistics and especially probability theory amounts to only a pretty basic working knowledge. Even in academic articles systematic flaws are far more common than they really should be, and that's with the buffer of supposedly expert peer review, and then there are far deeper problems, such as the entire validity of hypothesis testing which needs to be taken into account. Not that I'm a massive fan of on-line polls: I'm just not that convinced that professional polls or market research is much better; no doubt its better designed and fair in one sense, but philosophically speaking I don't think they're really that much more reliable. Vinnie: I dont have any desire to contradict you but this is just plain wrong. I occupy a very lowly post as a research assistant but I can tell you that generally, in the areas you have named, the understanding of relevant statistics is execeptionally good. Dont make the mathematicians mistake of thinking we are are looking for mathematical proofs. We arent. The real trick in the Social Sciences is making sense of the results / statistics. That takes training and experience. As for silly polls on the Manx Forums .. especially those made by people who ... lets be brutal .. give the impression of having a very high opinion of themselves ... well they are, with the best will in the world, worthless .. albeit sometimes entertaining. Unfortunately this particular poll isnt entertaining. ChinaHand: You need to drop this and stop being a bully. The man has been dealt with already by the appropiate person or authority. There are much more important matters to deal with. If you dont like Juan Watterson you may do worst than look at his political ideas, which some may find nasty right wing , rather than some imagined slight on your emancipation. For both of you, ChinaHand and Vinnie ... understand that parliamentary systems promise a lot but deliver very little (Lenin) It follows that all the ridiculous philosophising on a local news forum is even more silly than ...... (you fill the gap in)
  4. The difference between us is I actually check statistics and data prior to posting whereas you ............... (well I do wonder) Far from being stupid I seem to be one of the few people posting this forum to realise we are reaping what we have sown with our low tax policies. Wake up, smell the coffee, we do not raise sufficient tax revenues. If you cant bring yourself to accept what I say ..then check out any country with a comparable public sector and compare their tax rates with ours. For avoidance of doubt there are numerous reference jurisdictions you can use so please dont call on the "Irtish Sea Cuba " argument. It doesnt hold water. We dont raise enough tax. How stupid of me to say so on the radical right forum Manx Forum.
  5. OK it is presently only proposed so it may not be 7 years without a pay rise. However if it is in my view it is totally wrong as it is just MHK's bottling from having to make decisions. A blanket freeze is much easier than to look at sector by sector and to amend each accordingly. If after that a freeze is required then so be it but first bloated salaries and terms and conditions in certain sectors must be tackled Picking on Public Sector Employees is not the answer to the Island's difficulties. Its little different to whats currently happening with the unemployed where the radical right and their fellow travellers blame those in the dole queue as being workshy. It may well be that we have to make some very hard decisions in the coming months and years but lets not get into finger pointing and blaming those who are actually victims.
  6. The more likely result would be further problems for the housing market. People need to get a hold of reality on the Island. The reason we struggle to pay for our Public Services is because we dont raise enough tax. This is the entirely predictable result of basing the economy on a low tax regime. There are avenues open to us to raise tax revenues and we should consider them. (Hint: Look at what action OECD recommends and what figures in our GDP calculation go untaxed. )
  7. This is getting out of hand in my opinion. For goodness sake its worst than putting the poor man in the old Village Stocks. It was for Mr Bell to deal with and he has done that already. Let it drop guys.... in the name of common decency
  8. Child Benefit is an insured benefit. Everyone pays everyone benefits. It would appear to me that some of our politicians dont understand the notion of N.I. Can we now expect to see the rest of the National Insurance scheme dismantled?
  9. I thought it may be easier to post an ILO definition and here it is. You can see that carers are considered not economically active for the purpose of statistics. " According to the definition recommended by ILO, an individual should be considered economically active when he/she has worked at least one hour during the reference week. The only "domestic" activities that should not be considered "economic" and therefore identify a home maker are the following: - maintaining of dwellings (cleaning and repair); - preparing meals, washing clothes, shopping for the household; - caring for children and other family members."
  10. add on to wheels question - Can they claim any other benefits as well? No, the full time carer as defined here by wheels, is not counted as economically active. The criteria, as I posted earlier, is either in work or actively seeking work. You have already said they "had to give up their job" As to claiming other benefits (manxy) thats quite a different thing to the published statistics. However, anyone who satisfies the basic tests of citizenship (usually a length of residence test in the IOM) is eligible to claim one or more of the benefits available. Provided that person satisfies all the criteria for a particular benefit then she will be successful in her claim.
  11. OMG !! Well at least you werent sat at your computer wearing a dirty mac To be fair to you I did think the subject was unusual for you. Edit: I must see if I can find an old uni essay on "The Double Standard" & "A Womans Work is Never Done" I kept most of my hard work (!) but some of it was interesting.
  12. France Italy, Spain and the Irish Republic are ment to have there credit rateing downgraded tonight. And silver gos up 30% in that time over what might happin. thats some gain and greek bonds up to 400% You were right. The French rating has been downgraded. http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120113-711174.html
  13. Most people get the opportunity to bend their MHK's ear in places like the Post Office or a local cafe or pub. Possibly that may mean there isnt a desperate requirement for a mechanism, such as e-petitions- to bring issues to the attention of politicos. Does that make sense ?
  14. Any thoughts ? How about what is it you typed into a search engine to find that ? Lets face it, it isnt easy to come across accidentally.
  15. Right the numbers don't add up,before the Census,the figures were around 800,after the Census the figure was quoted at 1,400,now we have 979,gone up by 4?. We alll know about massageing the figures to make it look good,but just what are the true figures on the Island,and how many work permits have been issued,and to what jobs?,because I always thought that,if a Manx person could do the job,there was no need to issue a work permit,or is this another figure massage. Believe me the figures havent been "massaged". The people working at Economic Affairs comply to the highest possible ethical standards. The trick is not to look at one set of figures in isolation. That doesnt mean you or others with knowledge of a particular situation such as the Building Trade, for example, are wrong. It just means you have to look at a broader set of statistics to make sense of what is happening.
  16. The usual, almost universal , definition is that used by OECD. http://stats.oecd.or...tail.asp?ID=730 In broad terms you could say its those in employment plus those actively seeking work. It can vary over time as a result of welfare policies, for example, enticing people, women in particular, away from being economically active. Its not a perfect measure but its a standard. Some of the organisations we have supplied data and information to have frequently compalined about statistics being misleading but generally these complaints have been unfounded. Where the figures seem unexpectedly low its usually because of some other social factor enticing people away from economic activity.
  17. Maybe this book has some of the answers http://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/resource/the-spirit-level We could all benefit if there was less inequality.
  18. Can I just say what a lovely post you have made here. I had thought you were just a tough person but now you have changed my mind. I would also agree with everything you have said in this post and I wouldnt change my fella for anyone. So glad I got married
  19. has the manufacturer not gone er 'bust' Didnt know that. Would their insurance cover that type of thing ? Either way I do think the clinics should pay.
  20. Not quite the exact words but the sentiment seems similar. How do they get away with it ? I dont know. http://www.idating4you.com/white-dating/
  21. I used to think Id like boob enhancement when I was about 14 or 15. Glad I grew out of the idea as several people I know have had one or more problems after the surgery. Possibly the best way out of this one is for the clinic who performed the procedure to fund removal from worried women and then to recover their costs by suing the manufacturer.
  22. Why on earth would Trades Unions choose to make comment on prison and associated conditions such as punitive or voluntary labour?
  23. Do you have some evidence to support that ? It really does seem to be unlikely.
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