Jump to content
Coronavirus topics renamed and some locked. No new topics. ×
Manx Forums, Live Chat, Blogs & Classifieds for the Isle of Man
Sign in to follow this  
manxman2

Betting.

Recommended Posts

a guy i have known for 4 years thru a mutual interest in racing at that time has continued throughout the intervening years to produce consistantly profitable race ratings/

 

i get his email everyday even tho my time for .. and interest in racing had virtually disappeared .. however that has now changed and i am going to find my own trends with profitable percentages again .. but in the mean time i am going to examine rons 6 year archive of rated races and try and discover his strenghts and weaknesses as cherry picking a certified profitable punters trends is the right way to dip my toes back in the water i feel.

 

i am not forgetting to be profitable overall you have to minimise your losses bank management is the key to prevailing over the masses .. theres no such thing as a fun bet..

 

so i am going to put a few of rons advices up here and the prices they could be bet at .. at the time of posting and where the prices are avaliable.

 

there will not be any grey areas all bets will be clearly advised and until the end of may i will be only paper trialing this .. i need time to re-aquaint myself alittle.

 

i will also include a few bets i think are decent punts and will keep them separate from rons advices.

 

ron asks for nothing more for his advices than a donation now and then to a racing charity of your choice .. he has so far raised over 800k for various racing charities .. you do not send him money just a photo copy of the reciept if you so wish .. he demands nothing ..

 

 

these advices are free and their value/worth can be assessed before implementation.

 

 

all bets will be £100 a point. .. and all betting exchange returns will be reduced by 5% to reflect basic rate commission payed.

 

date /// profit/loss // running total. // comm // total comm

12 may /// -£541.81 ///// £-541.81 /////// £4.69 /////// £4.69

13 may /// +£32.10 ///// £-509.71 /////// £27.18/////// £31.87

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

todays email.

 

Race 1... WARWICK 3-20

BOLLIN FRANNY....+18

WHAT KATIE DID....+13

MAKE MY DREAM....+12

MONSIEUR REYNARD....+3

AFFIRMATIVELY....-8

THE MAGIC BLANKET....-18

One to punt - BOLLIN FRANNY, WHAT KATIE DID

 

One to lay - DANCING RHYTHM, FIZZLEPHUT

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 2 x 20/80's rated horses 2 and 4 plus, we'll look closely at the combo exotics.

 

................................................................................

......................................................

 

 

using betfair sp as i was not here .. the dutch was as follows.

 

both lays were successful and at bf SPs of .. 5.9{4.9/1} for £25 and 7{6/1} for £21 .. gross profit £46 liability on first £122.50 and second £126 however both cannot win so each liability is reduced by the other bets profit .. reducing the liabilies to £101.50 and £101

 

 

BOLLIN FRANNY.... 17s{16/1}

WHAT KATIE DID....9.8{8.8/1}

MAKE MY DREAM.... 11s{10/1}

MONSIEUR REYNARD....33s{32/1} .. outlay £28.20 lost.

 

2x 20/80s unplaced loss -£200 prices immaterial..

 

 

result. paid 4 places

 

1 (4) Sands Crooner (IRE)

2 (11) 3¾ Make My Dream

3 (15) ns Ask Jenny (IRE)

4 (1) ½ Fizzlephut (IRE)

 

total loss £182.20

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

...........................

 

 

Race 2... WARWICK 5-20

MAGIC WARRIOR....+8

JACKIE KIELY....-6

GOOSE GREEN....-8

HILL OF LUJAIN....-11

BARBIROLLI....-13

CORAL SHORES....-17

One to punt - MAGIC WARRIOR, JACKIE KIELY

 

One to lay - MURRUMBIDGEE NR

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Low draw essential here. Rated horses 1, 2, 3 and 6 dutched, 20/80's the top two and combo exotics.

 

................................................................................

.................................

 

dutch.

MAGIC WARRIOR.... £3.44 @ 27/1

JACKIE KIELY....£11.62 @ 7.6/1

GOOSE GREEN....£2.32 @41/1

CORAL SHORES...£17.85 @4.6/1

 

20/80s magic warrior 3.6/1 jackie keely 2.12 the places

 

5.20 dutch won gross profit £64.77

2x 20/80s unplaced loss -£200

 

paid 4 places.

1 (7) Coral Shores

2 (3) 5l Stateside (CAN)

3 (16) 1l Dr Mcfab

4 (11) 1l Barbirolli

 

total loss £135.33

................................................................................

...........................................................................

 

 

Race 3... BEVERLEY 3-00

FIRST SWALLOW....+14

ROYAL COMPOSER....+7

HIGHLAND WARRIOR....+5

BAYBESHAMBLES....+4

BUY ON THE RED....+4

ANGLE OF ATTACK....+3

One to punt - FIRST SWALLOW, ROYAL COMPOSER

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 20/80's ROYAL COMPOSER and BAYBESHAMBLES plus, those combos again.

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

.....................

 

dutch these 4 to return £100

 

FIRST SWALLOW.... 15s {14/1} back for £6.66

ROYAL COMPOSER....15s {14/1} back for £6.66

HIGHLAND WARRIOR.... 160s{159/1 back for £0.62

BAYBESHAMBLES.... 6s{5/1} back for £16.66

 

and 20/80s 2 and 4 .

