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TT 2019 - Megathread

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On the radio yesterday someone came up with the number of laps completed. It's an interesting statistic. A more definite statistic would be the average number of deaths each year and the number of riders competing. I suppose it boils down to the same thing, but aye, they know the risks.

I couldn't climb the apocryphal Mount Everest. Mainly because I don't like being cold- it's -16C today up there, these Isle of Man winters are plenty cold enough for me. And I don't like carrying stuff and I have a jippy back anyway. And I don't think I could do that skydiving thing because I am frightened of the height going up a step ladder.

I don't understand why so many people do these things but they do and they know the risks. It all comes down to the cotton wool scenario. And fucking bowls (which I only played once and got beat severely).

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8 hours ago, RIchard Britten said:

Briefly popping back...

Derek, as some one who has served in the Police, I expected better from you than this (especially your work in accident investigation).

It is not "one" though, is it?  If he had been the first fatality in the "sport" or they happened so infrequently that the event of someone dying were seen as a freak occurrence, I would be more inclined to agree, but people die during the TT like "bloody" clock work.

There is a world of difference between "knowing the risks" and "knowing the risks".

You can read about skydiving until your last days, being aware of all the various ways things can go wrong and how you would in theory you end up splattered all over creation, but that is not the same as hurtling towards the ground at 120+mph screaming and shitting yourself.

The wife might well have idea of what it will be like to be a widow, but the family are going to spend the rest of their lives getting over this tragedy.  I am willing to bet every single spouse who watches their partner disappear off the start line are crossing everything they have saying "please, let them finish alive and whole" but in all the bravdo and excitement before that there is also a lot of "it wont happen to mine".

Know better about what?

I’ve investigated racing fatalities as well as road deaths. Everyone involved in the former knows full well this is the last of the great, gladiatorial challenges, and that the painful field may take them. And there is no doubt that although the event is reaching a sweet spot in terms of machine performance, rider ability and track format, it is safer than it was even a dozen years ago.

It doesn’t mean that the fallen rider is any less loved than another taken from their family, but the circumstances are somewhat different from the generally unforeseen nature of road traffic collisions that result in life changing injuries or death. 

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2 hours ago, wrighty said:

 

 

 

Allow me to clarify.

All medical interventions have a risk of unintended complications.  We can often quote rates of specific complications, for example a 1 in 200 risk of infection in a joint replacement.  Patients accept this, we do our best to mitigate the risk, but it can't be eliminated.  So on occasion we all get patients who suffer complications and may end up worse off, in some respects, than they were prior to their intervention.  If that happens, that (small) group of patients will often say that 'had I know it'd be like this I'd never have gone ahead'.

A complication, or a risk, is purely theoretical until it happens to you.  And then it's no consolation that the next 199 joint replacements, on average, won't get an infection.

Linking back to the TT, I heard a figure - not sure how accurate it is - that there is one death per 600 laps.  So riders may know that, but think that it's pretty good odds.  If it does turn out to be them though, the 599 laps with no fatal ending is no consolation to them or their family I suspect.

The thing is with surgery you are electing to improve a situation, and working in one of the most highly regulated and professional areas there is. There is always the unforeseen of course, but the checks, re-checks, explanations and monitoring all contribute to those risks being minimised. The difference with the TT is they do it because they want to. I didn’t want to have a hip replacement; I had it because it bloody hurt! 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, gettafa said:

 

I don't understand why so many people do these things but they do and they know the risks. It all comes down to the cotton wool scenario. And fucking bowls (which I only played once and got beat severely).

It's Marks & Spencer's door ways that carry the huge risk - every week there's an Ambulance there scooping up another fallen Pensionner.

Has to be at least 1 a month at that death trap.....

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2 hours ago, wrighty said:

 

 

 

Allow me to clarify.

All medical interventions have a risk of unintended complications.  We can often quote rates of specific complications, for example a 1 in 200 risk of infection in a joint replacement.  Patients accept this, we do our best to mitigate the risk, but it can't be eliminated.  So on occasion we all get patients who suffer complications and may end up worse off, in some respects, than they were prior to their intervention.  If that happens, that (small) group of patients will often say that 'had I know it'd be like this I'd never have gone ahead'.

