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Phillip Dearden

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About Phillip Dearden

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  1. Sorry, I did not meant to suggest VAT was going to re-vitalise our economy. I was querying whether extra activity here might influence the VAT sharing agreement so that the IOM received a greater share. I say "query" because I do not know how this calculation works.
  2. There is so much here to ponder. If every £1 I spend creates £1.80 of value to the economy, the same must be true of the recipient of my £1.80. He/they will spend their money and create 3.24 of value to the economy. After 30 days/cycles/transactions , my £1 will be creating £45m of value for the economy on each lap...and still growing. The Keynesian multiplier was about a Government spending money it had either created or borrowed to stimulate an economy from a temporary slump. It was not a way of creating economic activity. For the IOM, it is even less relevant as the Government cannot create money and any it borrows will need repaying. If they tax to spend, then the money taken out of the economy will also have a negative multiplier effect and so the effect will be neutral . It might work if the government could tax people who spend abroad and then the government spends that money with people who will spend it locally - but how feasible is that? I don't really see that selling either foreign cars or Mars bars to each other is productive [1] for the Island. You might say that one party makes a profit by selling these goods at a higher price than he bought them for but this is a cost for the purchaser so is the Island better off? Perhaps VAT? Really for an economy to work you need wealth creation and at the moment, for the IOM, that is the export of financial services and some manufacturing. A government wishing to stimulate the economy needs to expand those industries or supplement them with something new. Something new would be better as the old industries are mature and past their peak and some are not liked in far-off places but finding new productive and appropriate wealth-creating industries is hard. [1] Productive ina GDP/wealth-creation sense, I agree that these internal services are essential for our well-being and to keep the economy supplied.
  3. I wonder if that is completely correct? I am not arguing that we should throw the borders open immediately but I am querying whether most of our business is done locally. There is, obviously a local economy and it is very important. However, I suggest that most wealth creation on the Island is via the sale of Financial Services products to non-residents ie we export financial services. I suggest, that if this did not happen the internal economy would be much smaller. you cannot base an economy on selling foreign made goods to each other - somewhere, wealth needs to be created. If there were any value in this suggestion, then the timing of opening up borders would be quite important to the economy. I accept that much work is done on-line but I do not think important relationships can be created or cultivated in this way. Online comms will be useful for keeping things going but eventually travel will be required or the economy will reduce in scale.
  4. It is still like that - the fact you get your allowances and deductions when you submit a return means you are not taxed at 20% on every penny you earn. As it is possible to get an exemption certificate, if you are up to date with returns and payments, even the 20% up-front payment is a choice.
  5. Some people pay 20% on some of what they earn but how do you get to 20% on every penny - no allowances and no deductions?
  6. There have been recent payrises - which in the main have not quite equalled inflation. In connection with another matter I had to review Health Service pay-levels for the ten years from 2008 ie the austerity period. The result is complex as there are many bands and spines and you can compare against CPI or RPI. However, overall result was pay-scales for similar levels had fallen against inflation by between 13% and 23%. There are mitigating factors, job security is probably better than private sector and pensions are good but salaries did take an unhealthy hit.
  7. Aren't the figures becoming more meaningful? The "Active" on 3/5 was 28, ie 20 in Hospital and 8 presumed still unwell but self-isolating. Roger M has commented a few times that the "Still unwell" category was just the unwell who had not yet survived 14 days, ie after 14 days they dropped out of this category and into "got better". I guess this was OK as a best guess but it does lack a bit of precision. The newer figure of 41 "Active" looks like 20 in Hospital and 21 unwell and recuperating at home. As there were 4 new cases, it looks like some checking has been done and that 9 of those who should have got better by now, haven't yet. If my guesswork is correct, then the figures have become more meaningful. You could complain that they weren't perfect before or you could be pleased that they have improved, that depends on your disposition.