 

ROYAL COMPOSER.... 15s {14/1} back for £20 to win and £80 the place @ 4.7

BAYBESHAMBLES....6s{5/1} back for £20 to win and £80 the place @ 2.61

 

result.

baby shambles places 2nd gross profit £129.60

dutch unsuccessful - £30.60

 

losses £150.60 gross profit £129.60

 

result

1 (10) Pacific Pride

2 (11) ns Baybshambles (IRE)

3 (8) ¾ Tangerine Trees

4 (5) ½ Desperate Dan

 

total loss £21

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

...

 

 

Race 4... BEVERLEY 3-30

HANDSOME FALCON....+21

NEVADA DESERT....+19

BUSTAN....+14

OBSERVATORY STAR....+7

CAPTAIN MCGARRY....+5

SPIN AGAIN....+4

One to punt - HANDSOME FALCON, NEVADA DESERT

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Seriously tight race and whilst I'll go with my top four, dutched, a brace of 20/80's my top two, it will come as no surprise if my 5th best scuppers my bets!

 

................................................................................

................................................................

 

 

handsome falcon places 2nd to get paid at bf sp of 1.68 return £54.40 gross profit.

other 20/80 unplaced and the dutch failed at a cost of £39.07 to return £100.

 

total losses £159.07 profit £54.40

 

result.

1 (8) Billy Dane (IRE)

2 (6) 1½ Handsome Falcon

3 (11) 2 Captain Macarry (IRE)

4 (10) ½ Jebel Tara

 

total losses £104.67

 

 

................................................................................

...............................................................

 

 

 

 

 

Race 5... BEVERLEY 5-00

ROSSINI'S DANCER....+24

GENERAL FEELING....+14

SHADOWTIME....+8

AUSSIE BLUE....+6

SARWIN....-3

EMPEROR'S WELL....-3

One to punt - ROSSINI'S DANCER, GENERAL FEELING

 

One to lay - ACE OF SPIES

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 20/80's the top pair and combos, for sure.

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

 

dutch.

ROSSINI'S DANCER.... 5.8{4.8/1}

GENERAL FEELING....28s{27/1}

SHADOWTIME.... 9.8{8.8/1}

AUSSIE BLUE....20s{19/1}

 

20/80s

ROSSINI'S DANCER.... £20 win 4.8/1 £80 @ 1.80 to place

GENERAL FEELING.... £20 win 27/1 £80 @ 5.4/1 to place

 

 

the lay of ace of spies looks a decent punt as its only won one race in 22 runs and that was of its lowest bhb rating of 50 gone up 7lb and an extra furlong for that here and harker will want it back down to sub 50 to get another win out of i feel so i would even lay the place so an 80/20 lay here. .. even without assuming harkers intentions its got the plum worst draw in todays going..

4 places paid.

lay the place @ 1.79{4/5} = liability £19.75 for £25 gross return

lay the win @ 5.5{9/2} = liability £81 for £18 gross return.

 

i think the clever money nearer the start will push the price of this one out so cheaper to lay now 4.39pm.

 

shadowtimes is the steamer and still contracting..

 

6.20 £1,114 £1,594

6.40 £626 £7,400

6.60 £443 £2,099

6.80 £440 £2,313

7.00 £89 £8,515

7.20 £11 £3,420

7.40 £68 £8,030

7.60 £4 £2,891

7.80 £208

8.00 £29 £275 £4

8.20 £0 £187

8.40 £5 £768

8.60 £954

8.80 £2 £425

9.00 £68 £1,183

9.20 £12 £2,085

9.40 £1,190

9.60 £115 £768

9.80 £500

10.00 £19 £938

10.50 £52 £981

11.00 £4 £166 £36

11.50 £16 £181 £4

12.00 £26 £120

12.50 £0 £50

13.00 £15

13.50 £16 £7

14.00 £8 £3

15.00 £65 £7

 

shadowtime got knick in a photo..

 

after trading at all these prices below evens in-play .. right down to 1/33 33 to one on.. lay for £3 to win £100 in money terms..

 

1.03 £928 £1,649

1.04 £711

1.05 £1,209

1.06 £395

1.10 £428

1.11 £1,198

1.12 £576

1.13 £128

1.14 £148

1.15 £576

1.16 £9

1.17 £1

1.19 £500

1.20 £274

1.21 £104

1.22 £1,262

1.25 £140

1.26 £288

1.27 £324

1.29 £127

1.30 £1,354

1.32 £11

1.33 £1,178

1.34 £60

1.36 £60

1.37 £1

1.40 £3,029

1.41 £479

1.42 £46

1.45 £189

1.49 £0

1.50 £696

1.51 £1,336

1.52 £164

1.53 £47

1.54 £807

1.55 £1,125

1.56 £451

1.57 £3,000

1.59 £16

1.60 £206

1.61 £88

1.62 £368

1.63 £22

1.65 £18

1.66 £10

1.67 £1,522

1.70 £29

1.71 £10

1.74 £9

1.75 £90

1.77 £8

1.79 £175

1.80 £140

1.81 £6

1.82 £107

1.84 £120

1.88 £56

1.90 £319

1.93 £44

1.97 £521

1.98 £186

2.00 £829

 

result.

the lay of both place and win on ace of spies paid £43 gross

2 x 20/80s were 5th and 6th but reflect a loss of -£200

the dutch lost -£36.01

 

paid 4 places.