A complication, or a risk, is purely theoretical until it happens to you.  And then it's no consolation that the next 199 joint replacements, on average, won't get an infection.

Linking back to the TT, I heard a figure - not sure how accurate it is - that there is one death per 600 laps.  So riders may know that, but think that it's pretty good odds.  If it does turn out to be them though, the 599 laps with no fatal ending is no consolation to them or their family I suspect.

The difference is you are only going to have one joint replacement. So 1 in 200 is pretty good odds.

But a rider is aiming to do more than one lap. So if the race is 6 laps the odds drops to 1 in 100. And if there's 50 riders in the race, there's a 50% chance that someone will die.

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21 hours ago, fatshaft said:

I assume I'm being nosey, but who are you? If you're a former TTer who had a big one, Milky? 

Not as good as Milky but a bigger accident unfortunately.

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7 minutes ago, Declan said:

The difference is you are only going to have one joint replacement. So 1 in 200 is pretty good odds.

But a rider is aiming to do more than one lap. So if the race is 6 laps the odds drops to 1 in 100. And if there's 50 riders in the race, there's a 50% chance that someone will die.

I think the 1 death per 600 laps is a  good way out really? There have been many six lap races with 100 or so starters in the past, now it’s about 70 starters. There will be a statistic which is worth analysis though.

 

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I think the Isle of Man should scrap the TT races and have a Worlds Fluffiest Kitten competition. There would of course be a special category for the Manx (tailless) breed. And that.

I think it would be fun and would nicely reinvent the Island.

 

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1 hour ago, gettafa said:

I think the Isle of Man should scrap the TT races and have a Worlds Fluffiest Kitten competition. There would of course be a special category for the Manx (tailless) breed. And that.

I think it would be fun and would nicely reinvent the Island.

 

They would have to be de-clawed first. Think of the risk

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Declan said:

The difference is you are only going to have one joint replacement. So 1 in 200 is pretty good odds.

But a rider is aiming to do more than one lap. So if the race is 6 laps the odds drops to 1 in 100. And if there's 50 riders in the race, there's a 50% chance that someone will die.

Not sure that you have a clue about odds creature but I will accept your wagers all day long.I have never read so much nonsense and unlike you I am a real professional that can make gambling pay.You anonymous halfwit probably on £20k a year that can still bet with the likes of nobet£365 Paddy Punter and Ladstrokes.If you can still bet with them you are a loser.Basically if they will lay you they will slay you.Prick.

 

Edited by SJR
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4 minutes ago, SJR said:

unlike you I am a real problem gambler that can't make gambling pay.

 

Fixed. 

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3 hours ago, Max Power said:

I think the 1 death per 600 laps is a  good way out really? There have been many six lap races with 100 or so starters in the past, now it’s about 70 starters. There will be a statistic which is worth analysis though.

 

So, in a full festival, with qualifying and the races, and no disruption, curtailment or cancellation, how many laps over a fortnight? It’s got to approach 10-12,000. Then add MGP.

There have been what, 100 actual racing years, not all with as many competitors, laps, races, practices, and, between TT and MGP, fewer than 300 racing deaths.

I reckon that brings deaths to 1 every 5,000 or 6,000 laps.

Very rule of thumb, rec’o’th’ee, stick finger in air, guesstimate, but the 1:600 is way out.

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So someone killed on the Sloc. This is where they’re getting there thrills now. No police, road like a billiard table, it’s crazy up there at times, then you have the ‘scrambler’ bikes up there too destroying the countryside.

this is the TT bonanza, come on over and we’ll send you home in a body bag. Roll up, roll up.

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Posted (edited)

How is someone killed on the sloc have anything to do with racing ?   Unfortunately people get killed on the Manx roads all the year around.    FFSake you will be blaming Brexit next.

Edited by hissingsid
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8 minutes ago, hissingsid said:

How is someone killed on the sloc have anything to do with racing ?   Unfortunately people get killed on the Manx roads all the year around.    FFSake you will be blaming Brexit next.

Just mention Everest...

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