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When is the next general election ?

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1 hour ago, Donald Trumps said:

Hope Paul Craine does stand again

Yep Methodist preachers for the win! 

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20 hours ago, Uhtred said:

September 2021; as many as possible; as few as possible. (Actually, Allinson will stay as he will be the next CM).

Here are a few predictions:

 

Alfred Cannan as Chief Minister.

Chris Thomas as Treasury Minister.

David Ashcroft will become Minister for Policy and Reform.

Rob Callister will come back like a turd that won't flush.

Julie Edge will be ousted.

Kate Beecroft presumably will not run again.

Alex Allinson will remain. Probably becoming a minister, maybe Health.

Ralph Peake will be ousted.

Daphne Caine will remain and become a minister, maybe DEFA.

Geoffrey Boot will be ousted.

 

New MHKs:

McGuiness will probably become Ramsey MHK.

Newton (Green party) will become an MHK.

Faragher (Labour) will become an MHK.

 

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Kopek said:

However, if Kate had allowed a two way fight, we may have had Cannan as a one term CM., giving even the most forelock tiugging MHks time to see what he was really like, a neo facist anti socialist anti working class, under class? let them eat cake type of leader???

What you're saying is complete bollocks of course.

In reality, Cannan has presided over very progressive, worker-friendly tax and budgetary reforms. The working class are paying less tax and receiving more in the way of spending/funding aimed at helping working families. How you think this is "anti working class" is beyond me.

Edited by Rushen Spy

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2 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

Prove it

I'd have to sit down and do all the calculations yet again. Maybe tomorrow as I can't be arsed right now.

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You're a complete fraud TJ

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15 hours ago, woolley said:
Just my own unscientific guess based on perfromance and perceived constituency support. Obviously it all depends a great deal on who stands against them:

Arbory, Castletown and Malew

Hon Graham Derek CREGEEN Esq MHK    OUT

Jason Robert MOORHOUSE MHK   OUT

Ayre and Michael

Timothy Simon BAKER MHK  OUT

Hon Alfred Louis CANNAN Esq MHK IN

Douglas Central

Catherine Ann CORLETT MHK  OUT (fair personal following last time but for what?)

Hon Christopher Charles THOMAS Esq MHK IN

Douglas East

Clare Louise BETTISON MHK  OUT

Christopher Roy ROBERTSHAW Esq MHK Deputy Speaker of the House of Keys  OUT 

Douglas North

Hon David John ASHFORD MHK  IN

George Ralph PEAKE Esq MHK  OUT

Douglas South

Kathleen Joan BEECROFT MHK  OUT

Hon William Mackay MALARKEY Esq MHK  OUT

Garff

Daphne Hilary Penelope CAINE MHK   OUT

Martyn John PERKINS MHK  IN

Glenfaba and Peel

Hon Geoffrey George BOOT Esq MHK  OUT

Hon Ray Karl HARMER Esq MHK  IN

Middle

Hon Robert Howard QUAYLE Esq MHK  IN    (Close run thing if Paul Craine stands again. Craine would be an asset.)

William Catto SHIMMINS MHK IN

Onchan

Rob Edward CALLISTER MHK  IN   (For services to literature if nothing else).

Julie Marie EDGE MHK OUT

Ramsey

Alexander John ALLINSON MHK  IN

Lawrie Lee HOOPER MHK OUT

Rushen

Hon Laurence David SKELLY MHK  OUT

The Hon Juan Paul WATTERSON BA FCA CMgr FCMI SHK  Speaker of the House of Keys  IN

As you say the important thing is always who stands against them - a more extensive field in Peel /Glenfaba would have produced a different result last time I suspect.  That said I think neither Beecroft or Malarkey will stand next time for health reasons, possibly even standing down before 2021.  Robertshaw would be unlikely to go on as well.

Amadeus said on another thread he was disconcerted by the contempt with which Quayle was mentioned by Establishment types - far worse than any previous CM.  I've been struck by the same thing and would add some other Ministers as well including Harmer and Boot.  All these plus Skelly and Cregeen must be vulnerable.  Ashford should be OK, but the DHSC brief has reinforced his reputation as a rather ineffectual Yes-man and dedicated, long-term granny-farming doesn't work if your Department manages to kill off most of your flock.

There are a whole range of MHKs who seem to get in on the "Vote for me I'm a nice person and know lots of you" ticket, but you can't otherwise see what they are there for.  Perkins is the most egregious example, but the same applies to Corlett, Shimmins and Peake.  Moorhouse seems fairly clueless, even by the standards of recent Castletown politicians.  It's possible they do a lot in their constituencies, but an outsider doesn't see much evidence.  People may be expecting a bit more than that in future. 

Baker seems to be a bit more pro-active and may be safer than you think (and perhaps Cannan less so, though he should still get returned).  Bettison probably does enough to stay on (she ought to know how to with her background) though Douglas East is always hard to call.

Edge and Callister are both higher profile but not always positively and could be vulnerable to strong opponents. Caine perhaps similar, though I suspect all three 'work' their constituencies fairly well and may be safer than some.  Hooper strikes me as hard-working and I assume that also applies in Ramsey and should be enough to keep him in.

Watterson got some criticism for taking the easier job of the Speaker rather than becoming a Minister, but should still be re-elected.  Thomas is probably OK despite similar feelings that he is not using his full talents in taking a job with no real powers.  Allinson should be very safe and the Abortion Bill proved that he is capable of getting things done, even when opposed by the current inertia of government.

But it's all early days and voters will try to choose the least-worst option, so we won't have a proper idea until nominations go in.

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Quirkio is very active on Manx Radio phone ins

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39 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

Quirkio is very active on Manx Radio phone ins

You omitted the word sadly from the start of that statement. 

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Perhaps he wants a job as a presenter?

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

But it's all early days and voters will try to choose the least-worst option, so we won't have a proper idea until nominations go in.

I would be surprised if Beecroft, Quayle, Robertshaw or Malarkey stand again. Quayle has been pretty clear on the issue in the past too that he was very unlikely to. So there should be a few fresh candidates in those seats. That said I think candidates have to stand if they want to qualify for the 6 months resettlement grant or whatever it’s called. Basically 6 months pay. 

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Will Rogers summed it up perfectly

"Everything is changing. People are taking their comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke"

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Rushen Spy said:

So, will any of you be standing?

Why would you. To achieve anything you would have to ensure you were amongst 24 like minded candidates all working towards the same end. I’ll leave it here.

When they all come calling for your votes, produce their last manifesto and go through it with them

Edited by Neil Down
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