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Cameron's Veto


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And market what, and to whom?

The UK has other major markets around the world and can build up economic ties with those parts of the world that will be more prosperous than Europe is going to be. The UK has long-standing relationships with the US, Latin America, China and India, for example. These can be built on. What can we market to them - the same stuff we market to the EU.

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The more disturbing of recent events is the way in which democratic government has been removed from Italy and Greece and will, under the Merkozy plan, be largely removed from the rest of Europe as Ge

A self-delusional analogy by Terry Smith IMO. But what else from the Torygraph?   The problem is, the UK is now so heavily reliant on the trade that it does with the EU, that a more appropriate anal

Germany only got all that money because all those other countries borrowed money to live the high life and gave a lot of it to Germany to buy German products.   If Germany doesn't bail them out, the

And market what, and to whom?

What can we market to them - the same stuff we market to the EU.

And market what, and to whom?

The UK has other major markets around the world and can build up economic ties with those parts of the world that will be more prosperous than Europe is going to be. The UK has long-standing relationships with the US, Latin America, China and India, for example. These can be built on. What can we market to them - the same stuff we market to the EU.

Don't you think that if there was already an existing major market gap equivalent to 40% of all UK exports, that the UK might already have been doing that?

 

How long would building up all these 'new markets' take? And what do you think unemployment will rise to in the UK if the UK left the EU?

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My immediate reaction was that Cameron is willing to sacrifice UK manufacturing on the altar of the City of London. IMO it shows the problems that come when an economy becomes over-reliant on one sector and vulnerable (or thinks it is vulnerable) to change.

 

The one positive might be that the UK Government will be keen to get inward monetary flows into the COL (or with Canary Wharf being 'or nearby') the COLON. This could possibly mean that they will be more positive towards the Dependencies as a further source of raising funds that end up in the COLON.

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Interesting relevant article by Terry Smith in the Torygraph today:

http://www.telegraph...e-disaster.html

I particularly liked this analogy:

"So all the UK is isolated from is an impending disaster: the eurozone will fragment with countries leaving and debt defaults. It is like being as isolated as a man who failed to get onto the Titanic before it sailed."

 

Britain is not in the Euro.

 

Silly Cameron tried to use a veto when the countries already in the Euro wanted to save their own currency. Maybe it was political manoeuvring but he got outsmarted.

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The thing is the euro is doomed unless major changers are taken place. And this is the first step to sorting that out.

 

What in effect the others have signed is given germany and france full control over the others, the tax they set etc etc. Germany is on course to take over the whole of the EU that it failed to do all them years ago. But this time its done it with out blood shed,

 

Camron was right not to sign up to it, because it gave the EU, or we should say germany the right to call the shots on what tax etc we set.

 

And u have to remember that we are the EUs main trading partner or at least in the top 3, the the EU needs our markets as much as we need theres.

Edited by G_Kelly
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I thought we were paying for a guy in Brussels to keep an eye on things that might affect us here on the island.

 

The UK like the IOM has too many eggs in one basket ie financial services

Do you ever here them talking about exports, British industries and the balance of payments these days?

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Yes trade figures are published, October just this last week, manufactured exports at an all time high, imports down, trade gap in visibles and invisibles lowest for years (£1.6 billion on month), Nearly but not quite in balance after the invisibles.

 

Over 50% of what we manufacture in the UK goes to the EU, with no barriers, the UK cannot afford to be outside, at best it would be back to EFTA, the poor club it set up in opposition to the EU, and which failed, and with that the UK and we would be bound by all the same EU rules for trading into the EU, but have no say at all.

 

The IOM still needs to be in the EU to sell its financial and other services to a market of 500 million, otherwise we are disadvantaged by comparison to Gibraltar. Cyprus, Malta, Luxembourg, Dublin, even London with its non resident tax breaks.

 

The Euro is another thing, only time will tell if it survives or not, it will be a long time in the saving, but a crash out and fall apart does not bear thinking about, for UK or IOM.

 

As for Germany taking over, well that is a democratic deficit and that needs to be resolved also by a more transparent open and democratically run Europe, but that involves transferring sovereignty from nation states, themselves a C19 and early C20 invention, to Europe, not to bureaucrats but to properly elected and represenative and answerable politicians in democratic institutions. It will be a slow process but with deeper economic and budgetary integration it will come.

 

Not sure what the difference is for Ireland, Greece or Italy, between being dictated to by Brussels, or by International Bankers, its either that or default and mess and dictatorship. Remember, the Argentine default did not solve their crisis long term, they are back in the shit again already, same with Weimar Germany, huge unsupportable debts (post Versailles reparations at end WW1), print money (read quantative easing), followed by scapegoating (Jews and International bankers) and the rise of the extreme right and the destruction of democracy . The only thing that will sort this is deeper union, or bankruptcy and mega inflation leadin to dictatorship. Deeper union looks sort of the most attractive when looked at in that light

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Well, the real test will be if some banks start rolling over in the next month or so. Banks like RBSI and some other famous names in the likes of France etc.

 

Personally, I see commonsense taking over - when markets see the precipice they could potentially create, and then stepping back from the edge, with a 'compromise solution'. Turkeys generally don't vote for xmas.

 

I can see Cameron back in Europe doing some kind of compromise deal, and coming back with some placated 'victory' (tail between his legs job). Otherwise, the alternative if he toes his current line is he's finished. If he does follow the current path, expect a Lib Dem/Labour coalition held up by 20 pro-european tories in 2013.