1 (9) Sarwin (USA)

2 (12) ns Shadowtime

3 (5) 4l Umverti

4 (13) ½ Carpe Diem

 

total loss £193.01

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

 

 

 

 

Race 6... BRIGHTON 2-40

MULTAHAB....+20

TODBER....+4 ..NR

PEOPLETON BROOK....+1

GONE'N'DUNNETT....+/-0

HART OF GOLD....-1

CALABAZA....-7 ..NR

One to punt - MULTAHAB, TODBER

 

One to lay - BILLY RED

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top two dutched, 20/80 MULTAHAB and a top three combo.

 

................................................................................

...........................................................................

 

 

first recommendation was multahab and toddler dutched. .. in 2.40 brighton.

 

toddler a non runner.

 

multahab is now a clear top rated selection and an advised punt at 20/80 .. £20win and £80 place bet.

 

betting exchanges pay the original amount of places despite non runners and betfair are paying first 3.

 

win = £20 @ 6.8 {5.8/1} gross returns £116.00

place = £80 @ 2.02 {evens} gross returns £81.60

 

billy red was also a recommended lay .. have swerved because of non runners.

 

 

result 3rd 20/80 paid £81.60 gross

 

loses £20 profit £81.60

 

result.

1 (2) Orpen's Art (IRE)

2 (10) sh Billy Red

3 (3) 2½ Multahab

 

total gross profit £61.60 - £58.55 net.. commission £3.05

 

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

.....................

 

Race 7... BRIGHTON 3-40

WRIGHTY ALMIGHTY....+21

MY FLAME....+1

RED CURRENT....-1

MICK IS BACK....-10..NR

CANDY ROSE....-11 ..NR

YOUR GOLF TRAVEL....-16

One to punt - WRIGHTY ALMIGHTY, MY FLAME

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

I really like my top rated here so, a decent 20/80, top four dutched and I'll certainly have a pop at the exotics.

 

................................................................................

................................................................................

.

....

 

only the 20/80 here wrighty almighty with non runners//

 

£20 win @ 2.85/1 £80 to place @ 1.66.

 

3rd £52.80 profit £20 loss.

 

result.

1 (3) Mr Fantozzi (IRE)

2 (2) nk Yakama (IRE)

3 (13) 2¼ Wrighty Almighty (IRE)

 

total gross profit £32.80 net profit £31.16 commision paid £1.64.

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

what happened to the tips people gave ya and you ran down and slammed a tenner for it/them? :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

todays email not arrived.

 

been to his site..

 

i cannot copy and paste it direct here as the right click mouse function does not work on his ratings page. a right pain in the arse thats going to be..

 

1.40.

 

moonquake

checklow

bencoolen

albaqua for the dutch. @ £32.38

 

20/80s checklow{13.5 / 12.5/1win & 4.2 / 3.2/1place} bencoolen{16.5 / 15.5/1win & 4.9 / 3.9/1place}

 

lay stone of crone {6.8 / 5.8/1} .. meethaaq {6.2 / 5.2/1} .. rose street {6.6 / 5.6/1} .. red jade.NR

 

...........................................................

 

result.

1 (5) Moonquake (USA)

2 (3) ½ Checklow (USA)

3 (6) 1¾ Stone Of Scone

4 (10) 1¾ Albaqaa

http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/timeform

 

3 x lays.

stone of crone 6.8

£27.00 for liability of £156.60

meethaaq 6.2

£30.00 for liability of £156.00

rose street 6.6

£28.00 for liability of £156.80 .. if any would have won the 2 losers would subsidised the loss down to these 3 liabilities ..£98.60 / £101.00 / £99.80.

 

profit on lays £85 gross.

the dutch shows a profit of £67.62 gross

the 20/80s show 2x £20 loses and 1x £80 losses £120 checklow placed at 4.2 {3.2/1} for £80 shows a profit of £256 net £136 gross

 

total gross £288.62 .. £274.19 net after commission.{£14.43 @ 5%}

 

 

 

 

.............................................................

 

3.45

dzesmin {22s / 21/1}

serious impact {5.6 / 4.6/1}

birkside {14s / 13/1}.. the dutch... @£29.54

 

dzesmin 20/80 and straight win serious impact.

 

.....................................................................

 

1 (5) Spring Jim

2 (9) ½ Dazzling Light (UAE)

3 (19) 1¼ Serious Impact (USA)

4 (7) 1½ King Fingal (IRE)

 

str8 win losses £100

20/80 unplaced minus £100

dutch failed minus £29.54

 

total loss £229.54

 

 

 

..............................................................................

 

6.10

 

double spectre

gracechurch

terminate 4.5 {3.5/1}

compton charlie..NR..the dutch top 3 only .. cost £37.68

 

20/80s double spectre and gracechurch.

 

20/80s

double spectre 9.8 {8.8/1} the win and 3.1 {2.1/1} the place

gracechurch 19s {18/1} the win and 5.1 {4.1/1}the place

 

lay coral shores NR.. party palace 4.3 {3.3/1} for £33 liability £99

 

 

................................................................................

 

result.

1 (13) Terminate (GER)

2 (1) 1 Piper's Song (IRE)

3 (11) ¾ Party Palace

 

 

dutch profit £62.82

both 20/80s beaten minus £200

lay successful profit £33

 

loss on race of £104.28

 

 

i would lay party palace now at 4.3 {3.3/1} will drift to a larger price i think.

 

it has now drifted to 9.6 9.8 and tens i have just seen .. no chance is this one trying today..

 

Projected Betfair Starting Price: 9.76

 

 

................................................................

.......................

 

rons email did come eventually..

 

Not a great day yesterday but every now and again, "they" win.

 

Two races from York below and I'll have four races from Bath on my website from 5-30pm this afternoon.

