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BenFairfax

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Everything posted by BenFairfax

  1. Tribunal report details that Dr Ranson in March 2020, and I assume yourself thankfully (and I have genuine gratitude) sidestepped the wall chart to detail in person how COVID if left unchecked would lead to medics' needing to select who to ventilate within 6 weeks, because Nobles would become swamped. We will never know exactly what would have happened if those meetings never happened, but I think safe to say initial lockdown would have been delayed, resulting in more deaths, illness and disruption.
  2. Exactly, but can also understand his stated reaction when faced with load women bitching all the time. But also means his MBE at least on management side was for impersonating a Health Minister. On public messaging side he always had an answer for everything, which I imagine occupied all his time and energy. [His mate also got COVID 4 times which "proves" herd immunity does not exist ]
  3. To July we had zero COVID policy and got all high risk groups vaccinated. And though we now have similar cumulative total infections since start as England for example we have lot lower death rate because bulk infections occured post vaccination. I know asked about H rates and good point but do not have that data to hand. Saying that from July 2021, when opened up we have had higher cases as you said and proportionate higher deaths. Broadly speaking I think we adopted right policy, and certainly rather been resident in IoM during this period than UK.
  4. This been gone over several times, and we got stuffed by JCVI anyway, but could held borders until 18th July when schools broke up and vaxed as many kids over holidays as possible. With NZ and Oz, the number of cases as least are clear:
  5. It was bang on mate! I had 22 max bed occupancy. The GMP freaked out slightly more than expected so wave dropped off slightly faster than expected. Rest was as expected. Having a handle on timing and magnitude of the wave, help with planning both at individuals and societal level.
  6. The H rate of 0.4% for Omi, I am just going off SA data: The cases are what you can get a very good handle on, the H rate is estimated. But people naturally want to know peak bed occupancy for planning, so included this. UK PH already put out models with H rates of 0.5%, 1%, and 1.5%; which I think is too high.
  7. 39.5% people in their lifetime will get a cancer diagnosis (https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics#:~:text=Approximately 39.5% of men and,will die of the disease.). With COVID I had 1.25% as the H rate in July, for this coming wave I have 0.4% (at present),.... The means 99.6% are not admitted. ONS has 1.9% report Long COVID. COVID is hardly 'doom and despair', and at for people outside these groups. Few hundred years ago the state would had done absolute zero until 10% population was in the box. And people are moaning now.
  8. I have no idea who you are, you are annonymous account on Manx Forums. In forum thread with COVID in title I assume means the topic of the day is COVID. COVID is what is it, press produced lot click bait over past 2 years, it either we found new wonder drug, or we all going to get put in a box. With speculation, it would not exist if we were just told the facts. Most people can cope with idea that we have a new virus in circulation and until we build up collection immunity it will cause disruption. Whether than view qualifies me as a "Doom and gloom merchant" I do not know, but I will continue anyway.
  9. Expecting this sort of time span here, 3 weeks to peak once takes off.
  10. Also confusion regard PCR+, and when S-gene dropout test was done, or whatever test used determine PCR+ is not Delta. No idea if both tests are done at same time. One who asked PCR test post becoming symptomatic implies to me traveled from CTA, did LFT was negative and then went on to develop symptoms. As said fact we not being told relevant dates, I assume means Government hopes this seeding event fizzles out (as is possible). Naturally other seeders will be introduced, and Omi wave is inevtiable.
  11. From information I have 5th-8th Dec looks most likely dates. In June you could put pieces together to get 22nd-25th June with June 24th by far most likely initial seeding. No idea why Government being so secretive this time around. Thx pointer, you know firsthand they got off a plane?
