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Everything posted by AcousticallyChallenged

  1. It's not quite as straightforward as that. The island farms off defense to the UK, so I imagine it's all handled by the friendly folks in security services, probably under similar pretenses to RIPA, which is the UK telecoms intercept law. I imagine, that given everyone knows everyone's business over here, crime syndicates are far harder to run for long because you'll just get dobbed in. Look at the bloke who escaped on a fishing boat, he was hardly genius by the sounds of things. I've rocked up to the boat dozens of times looking scruffy and liable to be searched with a van or car packed
  2. Today's press conference felt like they've really started losing whatever charm they had. It's becoming more and more clear they don't have a plan, and I swear Howie is looking more smarmy. He looked so miffed when Moulton asked him about him coughing and spluttering the other day and his default face seems to be moving closer to that. It's clear they don't have any plan bar wait for it to be fixed everywhere else, and they seem to be treating testing as a binary thing, you either test on day 0 or don't test at all. Ashford isn't looking much better, both quite rambly and skirting questio
  3. Well, herd immunity threshold is 60ish percent for a virus for uncontrolled spread isn't it? Surely the vaccine would accelerate that significantly.
  4. You know that these vaccines are sat on shelves and in warehouses at the moment, right? The trials are progressing at a rate of knots. The Oxford one was already part approved which helped it get along so quickly. It's a chimp virus with the COVID spike protein added. They'd already tested that approach for other virus spikes within that, helping move things along safety trials etc.
  5. My point is though, it's not just Joyce. If you compare population demographics here with UK mortality rates, the bad news is you'd actually have about the same number of deaths here in the under 65s as you would in the over 85s. I did the maths a week or so ago in another thread, based on the 2016 census data. 18-64 deaths: 229.1 per 100k, so 109 deaths 65-84 deaths: 2115 per 100k, so 315 deaths 85+ deaths: 4989 per 100k, so 113 deaths
  6. The problem is, it's not just homes that are the issue. What about all the sheltered accommodation? What about 95 year old Joyce who lives on her own and is fiercely independent? What about the younger folks that COVID would polish off, that generally don't need carers but live with their partner who works public facing?
  7. How do you look after the vulnerable though? What do you do with their carers? What do you do with the families of those carers who could quite easily infect them? What about the staff in hospitals, nursing homes etc.?
  8. Realistically, we need to be testing at the borders, not least, so that when we do get community spread, we can identify more quickly where it's coming from. Regardless of the long-term plan, we need to make it through winter, and for a lot of hard-hit businesses, staying open is key to that. No covid is a key step to that for them. We may not have the perfect solution, but we know that in the short-term it could be far worse. Every day in the UK, it's estimated that 100k more people are infected, that's more than an island's worth. Evidence suggests R drops seasonally, as well as w
  9. It does sometimes feel like we're stuck in a Simon Pegg film set in Gloucestershire where it's all about the greater good. The greater good. The real challenge though is how on earth you move away from it, when rocking the boat just gets you tipped off, and everyone else is comfy enough to plod along. I think the Island in a lot of areas is the sort of place you can get by, and not just in politics, by not being so awful you're dangerous.
  10. Well, given that we're not any way close to India or South Africa, in climate, demographics or attitudes, let's first look there. There's a lot of suggestion now that COVID's R-value is seasonal, and that actually, winter here is seeming to be a lovely catalyst for it, even with social distancing and masks. Especially with it being aerosolised. Ventilation is looking like one of the big factors in indoor spread. Indian metropolises tend to have a lot of ventilation because it gets chuffing hot, and poorer houses don't exactly get structural integrity as a priority. Sweden on the other han
  11. There were key workers coming over all through the lockdown too, they effectively have to exist entirely isolated from the rest of the island, which is how they skirt quarantine. The only visitors we get that are family etc. are coming over for compassionate reasons. I don't think Tynwald has an answer beyond the head in the sand approach of keeping everything shut and everyone in isolation. If we've got minimal cases at the expense of everything from data to families, the approach simply must be working. There can't be any way of doing things differently and sensibly, surely. H
  12. So, plenty of viruses are about, and most are tiny, that's how viruses tend to be. They're viruses, so whilst we've got the obvious out of the way, of course a little bit of wriggly RNA isn't going to care about much. Hell, crude oil doesn't care about much, respect borders or care what Johnson says. It just gets refined and gets exploded in engines, so I'm not quite sure what your point is there. Note how quite a few places are doing pretty well. The ones that aren't doing well tend to also be full of the current plague. CV unlike a lot of pathogens will spread most before you're symptom
  13. Have we got any evidence that that works? You need restrictions to keep the growth on track. The whole idea is that as you vary restrictions, the R-value, buzzword of the year varies dramatically. The problem being that you have to nip things in the bud before they get bad, which didn't happen and is why we ended up in lockdown the first time round in the UK. The Island went into a shorter sharper one earlier and we're in a pretty good position. The problem with exponential growth, which you'd get in our current mask/social distancing free bubble, is that it ticks over slowly, then suddenly th
  14. Well, given the ossification of absolutely any governmental policy here, what other options do people have? "I'm alright Jack" means we move at the pace of continental drift at the best of times. Maybe a kick up the rear is what Tynwald needs.