 

Have a great day!

 

Race 1... YORK 1-40

MOONQUAKE....+21

CHECKLOW....+17

BENCOOLEN....+15

ALBAQAA....+11

ROAD TO LOVE....+10

SLAM....-10

One to punt - MOONQUAKE, CHECKLOW

 

One to lay - STONE OF SCONE, MEETHAAQ, ROSE STREET, RED JADE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

A very competitive start to the meeting but I'll play my figures as they have fallen. top four dutch, 20/80's CHECKLOW and BENCOOLEN with combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 2... YORK 3-45

DZESMIN....+18

SERIOUS IMPACT....+14

BIRKSIDE....+4

KING FINGAL...-5

OVERRULE....-9

ALL IN THE RED....-10

One to punt - DZESMIN, SERIOUS IMPACT

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Very happy with my figures here. Top three dutch and combos the same trio. 20/80 DZESMIN and a straight win bet SERIOUS IMPACT.

 

 

................................................................................

..

 

 

 

 

the other 3 races he talked about tonight..

 

 

 

7.40 str8 win bet pelham crescent.

 

straight win £100 pelham cresent wins @ 3.45 / 2.45/1 virtually 5/2 .. sp 9/4. gross profit £245 net £232.75 .. commision £12.75 @5%.

 

 

 

...............................................................................

 

 

8.10 dutch .. nepolitano / magroom / cool ebony

. . 2 x 20/80s nepolitano / cool ebony

pays 4 places bf

 

postponed due to slippery bend.

 

 

..................................................................

 

 

8.40 dutch top 4 blushing maid / matterofact / bohobeNR / dualage

. . . 2 x 20/80s bohobeNR / matterofact

 

pays 3 places bf

 

...................................................................

 

result.

1 (3) Pinball (IRE)

2 (6) 1 Dualagi

3 (9) 1¼ Bahamian Ceilidh

 

dutch cost £41.02 lost.

20/80 matterofact £100 unplaced.

 

loss £141.02

 

................................................................................

.........

 

 

 

Profit on day £32.10

 

 

 

 

will use betfair sp win and place as im off now.

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the 4.55 looks a classy little race and i would be tempted now to lay marching time and raaeidd 50/50 win and place. both at bang on evens the place .. which means both have to place to beat me.. .. these are fresh horses in a big field of 18 runners most of whome have a run under their belt. 6 of whome are coming into the race off a win last time out and its a quality york meeting.

 

win market

marching time lay @ 6s 5/1 £13

raaeidd lay @ 5s 4/1 £16

liabilities £49 & £51 if either wins .. returns total £29 if neither wins .. thats good punt i think giving a good bit less than 2/1 the pair..

place market lay both @ bang on evens. liabilities £100 if both place .. break even if one placed win £100 if both unplaced 4 places paid 17 runners now..

 

marching time is drifting was only 4/1 an hour ago .. raaeidd is tightening but 5s is lowest so far.. @4.22.pm

 

also a £10 win on the interesting puzzlemaster. i would be looking for around 55s win and 10s the place. .. it will go higher than that tho as its 40s with the books and will lenghen near the off .

 

i would take puzzlemaster now at 48s .47/1 as its tightened into 25s with the books,, .. i would be looking to lay it at 5/1 6s inplay for my tenner back leaving £420 still in the win .. then i would also put in a lay for £100 at evens as insurance .. still leaving £320 the win .. or £100 if it gets nailed close home..

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

results my suggested bets so far.

 

the lay of ace of spies looks a decent punt as its only won one race in 22 runs and that was of its lowest bhb rating of 50 gone up 7lb and an extra furlong for that here and harker will want it back down to sub 50 to get another win out of i feel so i would even lay the place so an 80/20 lay here. .. even without assuming harkers intentions its got the plum worst draw in todays going..

4 places paid.

lay the place @ 1.79{4/5} = liability £19.75 for £25 gross return

lay the win @ 5.5{9/2} = liability £81 for £18 gross return.

profit £43.00

 

win market

marching time lay @ 6s 5/1 £13

raaeidd lay @ 5s 4/1 £16

liabilities £49 & £51 if either wins .. returns total £29 if neither wins .. thats good punt i think giving a good bit less than 2/1 the pair..

place market lay both @ bang on evens. liabilities £100 if both place .. break even if one placed win £100 if both unplaced 4 places paid 17 runners now

raaeidd 3rd.

win bet unplaced no insurance lays either lost £10

2x lays in win market successful profit £29.00

2 x place lays .. one win one lose .. profit/loss £0.00

 

profit on race £19.00

 

 

+£43.00

+£19.00

=£62.00

 

total net comm £58.90 comm £3.10 @ 5%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

another bet i like the look of.

 

i would be looking to lay white shift 7.10 bath here its a joke race for donkeys however any little bits of form this horse has is on right handed tracks and bath is a left handed track and it has landed a piss poor draw.

 

can belayed at 4s [3/1} or there abouts right now it will drift when the pros get stuck in.

 

its a value lay at 3/1 {4s bf} .. lay for £33 liability £99..

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

odays email.

 

A fantastic start to our York meeting as the opening race produced a superb 117/1 trifecta, the dutch landed, a 20/80 on CHECKLOW landed and all the lays that turned up beaten. Magic!

Bath figures were well rewarded as PELHAM CRESCENT, advised as a straight win bet, bolted up @ 9/4.

I'll have just one race from Newmarket that I'm sure will produce another winner for us.

 

Have a great day!