  12. We would expect others to test positive from 5 days afterwards (avg incubation period), key thing for me now and trying to find out when these two got off the boat/plane? (i.e. Day 0)
  13. Is this not the perfect time to slim down MLC ranks? At very least postpone appointments and see if anyone notices.
  14. Not going forward, IoM students now pay same 9.2K.
  15. I agree with your earlier post, with our geography being the main reason for this. IoM was certain a good place in see out the pandemic. Regarding the government handling, two issues I have are: (i) AFAIK the four deaths resulting from the SPC outbreak did not even receive a public apology from IOMG, and AFAIK no one was even sacked, Ian Kermode provides more details at: https://mmo.aiircdn.com/61/604b6f9087a3b.pdf (ii) With the roll out of the vaccination program. I was expecting a certain amount of (for want of a better term) fraud, but I cannot tally for example group 4, to be even close to the reported 4K+ in size. Both items put the IoM in a bad light.
  16. Replied to @wrighty detailed as a household we went into lockdown on 26th July until 2nd Aug. Others took similar steps, and some just continued as before. Each to their own.
  17. I mentioned in ideal world R(t) (R function of time), but then you end up with non-linear system of which implementation becomes lot more demanding. You end up having to use Monte Carlo simulation. However as I mentioned I could smudge this and get same effect with R=1.1 at Day 37. An even more refined model would be if R was a function time, cases, acute disease, fatalities. With models they form part of the public messaging, or at least should and a coherent narrative will need to be presented to the public. Regarding the message to 'crack on', I imagine that was the direction of Public Health England gave local representatives regarding message to be repeat to the population, to get the level of infections needed for Herd Immunity. Not saying that right or wrong, just that makes perfect sense for the programs messaging. The reactions are a range on the ground, but that was case with all the waves, excluding first one. What I can say for sure if we went into strict lockdown 26th until 2nd; in accordance with our agreed mitigation to the events occurring in the IoM.
  18. Total agree and regarding messaging IOMG should of treated us like adults and said: We going for a natural wave with mass infection in young, 2+2s please keep out the way (particularly high-risk ones) because 2+2 infections add nothing to 2+2 equivalence required for Herd Immunity.
  19. I always considered the hospital admissions as the only data point I could reasonably believe was a realistic reflection of reality. I completely agree with your points regarding testing and what exactly is in it for the individual to go for a PCR test, rather than just doing decent thinking and isolating until (at least) return negative LFT. Once COVID+ fully resting also reduces the likelihood of developing Long COVID. Regarding the peak, using SEIR model framework possible to get peak a few days after 31st, but soon the wave just runs out of hosts and peaks because of this rather than in part lack of hosts and in part change in behaviour. Now just in terms of model, very very unlikely peak not past, do not take my work for try moving parameter around: https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0
  20. They were used as a smoke screen, and the plan was fixed in stone and came down the pipe from Public Health England, as run in British Virgin Islands, Jersey, and soon the UK. Choice was vax kids or mass infection in kids with some spillover, JCVI choose mass infection.
  21. I knew that the case numbers we would see, had good idea when acute outcomes would occur, and by considering past waves behaviors, on 8th July nailed in colors to the date 31st July (and stuck with it). The government I assume at direction of Public Health England were happy to ramp this wave, as much as possible, but clear that at some point particularly when we had acute outcomes people would freak out. The freak out date, naturally ties into the peak of exposure. Once you got a data, next you want to estimate a level. @wrighty told me my 'effective R =1.1' implied a lockdown lite, which I think is roughly what we have. I was expecting a big reaction because of the scale of the wave by 31st. After going around trying to grasp peoples reaction I think 1.1, may underestimate the reaction. In finance you measure freak out level, or the happy/depressed type of metrics, which feed into other things, but here I was faced with trying to predict the level of freak out. So I guess in part at least purely subjective estimate, I was expecting binary response, one minute happy to mix in crowds, the next 50% population gone into lockdown.
  22. I did not, was purely thinking in terms of risk/reward on offer now. Since we have 3 week gap for Biotec for Care Home population, they now also face wane in the vaccine's efficacy, 2nd jab over 6mths ago, at least according to this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1 The CM favourite "doomed if you do and doomed if you do not", likely applies here.
  23. My mate a fan of Ashford, what amazes me is he always has an answer, and just imagine the unbelievable amount grief he has had to put up with for 16 months. When he signed up, must have thought job will not be that bad, get usual moaners but that part of job, and then COVID hit.
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