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Applebys: Something or other about planes and VAT. CM says Panic!

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11 hours ago, Lxxx said:

I think you're going a little overboard on this one. The people of Europe have much more hatred of their elected politicians and unelected in Brussels than other countries now. A lot of your rhetoric is just that, historic.

Fair challenge - can I rephrase it to -

Strangely, I think that you are probably wrong.  In my work, I would say that the UK as an EU member state protects us.  Brexit releases the historic hatred that the EU officials from France, Germany and Italy have for us unfettered, and we could find ourselves blacklisted pdq.

PS - I think that they can blacklist separately from the UK.

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12 hours ago, Boo Gay'n said:

Fair challenge - can I rephrase it to -

Strangely, I think that you are probably wrong.  In my work, I would say that the UK as an EU member state protects us.  Brexit releases the historic hatred that the EU officials from France, Germany and Italy have for us unfettered, and we could find ourselves blacklisted pdq.

PS - I think that they can blacklist separately from the UK.

Agreed. To an extent. Until it comes to the point that it hurts industries in those countries to lose a huge market for their products. Blacklisting the UK will severely affect the powerful German car industry for example. There will be thousands of other industries that will feel the same. The EU can't even attempt to try it, it's on it's arse as it is.

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Indeed. As I have said for years nobody wants to lose business. It is in nobody's interest. All of the histrionics about "we won't be able to trade" after Brexit is just so much blarney by the usual suspects to frustrate the process. As you say, the EU is on its arse. People on here and elsewhere would have us believe that the EU is some sort of omnipotent irresistible force. It's a facile view they take and very boring when repeated hour by hour to drive the agenda home. Could the bloc blacklist the Island and similar jurisdictions? Perhaps. It depends how they view their own interests.

At the same time, if these entities are indeed supporting profit base shifting tax evasion offshore then I wouldn't advocate that at all. Solving that issue is in the gift of onshore jurisdictions anyway. They should get their own legislation in order.

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Did you know that the EU is some sort of omnipotent irresistable force?

Didn't think so....

According to the Barclay Brothers Telegraph the EU is also run by Evil Goblins intent on world domination.

I bet you didn't know that either....

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6 hours ago, Lxxx said:

Agreed. To an extent. Until it comes to the point that it hurts industries in those countries to lose a huge market for their products. Blacklisting the UK will severely affect the powerful German car industry for example. There will be thousands of other industries that will feel the same. The EU can't even attempt to try it, it's on it's arse as it is.

I'm sorry but we've been hearing this sort of stuff from the advocates of Brexit for at least three years now, and it simply hasn't turned out to be true.  We kept on being told that the EU would have to give the UK a really good deal for these sort of reasons, and either that hasn't happened or you'll have to explain to us why the vast majority of Brexit supporters are unhappy with the deal they do have.

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

I'm sorry but we've been hearing this sort of stuff from the advocates of Brexit for at least three years now, and it simply hasn't turned out to be true.  We kept on being told that the EU would have to give the UK a really good deal for these sort of reasons, and either that hasn't happened or you'll have to explain to us why the vast majority of Brexit supporters are unhappy with the deal they do have.

I can't answer that either, Roger. I rather doubt that many of them have read the deal. I have and I can't see a lot wrong with it to be frank considering that the Remainers who have negotiated it weren't exactly ambitious in their aims. They treated it as a damage limitation exercise rather than a huge opportunity. However, it is fair, workable and it achieves the central aim of leaving the EU. Yes, it keeps us very close to the EU in some respects but it also allows a great deal of room for independent action, and there is the 48% who voted the other way to consider. Remember also that this is only the Withdrawal Agreement. The future relationship comes later. If Brexiteers do not support what is on the table they are likely to get no Brexit at all. Absolutely crazy. We will not get another chance to duck out of the EU until the whole edifice collapses with all of the upheaval that will entail.

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The UK have played the wrong hand.

The EU has very little to look forward to after next year, Brexit aside. I've just read that French banks own Italian debt to the value of 12% of French GDP.  When, not if, Italy defaults the consequences do not bear thinking about. But the jury is out on whether it will happen before or after Greece go to Brussels with their begging bowl. The Germans will, as usual, pick up the tab. But for how long? Frau Merkel is soon to depart, what then?

Meanwhile EUR QE will continue into 2019 and probably into 2020 by all accounts. The ECB has no way of unwinding that situation.

So it's not all one way.

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36 minutes ago, woolley said:

 We will not get another chance to duck out of the EU until the whole edifice collapses with all of the upheaval that will entail.

Been about to happen imminintly since oh, about 2011 according to a number of MF posters.  I'm glad I wasn't holding my breath!

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6 minutes ago, Bobbie Bobster said:

Been about to happen imminintly since oh, about 2011 according to a number of MF posters.  I'm glad I wasn't holding my breath!

Not imminently. See Andy Onchan post above. I view the long term where politicians don't look past the ends of their noses. Some things are structured with an inevitability of failure if you look deeply enough at what is going on.

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17 hours ago, woolley said:

Not imminently. See Andy Onchan post above. I view the long term where politicians don't look past the ends of their noses. Some things are structured with an inevitability of failure if you look deeply enough at what is going on.

The issue with EU is that no two members' economies are the same, GDP varies substantially and not just by a few percentage points, it's massive in monetary terms.

The 19 Member States that form the euro area, their cumulative GDP stood at €10,700bln in 2016, meaning that they accounted all together for 72.5% of the EU GDP. Germany (29.2%) and France (20.7%) made up half of the euro area GDP. That says it all.

There will come a time when those member states who are literally holding the Union together economically will say, enough is enough. Germany has already said that to Greece. Has said it to Portugal, Spain and a couple of other the former Soviet block countries. Merkel's successor might not be quite so benevolent or patient in waiting for those economies lagging behind to get their arse into gear. The consequence of the disparity of economic performance in the Union is that QE will continue, despite Draghi's wish to end it. 

Add Brexit to the list of woes and you soon understand why the EU are not keen to see us leave. They need UK dosh.  

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2 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

T

Add Brexit to the list of woes and you soon understand why the EU are not keen to see us leave. They need UK dosh.  

well the UK needs UK dosh first,  fuck the rest till your own house is in order.

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On 12/8/2018 at 12:01 PM, Andy Onchan said:

The 19 Member States that form the euro area, their cumulative GDP stood at €10,700bln in 2016, meaning that they accounted all together for 72.5% of the EU GDP. Germany (29.2%) and France (20.7%) made up half of the euro area GDP. That says it all.

There will come a time when those member states who are literally holding the Union together economically will say, enough is enough.

It’s probably getting close to that time now to be honest. 

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