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TT 2019 - Megathread


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2 hours ago, wrighty said:

 

 

 

Allow me to clarify.

All medical interventions have a risk of unintended complications.  We can often quote rates of specific complications, for example a 1 in 200 risk of infection in a joint replacement.  Patients accept this, we do our best to mitigate the risk, but it can't be eliminated.  So on occasion we all get patients who suffer complications and may end up worse off, in some respects, than they were prior to their intervention.  If that happens, that (small) group of patients will often say that 'had I know it'd be like this I'd never have gone ahead'.

A complication, or a risk, is purely theoretical until it happens to you.  And then it's no consolation that the next 199 joint replacements, on average, won't get an infection.

Linking back to the TT, I heard a figure - not sure how accurate it is - that there is one death per 600 laps.  So riders may know that, but think that it's pretty good odds.  If it does turn out to be them though, the 599 laps with no fatal ending is no consolation to them or their family I suspect.

The difference is you are only going to have one joint replacement. So 1 in 200 is pretty good odds.

But a rider is aiming to do more than one lap. So if the race is 6 laps the odds drops to 1 in 100. And if there's 50 riders in the race, there's a 50% chance that someone will die.

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Is that Laurence Skelly asking? 

I believe that after the success of the horse tram 2019 launch the DoI is taking over TT2020 and running races only from the Grandstand to the bottom of Bray Hill and back again. Lap records will be b

Given the years they pussyfooted around Manx Gas rip offs, with carpet slippers on. But a shop selling T shirts and it's on with the jackboots. This Island is administered by complete noshers.

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7 minutes ago, Declan said:

The difference is you are only going to have one joint replacement. So 1 in 200 is pretty good odds.

But a rider is aiming to do more than one lap. So if the race is 6 laps the odds drops to 1 in 100. And if there's 50 riders in the race, there's a 50% chance that someone will die.

I think the 1 death per 600 laps is a  good way out really? There have been many six lap races with 100 or so starters in the past, now it’s about 70 starters. There will be a statistic which is worth analysis though.

 

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I think the Isle of Man should scrap the TT races and have a Worlds Fluffiest Kitten competition. There would of course be a special category for the Manx (tailless) breed. And that.

I think it would be fun and would nicely reinvent the Island.

 

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1 hour ago, gettafa said:

I think the Isle of Man should scrap the TT races and have a Worlds Fluffiest Kitten competition. There would of course be a special category for the Manx (tailless) breed. And that.

I think it would be fun and would nicely reinvent the Island.

 

They would have to be de-clawed first. Think of the risk

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3 hours ago, Declan said:

The difference is you are only going to have one joint replacement. So 1 in 200 is pretty good odds.

But a rider is aiming to do more than one lap. So if the race is 6 laps the odds drops to 1 in 100. And if there's 50 riders in the race, there's a 50% chance that someone will die.

Not sure that you have a clue about odds creature but I will accept your wagers all day long.I have never read so much nonsense and unlike you I am a real professional that can make gambling pay.You anonymous halfwit probably on £20k a year that can still bet with the likes of nobet£365 Paddy Punter and Ladstrokes.If you can still bet with them you are a loser.Basically if they will lay you they will slay you.Prick.

 

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3 hours ago, Max Power said:

I think the 1 death per 600 laps is a  good way out really? There have been many six lap races with 100 or so starters in the past, now it’s about 70 starters. There will be a statistic which is worth analysis though.

 

So, in a full festival, with qualifying and the races, and no disruption, curtailment or cancellation, how many laps over a fortnight? It’s got to approach 10-12,000. Then add MGP.

There have been what, 100 actual racing years, not all with as many competitors, laps, races, practices, and, between TT and MGP, fewer than 300 racing deaths.

I reckon that brings deaths to 1 every 5,000 or 6,000 laps.

Very rule of thumb, rec’o’th’ee, stick finger in air, guesstimate, but the 1:600 is way out.

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So someone killed on the Sloc. This is where they’re getting there thrills now. No police, road like a billiard table, it’s crazy up there at times, then you have the ‘scrambler’ bikes up there too destroying the countryside.

this is the TT bonanza, come on over and we’ll send you home in a body bag. Roll up, roll up.

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How is someone killed on the sloc have anything to do with racing ?   Unfortunately people get killed on the Manx roads all the year around.    FFSake you will be blaming Brexit next.

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8 minutes ago, hissingsid said:

How is someone killed on the sloc have anything to do with racing ?   Unfortunately people get killed on the Manx roads all the year around.    FFSake you will be blaming Brexit next.

Just mention Everest...

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Deaths in the TT, or indeed, any circumstance, are  1 : 1.

Avoidable deaths are not acceptable in any ratio, it is callous to try to justify them by numbers!

 

" The Fallen " is the term used to describe those soldiers killed in a war. Is it not a little demeaning to them to use the term for TT deaths?

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4 hours ago, Mr Helmut Fromage said:

It's Marks & Spencer's door ways that carry the huge risk - every week there's an Ambulance there scooping up another fallen Pensionner.

Has to be at least 1 a month at that death trap.....

I’m sure that’s why they put those chairs there so they can sit and wait for the ambulance to arrive. 

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57 minutes ago, SJR said:

Not sure that you have a clue about odds creature but I will accept your wagers all day long.I have never read so much nonsense and unlike you I am a real professional that can make gambling pay.You anonymous halfwit probably on £20k a year that can still bet with the likes of nobet£365 Paddy Punter and Ladstrokes.If you can still bet with them you are a loser.Basically if they will lay you they will slay you.Prick.

 

I wasn’t running a book, I was extrapolating the risk from the figure wrighty supplied. 

As you’ve been told before I don’t work for an online gambling firm. In fact, I’ve never placed an online bet. 

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