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Max Power

New car registrations as an indicator of economic stability.

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5 hours ago, woolley said:

To which statistics are you referring?  If you are alluding to the thread title, vehicles will be registered here  no matter where they originate, so that statistic will not be skewed by off Island purchases. 

But as an economic indicator it is an issue as if the car is bought in the UK the VAT is booked there on registration so falling new registrations here is probably a big economic negative whatever the cause. I presume the idea behind Jackson’s was that it should have pushed new Manx registrations (and probably VAT imports up from the Channel Islands) for the benefit of the IOM VAT office but in effect if it’s led to more people buying cars in the UK as the statistics might be suggesting it probably has created a serious knock-on for the Manx economy. 

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On 9/17/2019 at 2:34 PM, woolley said:

This just isn't happening. Exactly  like the wider 'stop the climate emergency', it's a triumph of hype and hope over feasibility. There is nothing wrong with electric traction per se. Motors have been around for over a century powering electric trains etc. and are beyond proven. The problem has always been supply. Short of building some sort of overhead catenary infrastructure over every main road, we are left with batteries and these bring multiple problems of their own. Manufacture and disposal is energy hungry and toxic, not to mention depleting of scarce resource. After all of the upheaval, is it merely moving the problem off the streets, desirable though that is, to less visible but equally fragile areas of the global environment? Without a truly revolutionary quantum leap in power storage technology,  I just don't see any of this coming to pass. Nut to crack a sledgehammer. 

Electric motors are massively more efficient at converting stored energy to kinetic energy than internal combustion engines, Factor of 3X minimum, but for all practical purposes more like 5X. Problem is the generation, distribution and in-car storage of the electricity - which is why pure battery EVs are nothing more than a stepping stone on the path to Fuel Cells. Fuel Cell vehicles still need batteries as a buffer between the fuel cell and the electric motor, but _could_ solve the generation and distribution problems. To date most fuel cells for automotive purposes have used Hydrogen, which is problematic because it's expensive to manufacture and there's no significant distribution network in place, however several teams of US researchers have working experimental Gasoline Fuel Cells - and if they succeed in developing them to commercial viability then they would open a future of petrol fuel cell cars which achieve significantly better than 100 mpg (150mpg+ for small cars) from petrol, for which we already have excellent manufacturing and distribution networks.

My bet, therefore, is a near future of petrol fuel cell cars which use a small battery as a buffer between the fuel cell and the electric motor(s). Timeline? Maybe a decade before the first (expensive) models hit the road, up to two decades before they are affordable for most consumers.  This won't eliminate fossil fuel extraction but it will significantly reduce the problems of using fossil fuels.

Ultimately I think the long term answer still has to be sourced from renewable energy - e.g. hydrogen manufactured using solar or wind power, but in the near term (until we have decent hydrogen manufacturing & distribution) the petrol (or kerosene) fuel cell looks to be a positive next step for motive power.

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1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said:

But as an economic indicator it is an issue as if the car is bought in the UK the VAT is booked there on registration so falling new registrations here is probably a big economic negative whatever the cause. I presume the idea behind Jackson’s was that it should have pushed new Manx registrations (and probably VAT imports up from the Channel Islands) for the benefit of the IOM VAT office but in effect if it’s led to more people buying cars in the UK as the statistics might be suggesting it probably has created a serious knock-on for the Manx economy. 

I doubt there has been a sudden rush to buy cars off island.  Plenty do it already.  And many garages do exactly that. It's simply a case of how much you are willing to pay to avoid the hassle.

 

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11 hours ago, craggy_steve said:

Electric motors are massively more efficient at converting stored energy to kinetic energy than internal combustion engines, Factor of 3X minimum, but for all practical purposes more like 5X. Problem is the generation, distribution and in-car storage of the electricity - which is why pure battery EVs are nothing more than a stepping stone on the path to Fuel Cells. Fuel Cell vehicles still need batteries as a buffer between the fuel cell and the electric motor, but _could_ solve the generation and distribution problems. To date most fuel cells for automotive purposes have used Hydrogen, which is problematic because it's expensive to manufacture and there's no significant distribution network in place, however several teams of US researchers have working experimental Gasoline Fuel Cells - and if they succeed in developing them to commercial viability then they would open a future of petrol fuel cell cars which achieve significantly better than 100 mpg (150mpg+ for small cars) from petrol, for which we already have excellent manufacturing and distribution networks.

My bet, therefore, is a near future of petrol fuel cell cars which use a small battery as a buffer between the fuel cell and the electric motor(s). Timeline? Maybe a decade before the first (expensive) models hit the road, up to two decades before they are affordable for most consumers.  This won't eliminate fossil fuel extraction but it will significantly reduce the problems of using fossil fuels.

