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"people's Choice"


Albert Tatlock
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You and your station can no longer be trusted on anything because you can't care less about right & wrong.

Disappointed by that - you aren't normally given to hyperbole. It was, at worst, a bad choice of headline. It overstated the margin expressed in the limited poll and arrived at an erroneous conclusion. Sometimes that happens - especially when the writer of the story is not responsbible for writing the headline and the headline writer's only interest is attracting readers.

There is an undercurrent running through this thread that someone at Manx Radio decided the headline in a bid to win favour with the incoming Chief Minister, and chose it regardless of the poll outcome. The reason for this was to ensure the next CM wouldn't threaten the subsidy Manx Radio receives.

That ignores the fact that, at the time of publishing, Steve Rodan was still a possibility, and other candidates could not be discounted. It also ignores the fact that Bell has not yet been elected CM. Karran could win. Neither could attract enough votes and a compromise candidate could come forward, like last time, and the Manx Radio's money-protecting gamble wouldn't have paid off - they would have backed the wrong horse.

It also ignores the fact that the Chief Minister alone cannot reduce the subvention paid to Manx Radio. It also overstates how important Mr Bell will consider this headline. Allan Bell isn't going to protect Manx Radio at the cost of other government services because it ran a positive headline based on badly interpreted statistics.

It also ignores the fact that there have been news reports on Manx Radio, and headlines, which members of government, including Mr Bell, have been furious about.

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According to IOMnewspaper website,Peter Karran is the "People's Choice",but it's a week to go,so the horse trading will go on,promises of greater glory if you vote for me,yes I will give you a ministers job,it dosn't matter that you have any knowledge of that department,look at the last Co-Min setup,we know that if Bell wins,we will have the same gang as Brown did,that's why the old Co-Min,or what's left of them will block vote for Bell,or just might spoil the first vote to give Alan a bit of a shock,just to get Karran out of the way,then maybe some other hopeful will step up.

The pity is,there is no public vote,we could then see what our MHKs are voting for,which could be against our wishes.

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I believe that our exit poll was exceptionally accurate after the 2006 election..

Good to see you not claiming that the 2011 exit polls were accurate. They were way out in so many cases.

 

So, simple question:- if the 2011 exit polls were way out, what conclusion do you draw from that on your 2011 exit poll question on the people's choice?

 

I'll give you a clue - "well...err...err" is not the right answer

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I believe that our exit poll was exceptionally accurate after the 2006 election..

Good to see you not claiming that the 2011 exit polls were accurate. They were way out in so many cases.

 

So, simple question:- if the 2011 exit polls were way out, what conclusion do you draw from that on your 2011 exit poll question on the people's choice?

 

I'll give you a clue - "well...err...err" is not the right answer

To be fair, the exit polls telling us who had probably won the seats were extremely successful - considering that exit polls are not normally expected to be 100% accurate.

As far as the question about a future CM was concerned, however, I found the question asked was extremely weighted to give advantage to Mr Bell.

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Declan - my memory is of something like Bell 29%, Rodan 23% - but maybe I hallucinated that too? I'm certain it was that kind of margin.

Stu were the results ever published?

 

I'm relying on the earlier survey for my comments.

 

I'm not accusing MR of bias, or being in a conspiracy to secure its funding, I just think it was poor inaccurate reporting - things I think are important!

 

The "People's Choice" report just says "Certainly, Manx Radio’s exit polls show one person has plenty of public support."

 

I've looked at the exit polls and can't see any information on choice for Chief Minister.

 

Was anyone asked to participate in the exit poll? Was such a question specifically asked?

 

Can someone link to the results? Or say what they are? What was the poll size?

 

I'd be interested, again I think it is poor reporting to just state Bell has "plenty of support" without justifying the statement.

 

This is meant to be a news report, not an opinion piece, but we aren't been given the results, just an editorialization of them.

Edited by Chinahand
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It would also be useful to see exactly how the questions were framed.

 

From what I recall it was something along the lines of 'Would you like the CM popularly elected?' If you were voting for a CM would you choose Mr Bell? Mr Karran? Mr Rodan or someone other than these?

 

That, if somewhere near correct, definitely 'weights' the question.

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Section 4.1 of the Broadcasting Programme Code (as revised 2004):

 

http://www.iomcc.im/...rogram_code.pdf

 

Although the MR CM Poll was carried out during the General Election, shouldn't they still be bound by the same Code even though it applies to Tynwald? It definitely ain't right to be making statements that could influence the outcome of another related election where the same people are involved.

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Blustery WIND goblins

 

Ten out of twelve owners said their cats preferred whiskers.

 

1000 Isle of Man people surveyed - of the 1000 whom expressed an opinion the majority expressed preference for Alan Bell - result - the people of the Isle of Man surveyed expressed a choice of Alan Bell to be Chief Minister - conclusion of survey - Alan Bell is peoples expressed choice which in turn leads to a wee report.

 

For what it is worth the chap with the alleged unusual voice will be Chief Minister.

 

Story ends life goes on.

 

Blustery WIND goblins are loved by all for their never ending comedic entertainment.

 

Ginny the witch loves to poach grouse.

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Tynwald Court probably considers itself above being influenced by the media.

 

Yes they probably do, self delusion is a wonderful thing. But do they consider they are above public opinion? I'll bet at some point Bell or his supporters will make the point that he's the "people's choice" during the election process.

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Chinahand - I must have made a grave error then -- my understanding is that Bell led both polls by a good margin. If he and Rodan were in a dead heat in our exit polls, I apologise and agree our headline was completely wrong. I shall go in, launch an internal inquiry and fire someone tomorrow. They'll laugh in my face and get my new catchphrase 'good result' into the conversation and tell me to piss off, but I'll make the point.

 

Hello again Stu. The point is that the only to gain your respect or agreement is to agree with everything you say. Ideal Chief Minister material

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Manxforums is a great way of having discussions with people I don't (and will probably never) know. My opinion is often changed by reading posts here, but similarly I feel entitled to air my own views...whether they're right or wrong. I certainly don't expect everyone to agree with me, but I reserve the right to robustly make a point if I feel I or my chums are being criticised unfairly.

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