  8. I am sure it was great business but should it work? If the shares were acquired with the intention of selling them (when the development was complete) isn't that trading in shares and thus taxable? Although the Assessor sometimes challenges property sales as trading he/she rarely seem to attack shares sales. This tactic was also used for UK SDLT, caused a lot of bother.
  9. Derek - of course these questions must be asked. However, if the UK took over what do you think the IOM, and in particular, the economy, would look like. I do not know if it is likely to be considered and if it is, what would the response be, BUT, if the UK did take over I am reasonably sure they would impose UK law and taxes. That is not generally a bad thing but I suspect most of our wealth-generating businesses would not be able to live with the new tax position. Is there not a danger that we would be left with an economy comprising 800 crofters?
  10. If the Government's main financial problem is cashflow going forwards, how does borrowing fix this? Before Covid-19 I did not see any evidence that the Private Sector was being held back by lack of funds to invest in viable projects. On the contrary, the world seems flush with cash and if you have a good investment someone will fund it. I suspect the loan is to fund short-term liquidity given the recent reduced inflows and expanded outflows. Whilst this may be necessary, it will mean some belt-tightening in the future.
  11. You were not imagining things. 15/4/2020 : "In total 90 patients have been instructed to self-isolate and 13 are being treated at the hospital. The contact tracing process is already underway led by Public Health." This puzzled me at the time, I thought it was a typo but now I think it was a new-number - "Tested positive and still unwell" ie 258 - 13 - 4 - 151 = 90 (Positives less in Hospital less deceased less Presumed Recovered) I am also just trying to understand.
  12. My figures are very tentative and I am prepared to accept they could well need improvement so any queries are welcome. I think we generally agree. My 48 unwell in the community was just an effort to review the figure of 1 in the tweet referred to by Roger M. Your active 70 could well be the 48 unwell in the community plus the 22 in Hospital. I don't think MMCC residents can be part of the numbers as they did not produce a blip on arrival and if they were tested before they arrived would it not have been in the UK and added to UK figures? 272 self-isolating did not become 48. 272 became 269 self-isolating, 60 became 48 unwell in the community (maybe). A change of 12 being 9 who got better, 1 who passed away and 2 who went to Hospital (also, a big maybe).
  13. People should come to MF and ignore Twitter! Aaron I must have double-counted Abbotswood and he has lost a person (307 v 308) The Govt. presentation of the figures are not the clearest (I blame no-one for this, they have been developing as we go, under pressure) so I say the following somewhat tentatively but using 23/4, are the number of oustanding cases something like; Total Positive Tests 307 Being Treated at Hospital (22) Deceased (16) Presumed Recovered (221) Still unwell and self-isolating 48 48 is also what you get if you assume the recovered all come out of the self-isolating group. Still unwell: Originally self-isolating 269 Now Recovered (221) Still Unwell 48 The above might read well but I think I have used my assumption to prove my assumption, so the logic is not as sound as it looks. I do think the downturn in new cases now looks like a real decrease and not a blip ie lockdown seems to be working.
  14. There has been the odd error of 1 or 2 that is quickly corrected and I guess this has alarmed Roger. These small differences do matter as we need the population to have faith in what they are told. I can understand that getting accurate stats out quickly is putting someone under pressure and thus small glitches will happen. Roger suggests we can't have faith in "cases" as these are a function of testing which is reduced but isn't that likely to happen when we get over the top of the curve? The people who are ill will have been tested and less will feel ill so that there are less tests required? If you could rely on numbers re new cases, then the recent results show a significant reduction and I would expect this to be first indicator of success. Whilst some would expect some politicians to try to present information in its best light, I can't see clinicians or patients allowing untruths to be distributed so I expect any errors are the result of creaking systems and people doing new stuff under pressure. I am not an epidemiologist or clinician so whilst I generally have faith in the numbers and I think they show promise, I am content to let the experts advise when the optimal time to ease lock-down should be.
  15. Has John compared Total tests with Concluded tests? Total Tests 2554 2654 Concluded (2,503) (2,534) Awaiting Results 51 120 John compared 2,654 with 2,503 which are not the same thing.
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