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doc.fixit

AI, Modern Magic or Dangerous Future?

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Great topic and interesting contributions. Thanks. 

Daniel Dennett is one of my heroes and in this talk he is 1) very pessimistic about AI and counsels against developing strong general intelligence algorithms but 2) thinks it is far harder than we think. 

His ideas on strict liability and insurance for those using AI are very interesting and the total opposite of what google etc are doing to with driverless cars and I was intrigued by his views on keeping AI cute but dumb - a guide dog for companionship and to collect slippers but not a seer to make policies we are unable to comprehend. Robots should be slaves was one of his slides and he emphasised the loss to humanity if it left analysis and critical thinking to machines while we headed into the Brave New World of carefree hedonism. 

Such a path is to our danger and he saw no reason for an effectively immortal engine capable of being backed up and reloaded to multiple new locations to view wet ware emphatically. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhsiFjDoxgk

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'Automation engineer' is on my CV.

I survived redundancies on the Island, am now in China, (guess what company.. dont say). I saw lines shipped from the isle of man, producing 12k product per shift of 28 operators, to the same lines in China with 50 ops making 7k a day.

I was not involved in that to a great extent.. I am not a boss.

But 3 years ago, I was involved in a new product design, my input was manufacturing techniqiues, and I proposed robots to assemble it.  Its important to understand.. stuff has to be designed for automation. 

Forget Asimovs 3 rules.

I can program automation and robots. It does what you tell it to. 

The last line I designed. 6ops, 14k per shift output. 

Kicking myself for not demanding loyalties on my patents. lol. 

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Posted (edited)

Anyway. 

Page 3, and nobody has mentioned universal basic income.

Automation needs a paradigm shift to address the corporate greed for short term gain, the search for low cost bases, skills required, reduced manual labour, and.. exponential population growth.

Automation and AI is a self feeding technosystem. Cost down on everything. From the rare earths used in stepper motor magnets, to the cheap alumimium and other metals produced in automated mines.

There will come a point where there is simply not enough jobs for everyone. 

High wages in the west for programmers will go, as India has already shown.

10 years ago, a five axis robot cost 60kGPB. Now thanks to cheap labour manufacturing tech, a copy of that robot costs 10k in China. But its not actually a copy. Its made to the same open standard. In response to this, companies such as ABB are making more sophisticated robots, that cost more, China and Taiwan (both China) are making cheaper robots, simpler.

As a result, lets call it the Amstrad effect, required capital investment in manufacturing in the east is going down, in the west it is going up.

Put it another way. Western companies are spending on 3d printers.. tip top of tech.. and charging top prices.

Asia is making robots cheaper..Amstrad style.

We need a worldwide universal basic income. Otherwise, we will see abandoned countries and humantarian crises as never seen.

Lets toss in climate change in at this point.

Ouch

edited spelling.

Edited by ScotsAlan

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1 hour ago, ScotsAlan said:

Anyway. 

Page 3, and nobody has mentioned universal basic income.



Not sure that UBI is _the_ solution, may well be a part of a solution.

As I said on P1 "AI will be a real challenge to humanity unless we can evolve our society to accommodate it." UBI may be part of that but folk need something to do, otherwise they're just going to get pissed and procreate - which will exacerbate the Earth's resource challenges (or fight, which might be the answer).

I spent a chunk of my early career putting folk out of jobs via automation, paid for by the UK Gov't to improve UK industrial efficiency. Was not an altogether happy time for me, but society evolved to create new "work" for most of those folk. Problem this time around is that it's hard to see what the next iteration of new work, which computers / robots / AI cannot do better and more cheaply, is going to be. Needs to be something uniquely human, and other than procreation! 

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Somewhere in this is the profit motive. In Utopia there is no need for a firm to make more profit than is necessary for on costs, salaries, development, machinery repair and replacement etc.

If there was a way of creating a system that rewarded hard work and enterprise without exploitation of some and utterly ridiculous rewards for a few then a/ I would support it and b/ can I.T, AI, or robotics lead the way to it? 

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