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Brexit Is Reversible...

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On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 10:28 AM, wrighty said:

Brexit predictions:

1. The vote on 11th December will go against May’s plan

2. May resigns

3. Boris comes in as leader, promising 2nd referendum

4. Referendum votes against Brexit, article 50 revoked, UK stays in the EU

5. Massive boost to UK economy on back of this

6. Boris calls general election to secure his own mandate, and secures a landslide victory on the back of point 5. 

 

Which was Boris’ plan all along. He never wanted Brexit, it was all part of his scheme to achieve world domination. 

You read it here first. 

Just a little boost for my prediction from 6 months ago.  So it took 3 goes, but I was right on points 1 and 2.  Point 3 will happen, although no second referendum yet.  That will come though, when labour start pushing for it and Boris realises he can't negotiate a deal to satisfy parliament and that his own MPs will rather bring down the government and have an election than a no-deal exit.  He'll agree to the referendum, and points 4-6 will follow.

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44 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Just a little boost for my prediction from 6 months ago.  So it took 3 goes, but I was right on points 1 and 2.  Point 3 will happen, although no second referendum yet.  That will come though, when labour start pushing for it and Boris realises he can't negotiate a deal to satisfy parliament and that his own MPs will rather bring down the government and have an election than a no-deal exit.  He'll agree to the referendum, and points 4-6 will follow.

Where would a Tory landslide victory come about if the Brexiteers, feeling betrayed, abandon the party for Farage? Remainers grateful to Boris?

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1 hour ago, Declan said:

Where would a Tory landslide victory come about if the Brexiteers, feeling betrayed, abandon the party for Farage? Remainers grateful to Boris?

I think the whole idea of Brexit will be dead and buried once a second referendum rejects it, and people vote with their pockets.  If in a couple of years there is economic prosperity on the back of remain, led by a gurning Boris, Farage's group will be little more than a pressure group rather than a significant force at the polls.

Or, perhaps Farage will be the next PM (after Boris).  Stranger things happen in politics these days.

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Posted (edited)

I agree with Declan on this point.

Unless the result of the second referendum (and we are far from guaranteed that will happen at this stage) is resoundingly (70% plus) in favour of remaining in the EU then Farage and the Brexit Party will not go away.  The Tory party will continue to haemorrhage support to the Brexit party with a small percentage of others choosing alternative parties such as the Greens and Lib Dems instead (probably those that would have traditionally voted Labour when fed up of the Tory Party).   

BoJo will not want to preside over the death of the Tory party any more that the Maybot did but the reality is that they are in real danger of imploding.  

I don't think either the Tories or even Labour will want a general election at the moment considering how they suffered in the local elections.  

Edited by manxman1980

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3 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

I agree with Declan on this point.

Unless the result of the second referendum (and we are far from guaranteed that will happen at this stage) is resoundingly (70% plus) in favour of remaining in the EU then Farage and the Brexit Party will not go away.  The Tory party will continue to haemorrhage support to the Brexit party with a small percentage of others choosing alternative parties such as the Greens and Lib Dems instead (probably those that would have traditionally voted Labour when fed up of the Tory Party).   

BoJo will not want to preside over the death of the Tory party any more that the Maybot did but the reality is that they are in real danger of imploding.  

I don't think either the Tories or even Labour will want a general election at the moment considering how they suffered in the local elections.  

Agree almost totally with this, but I would add that the Labour Party is in equally perilous mortal danger. We could be in for a reset of the political divides similar to those of a century ago.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, wrighty said:

Just a little boost for my prediction from 6 months ago.  So it took 3 goes, but I was right on points 1 and 2.  Point 3 will happen, although no second referendum yet.  That will come though, when labour start pushing for it and Boris realises he can't negotiate a deal to satisfy parliament and that his own MPs will rather bring down the government and have an election than a no-deal exit.  He'll agree to the referendum, and points 4-6 will follow.

I can see why you would say this, but I think that Brexit is not such a "vote with your wallet" issue as you are assuming for similar reasons as expounded by manxman1980.

To be frank, I do not believe that BoJo gives a toss about the Tory Party or Brexit, or indeed anything other than BoJo. He is not even a Brexiteer with any conviction. It is not forgotten how he spent a weekend deciding which side of the referendum campaign to support and this was not because he was wrestling with his conscience about what it would mean for the prospects of the country. Someone in his position would surely have held a fixed view for a long time. He blows with the wind and it was all about which course would facilitate the greater glory of himself, and I reckon that this is why Gove knifed him at the last leadership charade before May's coronation. He realised finally that Johnson is a waste of space.

So I would not be at all surprised if he does indeed flip to another referendum. If he does that, though, and it goes for remain then the Tories will be toast at the subsequent election. No landslide. Then absolutely anything could happen. BoJo won't care. He'll be atop the next woman and writing his extremely lucrative memoirs.

 

Edited by woolley

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