Ultimately I think the long term answer still has to be sourced from renewable energy - e.g. hydrogen manufactured using solar or wind power, but in the near term (until we have decent hydrogen manufacturing & distribution) the petrol (or kerosene) fuel cell looks to be a positive next step for motive power.

Very interesting,  but a couple of party pooper observations. Your 3x 5x comparison is manifestly unfair on the poor old infernal combustion engine because a lot more of the work for the motor has already been done at the power station. Or has this been accounted for in the calculations?  Also, when I hear phrases such as "a decade or two" I am reminded of the holy grail search for a comprehensive cancer cure which always seems to be a similar period of time in the future. 

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16 hours ago, mad_manx said:

I think you are wrong.. The thread title only includes cars which were first registered from new in the IOM.

Cars brought over from the UK ( ex UK plates) are not counted in this figure..

I take your word for this. How very odd. It renders the statistics largely meaningless. Perhaps it would be useful if they released figures for: A) New vehicle on Island registrations. B) New Manx registrations of new vehicles bought off Island and imported by dealers. C) Same but imported by the user/owner. D) All other new registrations of imported vehicles previously used elsewhere. Presumably they maintain this data towards the VAT calculations to ensure the Island claims the VAT paid by Manx residents on vehicles sourced in the UK. Another odd figure I read recently was that the total number of vehicles registered,  once over 80,000 had dipped below 60,000. 

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It’s very difficult to get statistics out of the Highway Board. The only registration stats available are via the DVLA from the motor industry trade body.

Interestingly, it seems that the business case for Jackson’s was based on what they believed were based on figures of 4,368 registrations from government figures. What they failed to tell them was that this was the number of registration numbers issued. That is new cars, used cars, motorcycles, trucks, busses, cherished number transfers etc etc. Apparently the whole business case was based on flawed information!

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2 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Interestingly, it seems that the business case for Jackson’s was based on what they believed were based on figures of 4,368 registrations from government figures. What they failed to tell them was that this was the number of registration numbers issued. That is new cars, used cars, motorcycles, trucks, busses, cherished number transfers etc etc. Apparently the whole business case was based on flawed information!

To be honest you’d think they’d check those figures. It’s not governments fault. Anyone investing long millions anywhere employs people to do due diligence and check stuff before they invest. 

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2 minutes ago, Grounds Keeper Willy said:

To be honest you’d think they’d check those figures. It’s not governments fault. Anyone investing long millions anywhere employs people to do due diligence and check stuff before they invest. 

A bit of over confidence on someone’s part I think Willy!

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9 minutes ago, Max Power said:

It’s very difficult to get statistics out of the Highway Board. The only registration stats available are via the DVLA from the motor industry trade body.

Interestingly, it seems that the business case for Jackson’s was based on what they believed were based on figures of 4,368 registrations from government figures. What they failed to tell them was that this was the number of registration numbers issued. That is new cars, used cars, motorcycles, trucks, busses, cherished number transfers etc etc. Apparently the whole business case was based on flawed information!

we are good with numbers over here,  i heard that jacksons were under the impression we had a population of 300k ??      we also had an incinerator built based on our total waste tonnage rather than the combustible waste tonnage.

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1 hour ago, woolley said:

Presumably they maintain this data towards the VAT calculations to ensure the Island claims the VAT paid by Manx residents on vehicles sourced in the UK. Another odd figure I read recently was that the total number of vehicles registered,  once over 80,000 had dipped below 60,000. 

I think the VAT calculations are now mainly based on surveys of on-Island usage.  So they might include VAT on new cars bought in the UK, but of course VAT on 'nearly' new. ie minimally pre-owned, would be due in the UK where the first sale took place.

The discussion on the total number of vehicles registered (on another thread) was based on the figures in the Isle of Man in Numbers 2019.  It does indeed show that drop, though there was some discussion as to what was included.

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1 hour ago, woolley said:

Very interesting,  but a couple of party pooper observations. Your 3x 5x comparison is manifestly unfair on the poor old infernal combustion engine because a lot more of the work for the motor has already been done at the power station. Or has this been accounted for in the calculations?  Also, when I hear phrases such as "a decade or two" I am reminded of the holy grail search for a comprehensive cancer cure which always seems to be a similar period of time in the future. 

 The comparison is not unfair, it's about the efficiency of stored energy conversion. Electric motors commonly achieve 95%+ conversion efficiency from electric to traction all the way across the rev range, whereas petrol ICEs get 30% peak, commonly less than 15%  because we rarely drive our cars with the engine constantly running at peak efficiency (typically somewhere around 70% of max revs).