 

Race 1... YORK 1-40

SUPERMASSIVE MUSE....+24

TOURNEDOS....+22

HAMISH MCGONAGALL....+14

EVERYMANFORHIMSELF....+10

STRIKE UP THE BAND....+2

OSTERHASE....-1

One to punt - SUPERMASSIVE MUSE, TOURNEDOS

 

One to lay - CHEVETON

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Dandy Nicholls has come mob handed for this event and I'm sure most will feel his son is riding the potential winner. He's fifth best on my figures and it's four years since the horse won on good to firm. He is a consistent horse but his wins to runs ratio is appalling, just one win since 2006. I much prefer one of his other runners, TOURNEDOS. He seems a little brittle but his last win was here, over five furlongs on good to firm. He could have been a little better drawn but I'll play 20/80. I'll also have me a top four combo exotic with a dutch the same horses.

 

the dutch cost £31.57 lost minus £31.57

the 20/80 £100 unplaced -£100

lay of cheveton successful @ 6.4 for £19.00 liabilty £102.60

 

total loss on race .. £112.57

 

................................................................

 

 

Race 2... YORK 3-10

MIA'S BOY....+26

YAMAL....+21

LIZARD ISLAND....+13

HUZZAH....+8

BLYTHE KNIGHT....+1

JOSEPH HENRY....+/-0

One to punt - MIA'S BOY, YAMAL

 

One to lay - LANG SHINING

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

A superb race and one I'll simply play as my figures have fallen. Top two dutch, 2 x 20/80's and a reverse exacta. For trifecta purposes I'd cover my top four.

 

................................................................................

....

 

the dutch £28.57 both 7s {6/1} successful profit £71.43 gross

lay at 7.4 for £17 liability £102.40 successful profit £17 gross

2 x 20/80s £200. lost 1x £20 1 x £20 1st profit £120 2 x £80 placed profit £169.60 profit

 

the 2 place bets were easily achived at 2.06 each as both traded higher.

 

pays 4 places bf.

result.

1 (4) Yamal (IRE)

2 (5) ½ Philario (IRE)

3 (8) nk Mia's Boy

4 (13) 2¾ Lovelace

 

 

profit on race £358.03 gross // net profit £340.13 // comm paid £17.90 @ 5%

 

........................................................................

....

 

 

Race 3... YORK 4-55

INCHPAST....-14

DAYIA....-17

LEGION D'HONNEUR....-17

BRIDGEWATER BOYS....-20

SONNY SAM....-20

SWEETHEART....-23

One to punt - INCHPAST, DAYIA

 

One to lay - KAYF ARAMIS

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

I believe I've gotten the Venetia William's trained favourite beaten, here. Again I'm of a mind this horse is ground dependant o the flat and the rains that are forecast for the weekend might arrive to late for this one. The horse love this track, true but, both his wins here have come on soft and good to soft....reason enough to take him on unless those heavens open early. What's going to win then? Truth is, this is trappy in the extreme. I'd have to run with my figures, which don't speak well of any of these and dutch my top three, 20/80 DAYIA and combo exotics.

 

 

.........................................................................

 

dayia NR still going to dutch top 3 bridgewater boys is now in.

 

kayf is trading 2.35 now just under 5/2 .. for the lay £43 for £101.05 liability.

 

dutch costs £20.12 11/1 9.5/1 43/1

 

result.

1 (14) Kayf Aramis

2 (8) 13 Rose Bien

3 (13) 1¾ Go Amwell

 

dutch lost minus £20.12

the lay was unsuccessful minus £101.05

 

lost on race £121.17.

 

......................................................

 

 

 

one for tonight on his site 7.25.

 

dona alba str8 win £100.

 

 

........................................................

 

 

Regards

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

todays email.

 

 

Race 1... YORK 2-10

WARRINGAH....+6

CHARLIE TOKYO....+6

BOLLIN FELIX....+4

MESBAAH....+1

ELECTROLYSER....-8

WALKING TALKING....-12

One to punt - WARRINGAH, CHARLIE TOKYO

 

One to lay - REDESIGNATION

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

First a word of warning. If the rains alter the going from that described in the morning papers, don't bet, it's that simple. If it remains good ground then I'll play rated horses 1, 2, 3 and 5 dutched, 20/80's 1 and 5 with combo exotics the same four.

 

 

 

Race 2... YORK 4-20

CAPRICORN RUN....+23

RIVER FALCON....+13

HARRISON GEORGE....+12

SKHILLING SPIRIT....+3

VALERY BORZOV....+2

COMMANDO SCOTT....+/-0

One to punt - CAPRICORN RUN, RIVER FALCON

 

One to lay - EXCUSEZ MOI

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top three dutch, 20/80's the top three and combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 3... NEWBURY 4-35

IMPERIUM....+12

SINBAD THE SAILOR....-1

BEAU FIGHTER....-7

APOTHEOSIS....-11

LUNAR RIVER....-12

HUCKING HERO....-14

One to punt - IMPERIUM, SINBAD THE SAILOR

 

One to lay - MEGALALA

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

The most interesting horse is my third best so, 20/80 that one, dutch my top three and combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 4... NEWMARKET 3-35

HUSTLE....+3

BRASSINI....-6

CLASSIC DESCENT....-10

AUTUMN BLADES....-11

MOUNTAIN PRIDE....-16

DINGAAN....-19

One to punt - HUSTLE, BRASSINI

 

One to lay - SILAAH, PRAVDA STREET

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

My top rated was a lay last time up and we got him beaten as favourite. Today we play 20/80, go dutch my top four and use them for the combos.

