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Everything posted by BenFairfax

  1. Why pay some for advice when all they say is a citizen of one country, live in another country and put your assets in a 3rd country. @jaymann Hope any people who moved to Jersey did not put granny into a Jersey nursing house, since another one is seeing an outbreak. 2nd wave got to 25 dead, and was thinking yesterday get to around 30, but likely get few more with from new cursing home outbreak. Managed suppression strategy does not work, you cannot have a little bit of something if it exists grows exponentially. Elimination particularly for places like IoM which can control importati
  2. Exactly, been flying all time. Traveling to see close family one thing, but traveling to find distraction of otherwise pointless existence putting themselves and others at risk is another matter. Producing photos of social gatherings like its Christmas 2019, is another matter again. You have a decent number of people of working age who only moved to Isle of Man for tax reasons, and since they arrived have found nothing constructive to do with themselves. I would estimate 30% households which have kids in Buchan have no one "working" (being a silent partner/director and spending 4 months o
  3. It not wind up, believe me. They will come back with a good tan that for sure. You will see these people around. They would stick to quaranteen, but amazes me lack of empathy some people have. Funny thing is I thought guy was OK, wife bit of air head but that usually case when guy got bit of money.
  4. Do have one example of this? Did not listen to detail of presentation today, but imagine Treasury would be flagging this. Anyway, great to see a Jersey fan is back and I tally up 27 deaths in Jersey from 2nd wave (zero here), so would point out need to tally any economic gains against all future economic activity of these individuals.
  5. With testing, and false reassurance, why tell people the results prior to day 14. Regard to "meeting everyone on arrival was too much like hard work" remind as even of saying 'if they think safety is too expensive, try an accident'. "The 7%" - We all said here this is nonsense and found original article Lord Ashford was trying to quote. The assumption as I recall in the article was for a plane where all people boarding were tested. That not the same here, but saying that with UK introducing tests for inward travelers now, it is closer to reality with Manx residents which go on holida
  6. I have been quite annoyed the past few days (fairly rare) firstly because the recent outbreak was avoidable and secondly because I noticed people from known families on the island who decided going on Christmas holiday to locations with crowds from around the world with no social distancing is socially acceptable. On one hand, we get the Chief Minister telling us people should only make essential travel and on other people seeking off island and taking absolute liberties. Should the press be namely and shaming these people, and know from now on I will think of these people differently.
  7. Hope so, and quotes gave in November I would be adding a zero to all of them. Hope she dictates to leadership (with no scientific training) what the plan of action should be now. When advice non specialists I only even present Plan A, Plan A, or Plan A; never give a Plan B, because people could pick it.
  8. She wanted teachers to be able to travel during all school holidays (as 30 recently just have, resulting in abandoning kids for first week of term to serve isolation) and recently moaning in press regarding no exercise for people in isolation.
  9. 4 more died of COVID in Jersey, bringing 2nd wave dead toll to 19. All bar 1 in 2nd wave over 70, but as mentioned Long COVID effects not reflected in dead rate.