Clearly the efficiency of generating the stored energy is a significant factor in the logistics of delivering it to the vehicle. It costs energy to make and supply petrol from oil, and energy to make electricity from fossil fuels. The energy conversion efficiency of a top-end gas turbine power station is somewhere around 60% - so yes there's a f'ing great loss there, albeit arguably still much more efficient than the ICE.

Petrol is really a great energy storage medium, very energy-dense, the problem is the inefficiency of the ICE in converting petrol in to kinetic energy. That's where the electric motor has its advantage,  but electric motors can't work on petrol - until we get petrol fuel cells. Fuel cells are maybe 3X as efficient as variable load ICEs. Run an ICE at peak efficiency, constant load (e.g. in an electric motor hybrid with onboard petrol generator like the Vauxhall Ampera) and the ratio drops - the fuel cell will only be twice as efficient.

Hope that helps. The ability to run a petrol genset at constant peak efficiency is what gives hybrid cars their significant MPG advantage over conventional ICEs. Replace the petrol genset with a fuel cell which is twice as efficient and instead of a car with a 50% advantage you wind up with a 300% advantage. Add in inefficient driving conditions, such as on the IoM where there are few long constant-speed routes such as dual carriageways / motorways, and the advantage could be in the region of 450 - 500%.

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

I think the VAT calculations are now mainly based on surveys of on-Island usage.  So they might include VAT on new cars bought in the UK, but of course VAT on 'nearly' new. ie minimally pre-owned, would be due in the UK where the first sale took place.

Under the TBMM regime VAT on all spending by Manx residents and businesses in the UK, whether it be new vehicles, a night at an hotel or a bar of chocolate is claimable by the Island and vice versa. This is why they do the spending surveys and the questionnaires at the ports asking residents how much they will be spending while away and for what purpose, and visitors where they are from and how much they spent while in IOM. ETA: RogerM. Just reread your post.  See what you were saying now.

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

I think the VAT calculations are now mainly based on surveys of on-Island usage.  So they might include VAT on new cars bought in the UK, but of course VAT on 'nearly' new. ie minimally pre-owned, would be due in the UK where the first sale took place.

The discussion on the total number of vehicles registered (on another thread) was based on the figures in the Isle of Man in Numbers 2019.  It does indeed show that drop, though there was some discussion as to what was included.

As I said earlier in the thread, I think numbers of vehicles licensed rather than registered over say ten years would give a far more informative data set.

I quite fancy finding out actually as it would also shed light on the population question. I’ll have a crack at an FOI later if I get time. 

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2 hours ago, craggy_steve said:

 The comparison is not unfair, it's about the efficiency of stored energy conversion. Electric motors commonly achieve 95%+ conversion efficiency from electric to traction all the way across the rev range, whereas petrol ICEs get 30% peak, commonly less than 15%  because we rarely drive our cars with the engine constantly running at peak efficiency (typically somewhere around 70% of max revs).

Clearly the efficiency of generating the stored energy is a significant factor in the logistics of delivering it to the vehicle. It costs energy to make and supply petrol from oil, and energy to make electricity from fossil fuels. The energy conversion efficiency of a top-end gas turbine power station is somewhere around 60% - so yes there's a f'ing great loss there, albeit arguably still much more efficient than the ICE.

Petrol is really a great energy storage medium, very energy-dense, the problem is the inefficiency of the ICE in converting petrol in to kinetic energy. That's where the electric motor has its advantage,  but electric motors can't work on petrol - until we get petrol fuel cells. Fuel cells are maybe 3X as efficient as variable load ICEs. Run an ICE at peak efficiency, constant load (e.g. in an electric motor hybrid with onboard petrol generator like the Vauxhall Ampera) and the ratio drops - the fuel cell will only be twice as efficient.

Hope that helps. The ability to run a petrol genset at constant peak efficiency is what gives hybrid cars their significant MPG advantage over conventional ICEs. Replace the petrol genset with a fuel cell which is twice as efficient and instead of a car with a 50% advantage you wind up with a 300% advantage. Add in inefficient driving conditions, such as on the IoM where there are few long constant-speed routes such as dual carriageways / motorways, and the advantage could be in the region of 450 - 500%.

As I said, very interesting. I know we have to start somewhere. I did mention earlier the elusive cure for cancer always being "a couple of decades" away, but perhaps a more pertinent analogy would be nuclear fusion, which would give us endless, safe, dirt cheap power if only we can make it work.

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4 minutes ago, woolley said:

As I said, very interesting. I know we have to start somewhere. I did mention earlier the elusive cure for cancer always being "a couple of decades" away, but perhaps a more pertinent analogy would be nuclear fusion, which would give us endless, safe, dirt cheap power if only we can make it work.

Shirley you mean Cold Nuclear Fusion?

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