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If he does follow the current path, expect a Lib Dem/Labour coalition held up by 20 pro-european tories in 2013.

 

But there will probably be overwhelming support amongst much of the British electorate for anything which seems like standing up to Europe. Even without the public really caring about the detail or implications (all of which is unclear anyhow). If the coalition collapses now it might very well be replaced with a majority Conservative govt. Especially given how unpopular the Liberals are with many former supporters - typically in constituencies where Labour candidates have no chance.

 

Personally, I see commonsense taking over - when markets see the precipice they could potentially create, and then stepping back from the edge, with a 'compromise solution'.

 

The 'deal' reached on Friday morning may not convince the markets. Which have now had a weekend to absorb the implications: There is very little detail and the deal may well be perceived as putting things off - again. Also there is no certainty that the deal will definitely be ratified. Ireland, for example, may require another referendum.

 

ETA: the austerity measures which Germany wants to impose across Europe might also basically kill any possibility of economic growth, for years. It might actually be better for the Club Med countries to break away and reflate.

 

Also:

 

France may now be downgraded, says ratings agency

 

 

While share prices rose after the announcement, analysts expressed caution. "An all-mighty sell-off in the markets is brewing," said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy. "EU leaders have patently failed to deal with the issue that investors care most about: shoring up eurozone sovereign debt."

His view was supported by Werner Faymann, the Austrian Chancellor, in a newspaper interview yesterday. Chancellor Faymann said: "A firewall was created, but it is not strong enough or large enough to have a big deterrent effect on speculators and financial markets in the coming years. The decisions taken lack the necessary firepower to have a sustained effect."

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Yes trade figures are published, October just this last week, manufactured exports at an all time high, imports down, trade gap in visibles and invisibles lowest for years (£1.6 billion on month), Nearly but not quite in balance after the invisibles.

 

Over 50% of what we manufacture in the UK goes to the EU, with no barriers, the UK cannot afford to be outside, at best it would be back to EFTA, the poor club it set up in opposition to the EU, and which failed, and with that the UK and we would be bound by all the same EU rules for trading into the EU, but have no say at all.

 

The IOM still needs to be in the EU to sell its financial and other services to a market of 500 million, otherwise we are disadvantaged by comparison to Gibraltar. Cyprus, Malta, Luxembourg, Dublin, even London with its non resident tax breaks.

 

The Euro is another thing, only time will tell if it survives or not, it will be a long time in the saving, but a crash out and fall apart does not bear thinking about, for UK or IOM.

 

As for Germany taking over, well that is a democratic deficit and that needs to be resolved also by a more transparent open and democratically run Europe, but that involves transferring sovereignty from nation states, themselves a C19 and early C20 invention, to Europe, not to bureaucrats but to properly elected and represenative and answerable politicians in democratic institutions. It will be a slow process but with deeper economic and budgetary integration it will come.

 

Not sure what the difference is for Ireland, Greece or Italy, between being dictated to by Brussels, or by International Bankers, its either that or default and mess and dictatorship. Remember, the Argentine default did not solve their crisis long term, they are back in the shit again already, same with Weimar Germany, huge unsupportable debts (post Versailles reparations at end WW1), print money (read quantative easing), followed by scapegoating (Jews and International bankers) and the rise of the extreme right and the destruction of democracy . The only thing that will sort this is deeper union, or bankruptcy and mega inflation leadin to dictatorship. Deeper union looks sort of the most attractive when looked at in that light

 

Thanks for that information.

Edited by Moghrey Mie
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And market what, and to whom?

What can we market to them - the same stuff we market to the EU.

And market what, and to whom?

The UK has other major markets around the world and can build up economic ties with those parts of the world that will be more prosperous than Europe is going to be. The UK has long-standing relationships with the US, Latin America, China and India, for example. These can be built on. What can we market to them - the same stuff we market to the EU.

Don't you think that if there was already an existing major market gap equivalent to 40% of all UK exports, that the UK might already have been doing that?

 

How long would building up all these 'new markets' take? And what do you think unemployment will rise to in the UK if the UK left the EU?

Albert - I am not suggesting that we should actively seek to leave the EU. Just that Cameron was right to distance the UK from the Franco-German hegemony which will exist within the Euro Area. Perhaps we have become too dependent on EU trade and should have been giving more attention to elsewhere around the world and irrespective of whether or not we stay in the EU we should now be doing that anyway. Personally, I hope we stay within the EU but do not get embroiled in a political unification which is way ahead of its' time.

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I think he's (Cam) taken a very big gamble on this and it could go either/anyway in the end.

He was damned either way given the options currently available. The only possible / potential criticism would be over the way in which any negotiation was handled. Which is down to hearsay. And what Frances said about pulling the Conservatives out of the centre right alliance - it might have been better to stay on board (even if they just smiled appropriately and nodded politely whilst saying very little). What a pity he didn't have the option to avoid making a decision at all - a really bad cold or perhaps something he ate.

 

The UK vs EU is a big distraction. The interesting thing is that they have still not actually addressed the €zone crisis. The markets are going to wake up to that. Probably this week would be my guess. But perhaps not until after Xmas.

 

Interesting (and worrying) times all round

 

Also fascinating. And you never know with these things. Sometimes it turns out to be best thing ever - like when Britain got gambled out of the ERM. Seemed like a humiliating disaster but lead to the 90s boom.

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