 

 

 

Race 5... NEWMARKET 4-45

OLD ROMNEY....-19

MAGNITUDE....-23

ROSY ALEXANDER....-24

PAINT THE TOWN RED....-25

SUMMER WINDS....-30

INDY DRIVER....-37

One to punt - OLD ROMNEY, MAGNITUDE

 

One to lay - MADAM PRESIDENT, GAIA PRINCE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Horrible race. I'll not be parting with cash, here.

 

 

 

Race 6... NEWMARKET 5-20

HEAVEN....-2

CANADIAN DANEHILL....-4

DRAGON FLAME....-14

FIRST ORDER....-15

THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM....-15

ZOWINGTON....-15

One to punt - HEAVEN, CANADIAN DANEHILL

 

One to lay - FIGARO FLYER

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

20/80 my top pair, dutch my top four and combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 7... NEWCASTLE 7-20

ANNIBALE CARO....+9

TUFTON....+2

DESERT DESTINY....-3

HARRY THE HAWK....-9

WIND STAR....-13

SHY GLANCE....-16

One to punt - ANNIBALE CARO, TUFTON

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Comments:

20/80 my top one, straight win bet TUFTON, reverse exacta. WIND STAR for tricasts.

 

 

 

Race 8... NEWCASTLE 7-55

DECHIPER....+2

PIPER'S SONG....-12

CELTIC CHARISMA....-16

MIRJAN....-22

MERRION TIGER....-29

SPIDERS STAR....-35

One to punt - DECHIPER, PIPER'S SONG

 

One to lay - UNAWATUNA

 

Comments:

Straight win bet my top rated, 20/80 PIPER'S SONG, bring in MERRION TIGER for a dutch and combos.

 

 

 

Race 9... NEWCASTLE 8-25

HORATIO CARTER....+25

SIR XAAR....+18

GAME LAD....+4

DABBERS RIDGE....-4

BORASCO....-8

DAAWEITZA....-9

One to punt - HORATIO CARTER, SIR XAAR

 

One to lay - ETON RIFLES

 

Comments:

Straight win the top one, 20/80 my second best, reverse exacta.

 

 

 

Race 10... NEWCCASTLE 8-55

REVUE PRINCESS....+19

TOY TOP....+14

MISS DAAWE....+1

DARCY'S PRIDE....-3

WIBBADUNE....-4

TWOSHEETSTOTHEWIND....-6

One to punt - REVUE PRINCESS, TOY TOP

 

One to lay - MOLLY TWO, FEELIN FOXY, SPEEDY SENORITA

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 2 x 20/80's TOY TOP and MISS DAAWE, combo exotics, too.

 

 

 

Race 11... HAMILTON 8-35

BOGSIDE THEATRE....+8

AMANDA CARTER....+2

DRILL SERGEANT....-7

LADY JANE DIGBY....-8

ALLIED POWERS....-9

DUNASKIN....-17

One to punt - BOGSIDE THEATRE, AMANDA CARTER

 

One to lay - CAPE EXPRESS

 

Comments:

Top two 20/80, top four dutch and combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 12... HAMILTON 9-05

ROTHESAY DANCER....+23

GEORGE THE BEST....+9

ROCKETBALL....+8

JOYEAUX....+6

STRATHMORE....-5

SANDWITH....-6

One to punt - ROTHESAY DANCER, GEORGE THE BEST

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Comments:

My figures suggest we can punt only one horse here and I'll be on straight win. I'll also have a small 20/80 my second best and dutch rated horses 1, 2, 4 and 5 with combo exotics the same four.

Edited by manxman2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

todays.

 

Race 1... NEWBURY 3-45

NIGHTJAR....+24

AYE AYE DIGBY....+19

SUNDAE....+18

SPANISH BOUNTY....+13

MAIN AIM....+13

EXCALMATION....+13

One to punt - NIGHTJAR, AYE AYE DIGBY

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 2 x 20/80's the top pair and combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 2... NEWMARKET 2-20

ISPAHAN....+18

HABSHAN....+2

DUBAI DYNAMO....-9

ACE OF HEARTS....-11

RIGGINS....-13

THE FIFTH MEMBER....-18

One to punt - ISPAHAN, HABSHAN

 

One to lay - VIVA VETTORI

 

Comments:

20/80 ISPAHAN, dutch rated horses 1, 2, 3, 5 and combo exotics, too.

 

 

 

Race 3... NEWMARKET 3-30

VICTORIA MONTOYA....+3

RECORD BREAKER....-5

BOZ....-8

NEVE LIEVE....-19

YOUNG MICK....-22

PRESBYTERIAN NUN....-24

One to punt - VICTORIA MONTOYA, RECORD BREAKER

 

One to lay - MIGHTY MOON, SEVENNA

 

Comments:

20/80 my top one, dutch my top four and combos

 

 

 

Race 4... NEWMARKET 4-05

WITHOUT PREFUDICE....+19

FOLLY LODGE....+15

SADEEK....+2

EASTERN GIFT....+/-0

IDLE POWER....-9

AUTUMN BLADES....-10

One to punt - WITHOUT PREJUDICE, FOLLY LODGE

 

One to lay - SHADED EDGE

 

Comments:

2 X 20/80's the top pair, dutch the top four and combo exotics

 

 

 

