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Property Market Overdeveloped, Government Policy To Blame?

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13 minutes ago, manxy said:

I think you're right BW and CT seems to be another person who follows anything that the cabinet says these days.

What happened to him standing up for the people like he used to? He seems to have forgotten his roots somehow and his noble intentions as to what he would like to achieve for the public. It seems that he's become one of the many politicians who BS these days which is a shame really as I once liked him for standing up for what he personally believed in, but he seems to be just another quitter who follows the dosh and the politicians line of I'll look after you if you look after me! Maybe I'm wrong and it won't be the first time, but I dislike 'Yes men' who feel the need to jump when called and shine the shoes of those in higher power.

Regards the properties - Anyone having over 5 houses should pay an additional tax and every 5 over that has further increases. Rented properties don't help new buyers and with lots of foreigners over here on temporary contracts, then it again prevents young people from purchasing a house.

Obviously the main house builders will want to expand, but IMO, there's far too many empty houses as it is and further house building will only knock down the prices of houses.

CT seems to overlook that inflated property prices and inflated rental being pumped up by off island non resident tax avoiders, is what is chasing Isle of Man residents and workers from our shores and keeping potential residents from being able to establish and sustain living here.      Are you just waiting for the crash CT or is that the time you retire.  

It is not rocket science, form a policy and implement it, that’s what your role is, not to rant and pick up the salary which you do very well, but to make a decision and use your supposed education to lead or resign.

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16 hours ago, Chris Thomas said:

Thank you for your comment.

in response, I disagree that ‘’most” of the difference will not be due to definition and measurement differences. Our electricity usage data shows that fewer than a 1000 properties seem to be completely empty.

Also you have provided neither any evidence to support the assertion that the Irish census process was more diligent than the Manx one in 2016, nor that the Manx process is the same in 2016 as it was in 2001. In fact both the Irish and Manx census reports identify similar issues to take into account in their censuses in 2021.

Finally the proportion in U.K. varies so much between place and by definition it is pointless comparing anything. What matters is understanding all the data about housing in the Island and changing law or policy if necessary to ensure the market and planning processes work for people. 

Could you please expand on the electricity usage thing? I know of three properties which have been completely empty for years & years but still have very modest electricity consumption - to escape this you have to pay the MUA loads to disconnect, & you are then unable to use a hoover, dehumidifier or lawnmower on the premises

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12 hours ago, James Hampton said:

I’m afraid it is you that is mistaken.

The data is for vehicles registered, not vehicles licensed. You cannot relicense after 2 years out of tax without a test, however there is no automatic cancellation of registrations. If you do take a car back for a test you do NOT have to re-register it provided you still have the original registration - no matter how long it has been. All of the log books I have - some of which haven’t been taxed in 20 years - still appear on the government website as registered, because that’s exactly what they are. They’ve never been scrapped or exported on paper, so are still registered - and so they do appear in that data. Registration is not licensing. 

It may well be that the figures the DoI are producing are unreliable or perhaps being calculated differently each year.  Certainly the figures in that graph seem to move about more than you would expect.  And the total number of cars (52,277 in 2017-18) seems very high for an island with an over-16 population of around 70,000.  But equally if the database is clogged up with ever-increasing numbers of unlicensed, long-dead registrations, you wouldn't expect the numbers to ever go down, in fact they have dropped by quite a bit over the last decade. 

So it may they've spent a lot of time and effort to produce something that doesn't work.  Well it is the DoI.

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There are many, many unlicenced vehicles on that database. I was trawling through it a couple of months ago trying to find out if a few of my past old motorbikes were still in existence (sad, I know). They were still there by registration no., in one case untaxed for 30 years.

Unless the DOI are notified of scrappage or export (I think a fee applies for that notification too?) then the vehicles concerned remain on the database indefinitely which must be massively skewing the figures?

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16 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It may well be that the figures the DoI are producing are unreliable or perhaps being calculated differently each year.  Certainly the figures in that graph seem to move about more than you would expect.  And the total number of cars (52,277 in 2017-18) seems very high for an island with an over-16 population of around 70,000.  But equally if the database is clogged up with ever-increasing numbers of unlicensed, long-dead registrations, you wouldn't expect the numbers to ever go down, in fact they have dropped by quite a bit over the last decade. 

So it may they've spent a lot of time and effort to produce something that doesn't work.  Well it is the DoI.

The obvious improvement would be data on vehicles actually licensed during each year. It’s still not perfect as you have people - again like me - who have to tax a vehicle occasionally to prevent it going over the 2 year limit, when the vehicle in question never sees the light of day. However it would still give a far more accurate indication of vehicle use (linked I assume to a point relating to economic activity - if that is the objective) than basic registration data. 

