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BenFairfax

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  1. Is this not the perfect time to slim down MLC ranks? At very least postpone appointments and see if anyone notices.
  2. Not going forward, IoM students now pay same 9.2K.
  3. I agree with your earlier post, with our geography being the main reason for this. IoM was certain a good place in see out the pandemic. Regarding the government handling, two issues I have are: (i) AFAIK the four deaths resulting from the SPC outbreak did not even receive a public apology from IOMG, and AFAIK no one was even sacked, Ian Kermode provides more details at: https://mmo.aiircdn.com/61/604b6f9087a3b.pdf (ii) With the roll out of the vaccination program. I was expecting a certain amount of (for want of a better term) fraud, but I cannot tally for example group 4, to be even close to the reported 4K+ in size. Both items put the IoM in a bad light.
  4. Replied to @wrighty detailed as a household we went into lockdown on 26th July until 2nd Aug. Others took similar steps, and some just continued as before. Each to their own.
  5. I mentioned in ideal world R(t) (R function of time), but then you end up with non-linear system of which implementation becomes lot more demanding. You end up having to use Monte Carlo simulation. However as I mentioned I could smudge this and get same effect with R=1.1 at Day 37. An even more refined model would be if R was a function time, cases, acute disease, fatalities. With models they form part of the public messaging, or at least should and a coherent narrative will need to be presented to the public. Regarding the message to 'crack on', I imagine that was the direction of Public Health England gave local representatives regarding message to be repeat to the population, to get the level of infections needed for Herd Immunity. Not saying that right or wrong, just that makes perfect sense for the programs messaging. The reactions are a range on the ground, but that was case with all the waves, excluding first one. What I can say for sure if we went into strict lockdown 26th until 2nd; in accordance with our agreed mitigation to the events occurring in the IoM.
  6. Total agree and regarding messaging IOMG should of treated us like adults and said: We going for a natural wave with mass infection in young, 2+2s please keep out the way (particularly high-risk ones) because 2+2 infections add nothing to 2+2 equivalence required for Herd Immunity.
  7. I always considered the hospital admissions as the only data point I could reasonably believe was a realistic reflection of reality. I completely agree with your points regarding testing and what exactly is in it for the individual to go for a PCR test, rather than just doing decent thinking and isolating until (at least) return negative LFT. Once COVID+ fully resting also reduces the likelihood of developing Long COVID. Regarding the peak, using SEIR model framework possible to get peak a few days after 31st, but soon the wave just runs out of hosts and peaks because of this rather than in part lack of hosts and in part change in behaviour. Now just in terms of model, very very unlikely peak not past, do not take my work for try moving parameter around: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0
  8. They were used as a smoke screen, and the plan was fixed in stone and came down the pipe from Public Health England, as run in British Virgin Islands, Jersey, and soon the UK. Choice was vax kids or mass infection in kids with some spillover, JCVI choose mass infection.
  9. I knew that the case numbers we would see, had good idea when acute outcomes would occur, and by considering past waves behaviors, on 8th July nailed in colors to the date 31st July (and stuck with it). The government I assume at direction of Public Health England were happy to ramp this wave, as much as possible, but clear that at some point particularly when we had acute outcomes people would freak out. The freak out date, naturally ties into the peak of exposure. Once you got a data, next you want to estimate a level. @wrighty told me my 'effective R =1.1' implied a lockdown lite, which I think is roughly what we have. I was expecting a big reaction because of the scale of the wave by 31st. After going around trying to grasp peoples reaction I think 1.1, may underestimate the reaction. In finance you measure freak out level, or the happy/depressed type of metrics, which feed into other things, but here I was faced with trying to predict the level of freak out. So I guess in part at least purely subjective estimate, I was expecting binary response, one minute happy to mix in crowds, the next 50% population gone into lockdown.
  10. I did not, was purely thinking in terms of risk/reward on offer now. Since we have 3 week gap for Biotec for Care Home population, they now also face wane in the vaccine's efficacy, 2nd jab over 6mths ago, at least according to this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1 The CM favourite "doomed if you do and doomed if you do not", likely applies here.
  11. My mate a fan of Ashford, what amazes me is he always has an answer, and just imagine the unbelievable amount grief he has had to put up with for 16 months. When he signed up, must have thought job will not be that bad, get usual moaners but that part of job, and then COVID hit.
  12. I said we are all 'attention seeking freaks', with celebrity you also have knock on effect of fandom. Where people with no personal connection to the rock star will defend and support them without question. But celebrity is two-sided coin, you get attention (at least short term until next boy/girl band turns up), thereafter you tour small venues endlessly playing songs you wrote 20 years ago, to overweight middle-aged people trying desperately to relive their youth. The Rock Star cannot escape the image the fans project onto them, they become a caricature of themselves, and forever unable to age with grace and dignity. In this context the IoM celebrities will pay the price by forever being frozen in time with their fans demanding endless renditions of their 'COVID Songs', be that waiting in the bank, or Tesco or just sitting on the boat.
  13. We are all victims of Social Media algorithms, even MF has a like button. If MF wanted to focus on the message, rather than turn us all into 'attention seeking freaks' then it would remove the like button. So whether we are, or are not attention seeking freaks, such behavior is being endorsed by MFs. There are now very few places on internet where the message is what counts rather than the celebrity. I get sucked into equating the value of someone's views with the number of followers/likes etc Sorry, bit off topic, but I miss the days when the message was all that counted.
  14. My thinking is at aggregate level you can compare the peak exposure with peak bed occupancy. In Jersey, the difference was 8 days. Which implies mostly young admitted, if same applies here peak in 4-5 days. However IoM bed occupancy is running at a higher rate (per exposure) and would imply more seepage from mass infection in young to older groups (or younger with comorbidities). As discussed in effect unvax regarding risk just scales your age up (i.e. can cannot distinguish between 50yo unvax and 80yo vax). Though reverse out all comorbidities etc, is hard going, we can consider inverse problem at aggregate level. You know I made sure had bit of slack with days in hospital at 9.4, and was thinking when closed nursing homes, would cause Nobles problem with discharging. But my 2 cents is Manx Care did the right thing, where we are now. [As side note: Going back to model you know I put in 'effective R = 1.1' on Day 37 (July 31st), reflecting expectation of people "freaking out", and going around South and how risk averse people are here, we have lockdown lite, and thinking R=0.7 be closer. Just thought throw that in. Here is model in that case, and assume school period more ramped in this case: https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.2&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.0123&R0=3.65&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322 ]
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