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Population - Less Of Us Than There Used To Be?


woolley
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3 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Reviving this old topic on population because of something interesting I noticed when looking at how the elector figures for each constituency are made up.  Compared to 2016 the total electorate has increased by over 7% - from 59,963 to 64,230.  Given that the Isle of Man has a very wide franchise, this would imply a similar increase in the population in just five years.  The breakdown by constituency is also interesting:

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The biggest growth has been in the towns and the big jump in Douglas East is probably also explains the pressure we have seen on schools there.

It's possible that the increase reflects just that the registration process has become more efficient, but there's not been much of a difference that I can see and the quarterly totals suggest a more gradual process - this isn't a Covid effect.  The change from 2011 to 2016 reflects the same movement we saw in the differences between those two years Censuses - the electorate dropped by 0.7% was similar to the  small drop we saw in the population (1.4%).

The Island has seen similar jumps in population before - most recently in 1991, but it's still a surprise, given the discussions we have seen around people moving away due to Covid.  If the increase was driven by retirees as some have suggested, I would have expected to see the growth in other areas than the towns.

You’ll remember that there was a steep fall in 2006. I think they’re still clawing their way back. There has been a push this year. We should be aiming at 90-95%. 

Of course East Douglas is flat land, houses in multiple occupation, transient and always had low registration.

It'll be interesting to compare with census figures. And with the 72,484, 18 and over,  on the vaccination dashboard. After all 64,230 is 16+, so there’s an approx 10,000 difference.

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56 minutes ago, cissolt said:

I have serious doubts that the census is going to be anywhere near accurate.

Pretty sure that they haven't started checking on the people who haven't submitted there census forms yet but like you It will be interesting what the results show . Census was a bit of a mess tbh so be surprised if they get anything credible from it. Hope they do. But not optimistic . 

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1 hour ago, Numbnuts said:

Pretty sure that they haven't started checking on the people who haven't submitted there census forms yet but like you It will be interesting what the results show . Census was a bit of a mess tbh so be surprised if they get anything credible from it. Hope they do. But not optimistic . 

They only sent out the reminder letters last month, never mind trying to chase those up, check out which properties are empty (or rather were on 30 May three months before), check incorrectly filled forms and all the rest of it.  The whole thing has been disorganised from the start - I think they don't really like the Census because it actually forces them to confront the world as it is. 

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I have had two reminder letters, the second in the threatening tones of the TV licensing pricks. This is despite me completing my census. They sent me two to start with, with a small difference in the address. I had informed them of this by telephone, but still the letters come. 

It is a minor issue for me as an individual, but I would expect that kind of thing to be repeated across the Island and will no doubt become a major issue for them.

Remind me again, what exactly do they get right?

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16 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I have had two reminder letters, the second in the threatening tones of the TV licensing pricks. This is despite me completing my census. They sent me two to start with, with a small difference in the address. I had informed them of this by telephone, but still the letters come. 

It is a minor issue for me as an individual, but I would expect that kind of thing to be repeated across the Island and will no doubt become a major issue for them.

Remind me again, what exactly do they get right?

You need to ask?

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7 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

There are A LOT of eels in the rivers this year so maybe the defa river wildlife team are getting something right, I'm happy to offer that up. Struggling to think of much else though.

Voice of Reason will be along shortly to tell us how everything in the garden is rosy and Government is wonderful !! Never fear .

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At the rate we are building houses on green fields there must be thousands coming, and maybe that explains the long mooted passenger figures for travel at the airport something like 1.75 million per annum now ! Their forward projections are so perceptive.

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21 hours ago, John Wright said:

You’ll remember that there was a steep fall in 2006. I think they’re still clawing their way back. There has been a push this year. We should be aiming at 90-95%. 

Of course East Douglas is flat land, houses in multiple occupation, transient and always had low registration.

It'll be interesting to compare with census figures. And with the 72,484, 18 and over,  on the vaccination dashboard. After all 64,230 is 16+, so there’s an approx 10,000 difference.

I'm sure that even they could manage to recover from the disaster that was 2006 in ten years - or at least to the same level, whether it is accurate or not is another issue[1].   I deliberately compared election years because as you say, there tends to be more of an effort made with registration then (and also by voters), but the rise looks fairly steady over the intervening period.  The 2021 figures are only for April rather than election day and I would expect even more increase on those by 22 September as more people register.

I was surprised by the increase in Douglas East for the very reason you state, these are the people least likely to be on - UK research always shows those in private rented properties are less likely to be registered.  It's possible that such people may prefer to use online apps rather than by post - though again the options been there for some time - but there may also be more use of previously empty or holiday-use accommodation for more people on the Island.

Quarterly figures are only available since January 2017 and they vary across the year.  But while there was a big jump this Spring, there was an even bigger one in Spring 2019.  How they will relate to the Census is another matter - and of course the Census also includes under 16s and shorter-term residents.  But I'd be surprised not to see a similar jump in urban areas.

 

[1]  For example the forms don't explain well that you should register those who will reach 16 in the next year as well as those who already have and there seems no way to include someone who will qualify for residency (but not yet) either.

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10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

 

I was surprised by the increase in Douglas East for the very reason you state, these are the people least likely to be on - UK research always shows those in private rented properties are less likely to be registered.  It's possible that such people may prefer to use online apps rather than by post - though again the options been there for some time - but there may also be more use of previously empty or holiday-use accommodation for more people on the Island.

 

I think there's been a fairly strong effort to get people registered there by MLP, not just for this election but the corpy ones too.

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28 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I think there's been a fairly strong effort to get people registered there by MLP, not just for this election but the corpy ones too.

That must have helped (and helped get them votes), but the pattern is similar over several years including before they started to get so active.

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26 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

That must have helped (and helped get them votes), but the pattern is similar over several years including before they started to get so active.

I know that Joney Faragher asks people to get registered when visiting even if they weren't going to vote for her. It's a good tactic and one that I wish her well with.

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Had the census people around my area yesterday . Asked the woman how it was going . Apparently the calling around has already been delayed twice and going on the sheets of paper she had and her confimation theres lots of people who havent submitted the census form. She had three propeties in my street ,multipe occupancy , that she believed were empty. There not ! In all I reckon theres at least 15 people in residence that there is no record of. I know quite a few are on benefits  etc and mentioned that and was told government departments don't speak to each other apparently. Street is maybe 16 terraced properties in Douglas East . If that sort of return is shown over all of lower Douglas the census is going to be a long way out .   

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