With regards to the overall downward trend in registrations my assumption would be that the majority of people don’t hoard log bogs like some of us, and that there is a majority number turning over in the normal way with a very slight background increase driven by those that slip in to ‘the wrong hands’ :-) 

As you say, the fact the overall trajectory is downward would seem to point to lower numbers overall on the roads given there is bound to be an error pushing it slightly upward. And that probably does point to an economic driver. 

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14 hours ago, buncha wankas said:

CT seems to overlook that inflated property prices and inflated rental being pumped up by off island non resident tax avoiders, is what is chasing Isle of Man residents and workers from our shores and keeping potential residents from being able to establish and sustain living here.    

Yes. I believe that if the company is registered here but the directors are based in the UK, those UK-based directors are not subject to income tax either here or by HMRC for any share dividends. This is why many companies have one IOM resident as a director and a bunch of UK-based directors. A lot of the companies are pure fiction for UK residents to collect revenue from IOM rentals (and of course some IOM companies make a profit out of this too by facilitating it). It's a loophole to "avoid" tax.

Edited by Ganesh
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On 8/30/2019 at 5:52 PM, Derek Flint said:

I'm reliably informed on the Twitter by Chris Thomas that net immigration is c.400 persons per annum - so I was wrong. 

In respect of the property market - have a butchers at this: http://manxmove.im/property/scarlett-house-is-a-luxurious-detached-georgian-style-home-ex-show-house-in-a-desirable-location-with-sea-views-and-easy-access-to-fabulous-coastal-walks-nearby/#.XWlRoiMrJdg

Not quite sure why it is listed as 45 Knock Rushen, because I'm pretty certain it is number 1, which in 2014 was sold for £1.15m and allegedly again in 2018 for £1.3m. 

It's now available for £865,000. so someone, in the space of less than 12 months, is willing to take a £400k hit. Notwithstanding it is empty, and someone clearly needs to offload it quickly, that is some kick in the slats. 

Do they know something we don't?

It is 45 Knock Rushen. Think it was originally called Knock Rushen House until the owners of Knock Rushen house told them there house is also called that and is about 100 yards from each other. Number 1 is opposite. 

I always assumed it was being rented, (a lot of the developments are down there, many were never ‘sold’) however a little while back apparently the gendarme made an arrest of the occupants, according to the grape the occupant was arrested on serious fraud charges, house contents disappeared overnight, all was rather strange. So maybe liquidating the asset at any cost. 

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I would be absolutely amazed if their isn’t a strategy already hatched somewhere in London for the IoM to accept it’s ‘refugee burden’ and the relentless house building will be playing into that.

The two islands either side of us have embarked on a huge migration commitment, the Scottish islands are taking in their share and it’s only the Crown Dependancies that have escaped the burden on their infrastructure. So far.

If we have a large amount of empty properties in the next few years we’ll get a cash offer to fill them, with a cash sweetener to go towards their upkeep and a bit extra to pay the pensions of our overlords who will sell us out.

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9 minutes ago, quilp said:

Where will they all work..? 

The economics are less important than the cultural enrichment that places like London and numerous northern towns are currently experiencing. 

It might seem like a little oasis at the moment when you come back from the shitshow that the U.K. is degenerating into but it won’t stay like this for much longer. 

Edited by Lxxx
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As Cabinet Office statistics now reduce the number of empty properties from 6500 to 650... (iomtoday). :lol:

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Actually it's IOM Newspapers who are slow of the mark as this is just a spin on the Report we have been discussing - presumably it's already appeared in the print Examiner, though.  But the 'reduction' is such an obvious piece of cack-handed fiddling that it would be better not mentioning it. 

Basically any property that was noted as empty in the 2016 Census, but used any electricity in the two years plus up to the end of June is now declared to be occupied.  By also ignoring 831 properties they couldn't find any usage data for, they were able to get the number of 'empty' properties down to 664.  Presumably the next step will be to declare these 664 as uninhabitable and so there are no empty properties on the Island and we need to build, build, build.

Of course some of these properties will indeed have come back into occupation in the three years since the Census. but then others, maybe more, will have become vacant.  You can't mix-and-match data, like that, the only valid electricity usage for these properties will that for the period around April 2016.  True some of those properties may be holiday homes that weren't being used at the time of the Census[1], but such things should be treated separately (as the Irish Census does).  What is more some of these may be properties inherited or bought as an investment that might go on the market if prices (or other forms of investment) became more attractive.  They're a sort of market buffer that needs to be considered in looking at housing needs.

 

[1]  Holiday homes of the sort that are let out commercially seem to have been rightly treated separately by the Census and compulsory registration of such premises on the Island should make this easier.

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