  15. Well, we've done pretty well so far, as have Taiwan, New Zealand, Victoria in Australia are back to no new cases, South Korea have managed pretty well too... Allinson does. He's been asking all students to get in touch and dropping a lot of hints about 'managing the isolation burden on families for returning students' with hints at 'alternative accommodation'. Student grants folks paid for the repatriation of some manx students at the mount murray.
  16. Surely that's somewhat expected though? Our bodies only pump out anti-bodies when they're needed, with T-cells being responsible for longer term immunity. They detect a known threat and your body already has the blueprints for churning out antibodies.
  17. You have to remember how averse they are to testing people though. We have the capacity for 800 tests a day I think Howie said. Think how many people more could be tested on arrival. Their motivation they've claimed is that people are less likely to be sensible if they've had a negative result, despite the potential to then become a shedding virus pot. Far safer for optics to keep the closer the boarders brigade to have fewer tests and fewer chances to get positive figures.
  18. If you look at the mortality rates and population demographics of the island, we'd get as many deaths in the 18-65 range as we would for over 65s. Based on current hospitalisations in the UK, if everyone had it at once, you'd need about 150 beds (I previously did the maths in an earlier post on both fronts). I think a lockdown would be fatal for a lot of hospitality that's counting on a busy christmas, so if we can stay away from needing social distancing, they'll do massively better.
  19. Given how limited the number of cases they've found in Guernsey is, there's a reasonable assumption that it wasn't around for long. Look at Jersey, they've done lots of testing with comparatively low numbers of cases. A big part of the limited spread here probably comes from the fact that you wouldn't live it down for a long time if you caused a spread by breaking the rules.
  20. If it was here, there'd be at least one sewing group of little old stitchers that had succumbed. Or an outbreak at a church where the vulnerable mix and have a good sing-song. Actually, the cause of one of SK's big outbreaks. The odds of someone coming over with COVID are still reasonably slim, such that someone coming over, breaking the rules, and passing it on add to a small probability of community transmission getting off the ground. Current prevalence in England is roughly 1 in 130 according to the ONS. That includes random swabbing so gives a better idea of the state of things.
  21. Well, the thing is, scientific advice and thorough testing may have kept the 7 day testing, but Howie likes the political image of his 'foh-teen day gold standard'. Positive cases are bad for votes in his eyes, even if they're isolated. That's the crux of RG's issues with the current approach. We can't know what we don't look for. The wellbeing of the island at present seems to be hinged on shutting the doors and burying head in the sand til the big bad virus goes away.
  22. Hasn't twitter itself become quite the political platform with people like POTUS using it to declare policy of the day? RG is just happy to tell anyone that listens that actually, scientific advice isn't the only guiding hand in the current situation. She doesn't have to worry about being sacked, so she's actually able to give a bit of insight.
  23. Well, their efficacy on the island is currently a moot point, we don't have any COVID in the community so the odds of you catching it with or without a mask are fairly slim. I agree with you that we don't need them at present. Equally, I can see why with an outbreak starting to spread there would be some form of mandate or suggestion to wear them. I think some of the older folks are understandably, if not excessively concerned about what they could pick up out and about. But equally, some of them are liable to be finished off by a bout of flu, so you can understand it.
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