Race 5... THIRSK 4-15

SPEED SONG....+17

OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY....+17

INDIAN TRAIL....+11

CORNUS....+8

MACHINIST....+6

CAPE VALE....-4

One to punt - SPEED SONG, OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY

 

One to lay - WYATT EARP

 

Comments:

Top pair 20/80, dutch my top four and again, combo exotics

 

 

 

Race 6... THIRSK 4-50

INTER VISION....+15

DESERT LORD....+9

HAAJES....+3

CAPTAIN DUNNE....-1

WI DUD....-4

KAY TWO....-13

One to punt - INTER VISION, DESERT LORD

 

One to lay - JACONET

 

Comments:

Top pair 20/80, dutch the top four and combo exotics

 

 

 

Race 7... THIRSK 5-25

MANDURAH....+19

GREEN PARK....+8

STEELCUT....+/-0

DIVINE SPIRIT....-3

DISCANTI....-4

GLASSHOUGHTON....-17

One to punt - MANDURAH, GREEN PARK

 

One to lay - RASAMAN

 

Comments:

20/80 my top one, dutch the top three and play those combos!

 

 

 

Race 8... DONCASTER 7-40

GOLDEN DIXIE....+23

ARTSU....+17

GIFT HORSE....+12

BO MCGINTY....-4

INGLEBY ARCH....-15

CARLETON....-18

One to punt - GOLDEN DIXIE, ARTSU

 

One to lay - HIGH CURRAGH, PICKERING, CHOSEN ONE

 

Comments:

I'll be having me a 20/80 GIFT HORSE, I'll look to dutch my top four and those combo exotics should pay a hamdsome dividend if we hit it so, they also have to be considered.

 

 

 

Race 9... DONCASTER 8-40

MAJOR MAGPIE....+17

MAGIC ECHO....+9

ESOTERICA....-5

APPLAUDE....-12

MOHEEBB....-16

WOVOKA....-17

One to punt - MAJOR MAGPIE, MAGIC ECHO

 

One to lay - COLLATERAL DAMAGE, LAST THREE MINUTES, BOY BLUE, LAST SOVEREIGN, PEGASUS LAD

 

Comments:

Dodds seesm to have a handle on this event, his two runners topping my figures. I prefer the top one simply because he's drawn s;lightly higher but both have a decent pitch and should be competitive. I'll have a brace of 20/80's, I'll bring in rated horses 4 and five for the dutch and the combo exotics.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was extremely pleased with how the Ratings performed yesterday. VICTORIA MONTOYA and RECORD BREAKER landed us a nice return in the Newmarket 3-30, a tasty 11/2 winner with a 28/1 exacta the cherry on top.

 

The only rated race at Newbury saw advice to punt both NIGHTJAR and AYE AYE DIGBY 20/80 prove spot on as they finished 2nd and 3rd @ 12/1 and 4/1 respectively.

 

Doncaster is a track I'm still getting a handle on but I was very happy with how my two rated races worked out last night. GIFT horse just failed to land our 20/80 in the 7-40, getting to within a neck of success and likewise MAGIC ECHO in the finale there. He finished fast and late, failing by just 1/2 a length to give us a 20/1 winning punt....the 80% place portion landed though so, we have to be grateful for that.

 

However, on the laying side of things we had a bonanza at Donny. It's unusual for me to suggest laying more than one horse per race but my figures suggested that we could stuck into to plenty there last night, no fewer than five having no chance of success, on my numbers, in that last race. Only four of them turned up but they included the front pair in the market and we got the job done.

 

After what was a wonderful Friday, REVUE PRINCESS winning for us @ 22/1, BEAU FIGHTER winning at 11/1, HUSTLE dead heating for first @ 13/2 and CANADIAN DANEHILL winning @ 9/2, we can safely say it has been a superb end to our week.

 

We are only midway through May and I promise you, you aint seen nuthin' yet!

 

Have a great day!

 

Race 1... RIPON 3-10

 

EXIT SMILING....+24

TOTO SKYLLACHY....+14

MANGHAM....+1

TANTO FAZ....+1

STEVIE THUNDER....-6

JEWELLED DAGGER....-8

 

One to punt - EXIT SMILING, TOTO SKYLLACHY

One to lay - TARTAN GIGHA

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Just the one meeting today and three races to play with. We've been having some seriously good results and I'm hopeful we'll cop for at least one result that pays for the day. Here I'm happy to dutch my top four and, with a high draw favoured, I'll have a straight win bet TANTO FAZ and a 20/80 TOTO SKYLLACHY. The combo exotics will pay a decent dividend if we can land it so, let's look at them, too.

 

Race 2... RIPON 3-40

 

ANGUS NEWZ....+27

WISE MELODY....+14

MISPHIRE....+11

ORIENTAL ROSE....-14

PRETTY BONNIE....-15

AUNT NICOLA....-20

 

One to punt - ANGUS NEWZ, WISE MELODY

One to lay - ARTISTIC LICENCE, CARCINETTO

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

My top rated horse has figured highly on my numbers since the season started and he keeps getting closer. Today everything fits like a glove and I'll be having a very decent 20/80 at this end. If I'm right and the front pair on the morning tissue are out with the washing them the combo exotics, top four, look well worth considering, especially as the fourth best is priced up around 50/1. I'd also be inclined to dutch my top three.