  10. Needed postpone in hope by 5pm, Dr Glover posted on twitter what needs to happen.
  11. I am not being distracted from checking @rachomics twitter feed to listen to Comin's views.
  12. I take offence to MHK or anyone else controlling information flow which is designed to stop me from panicking. It is my civil right to decide when I may or may not wish to panic. Here's Comin... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjxseHuUSYI
  13. If term 'snowflake' banned, then what do I replace it with. 10-20 years ago when lawyers told us could not put anything negative in references. We all agreed to use term "not very useful", to mean this person is unemployable w**ker. I hope term 'educationally disadvantaged', does not get banned since have hard time describing IoM education system. Heads managed to get 'appraisals', 'SSRE', 'external validation' all banned. Maybe next plan unions is make use of terms 'SATS', 'National Curriculum', 'Ofsted', 'league tables', 'choice' a criminal offence with fixed sentencing on 6 months in g
  14. Not really against this and just how it goes. If work in toothpaste factor you get first dibs on toothpaste, ditto people in healthcare. But strategically, with UK listing 1.6M staff, I assume we have around 1,600 healthcare staff here. If vaccinate all these straight off bat, then who will fill in for inevitable people who fail to turn up to their appointment. I would keep say 10-20 NHS staff on standby each day to pop down each day to take any jabs people fail to turn up for to previous loss. The JVCI schema does not optimize mortality risk to any granularity. There will be blood c
  15. Back in October, you had them, some explicit others just implied move to Jersey border policy. Life just too short for me to search through all posts to find posts and name posters (also think most do not use real name anyway). What we really wanted to know is after 4-5 hours on Irish sea and 15 mile walk, did he get his leg over! Discussed this pressing point with old man other day, and I was arguing he may have been done in by time got to Douglas.... Good to have expert medical advice on this issue.... Either way girl should have been impressed with effort. As side note, Jets
  16. Yep, 15 dead in Jersey 2nd wave, and existing known cases likely to see this climb to over 20. But 20 great outcomes for them, with 2K+ known cases in 2nd wave (since real cases lot more than 2K). Whether 20+ deaths too high a price to allow few thousand to go shopping in UK, and skiing in Switzerland is another matter, but reflects on nature of their society. The sum of lost years will be greatest from Long COVID effects. No clear details to date bar BMJ saying long COVID effects 10% of infections, and radiologist reporting up to 10% patients have permanent lung damage. But on back of en
  17. Numbers never lie, and cream (and s**t) always floats to top. I would also overlay economic effects, which gone same way as health outcomes (but cannot be bothered to look at data since all Jersey fanboys gone into hiding on MF).
  18. Exactly, and also CM Howard Quayle does not decide what is a suitable question or line of enquiry. Free press in liberal democracy is essential in holding the government to account. I think in case is CM trying to influence press as was case today and previously is outrageous. Manx people as is the case in UK should be protected by clear principles in expectations of behaviour in public office.
  19. Reminds me of old business saying: 'if you think safety is expensive, try an accident'. At least debate moved on from lets be like Jersey, to should we suggest people in 1886 on 26th Dec visit granny this week. As ever it not a balance of health versus economy, the only way to enable functioning economy (particular night time economy) is to control virus. All my family bar 1 is in the UK and it a s**tstorm, regarding ordinary working families just being able to perform their usual commercial activity efficiently.
  20. What happens in NICE signs off a biosimilar medication, then management comes along and moves all patients by default to new generic option, and see what happens.
  21. Gaming industry know gambling only for people who cannot understand overround and law of large numbers. Since went to 1886, if healthcare likely it junior doctor or similar.
  22. I would back that this imported case is the new strain, and also back that further cases will come to light from this importation. Bet365 could set up few spread bets on number of official cases.
  23. Wife and daughter were christmas shopping all day in Douglas on 23rd and want me to tell them probability of being infected and I have no clear idea. I know it is not 0%.... What concerns me is on 26th in 1886, and if infected others, after 4 day virus incubation I assume such people would be back out last night. Social network group growth is a power function. On paper this seeding event from COVID point is view was both perfectly timed, and found ideal agents.
  24. I was thinking the same, and add JVCI to list too. For confidence and clarity for all of us, be useful to have more details on this. In end, when I get appointment I will get down doctors pronto, whatever protocol is. What will happen is UK will provide us with large data set on 1 dose schema from next week. If none 1 dosers turn up as positive, who likely been kissing grandkids by then, plan for here be clearer. Lord Ashford and Sir Quayle, let Jersey do beta on borders, and why not let UK do beta on vaccine timing? On IoM, if do 2 doses, will have grannies who go to Spain for bi
  25. Do you have a reference for this claim? With 21 day's original advice was at least 21 days, idea of exactly 21 days was invented by Lord Ashford. JCVI who I am sure carefully went through all data they had is very clear on this. Professor Wei Shen Lim, COVID-19 Chair for JCVI, said: "For both vaccines, high-levels of protection are evident after the first dose of vaccine. JCVI advises priority should be given to the first dose, to maximise the public health benefits in the current situation and save more lives."
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