 

Race 3... RIPON 4-10

 

WIGWAM WILLIE....+4

ARCTIC CAPE....-9

JUST LILLE....-10

VEILED APPLAUSE....-17

GOODBYE MR BOND....-24

DEAR MAURICE....-29

 

One to punt - WIGWAM WILLIE, ARCTIC CAPE

One to lay - SIRVINO

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

I love JUST LILLE to death! She's a trier, will be included in my dutch (top four) and I'll play 20/80, too. My top rated will also have a 20/80 on his back with the combos well worth a look, given we might have that Barron trained favourite beaten.

 

Regards

 

The Post Racing Team

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

todays ratings..

 

Race 1... BATH 3-00

ROSE BOW....-13

SEEDLESS....-16

LITTLE CARMELA....-22

MAKE AMENDS....-29

BEAUTIFUL LADY....-30

ACT THREE....-34

One to punt - ROSE ROW, SEEDLESS

 

One to lay - SHY

 

Comments:

Not a race to over indulge in. Much will depend on how much rain falls and I knowfrom experience that when it rains in Bath, it rains! Straight win bet my top one, top two dutch and reverse exacta.

 

 

 

Race 2... BATH 3-30

ASK JENNY....+17

MUSIC BOX EXPRESS....+10

KYLLACHY STORM....+8

DIANE'S CHOICE....-2

BOLDINOR....-10

WHO'S WINNING....-10

One to punt - ASK JENNY, MUSIC BOX BOY

 

One to lay - TRIPLE DREAM

 

Comments:

I want a low/high draw here....rated horses 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 all fit the bill in that respect. Go 20/80 1 & 3, top four dutch and combos.

 

 

 

Race 3... BATH 4-00

MAYBE I WILL....+18

WAVERTREE WARRIOR....+5

MASTER MAHOGANY....-9

FANCY FOOTSTEPS....-14

APRIL FOOL....-14

FULL VICTORY....-16

One to punt - MAYBE I WILL, WAVERTREE WARRIOR

 

One to lay - TINELLO

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 2x20/80's MAYBE I WILL and WAVERTREE WARRIOR and the combo exotics

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Race 1... NOTTINGHAM 3-30

WHITCOMBE SPIRIT....-14

PIPER'S SONG....-17

TOBOGGAN LADY....-23

CALCULATING....-26

ART EXHIBITION....-29

CAOBA....-30

One to punt - WHITCOMBE SPIRIT, PIPER'S SONG

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

One of those races that nobody really has an opinion on but I'll have a 20/80 my second best, dutch my top four and tinker with the combos....very small stakes all round though.

 

 

 

Race 2... NOTTINGHAM 5-00

PRINCE GOLAN....+23

KILDARE SUN....+19

REGISTRAR....+18

INSIDE STORY....-5

WEST END LAD....-11

NAVENE....-11

One to punt - PRINCE GOLAN, KILDARE SUN

 

One to lay - RESENTFUL ANGEL

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top four dutch, 2 x 20/80's my top pair, combo exotics are well worth a look as the dividend would be worth collecting if we hit it.

 

 

 

Race 3... MUSSELBURGH 3-50

ANGARIC....+25

GRAND DIAMOND....+18

STELLITE....+14

SUMMER DANCER....+14

RED CAPE....+12

H HARRISON....+6

One to punt - ANGARIC, GRAND DIAMOND

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

My figures tie in nicely with the morning tissue and I'll have a pair of 20/80's my top pair, dutch rated horses 1, 2, 5 and 6 and play the combo exotics.

 

 

 

Race 4... MUSSELBURGH 4-50

NUSOOR....+21

SPIRIT OF CONISTON....+17

ALMOST MARRIED....-6

BRUT....-11

THUNDER BAY....-12

ANGELOFTHENORTH....-13

One to punt - NUSOOR, SPIRIT OF CONISTON

 

One to lay - DISTANT VISION

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

My top rated has a poor draw but will go on the good to fast and, if he can get to the front early doors, will have a chance at a big price. I'd prefer to be drawn middle to low, the preference middle, given the way this race will be run and so, I'll have a 20/80 THUNDER BAY and SPIRIT OF CONISTON. Top four dutch and combos, as usual, are worth considering.

 

 

 

Race 5... YARMOUTH 2-40

ELISIARIO....+16

MUDHISH....+3

GREY BOY....-5

APPLESNAP....-15

ELUSIVE HAWK....-16

MONAADEMA....-21

One to punt - ELISIARIO, MUDHISH

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Obviously my sixth best is open to plenty of improvement but his morning price is nuts. I'll have 20/80's rated horses 1 and 3, dutch my top three and play around with the exotics.

 

 

 

Race 6... YARMOUTH 4-10

DANCING JEST....+10

LE CORVEE....-6

KING OF CONNACHT....-8

CWM RHONDDA....-18

FANTASY RIDE....-25

ICEMAN GEORGE....-25

One to punt - DANCING JEST, LE CORVEE

 

One to lay - MAYBE I WONT

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

Top three dutch, 20/80 my top one and the combos again.

 

 

 

Race 7... YARMOUTH 4-40

FOURTH DIMENSION....-7

ROYAL PREMIER....-14

LADY PILOT....-16

FAITH AND REASON....-19

LADY HESTIA....-23

SPHERE....-27

One to punt - FOURTH DIMENSION, ROYAL PREMIER

 

One to lay - NONE

 

Archived - No

 

Comments:

If the Curley horse was "off" Queally would be riding....wouldn't he? Truth is you just never know with Barney and my fourth best has to be included in the dutch, just because he's spogged the race by running one in it! I'll have a top four dutch, play rated horses 1 and 4 20/80 with combo exotics on my mind when the time comes to bet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...