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House prices dip

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Just now, Chris Thomas said:

Which other estimates proved to be wide of the mark by a considerable margin as housing isn’t wide of the mark as there is little control on registering transfers? 

With respect:

How about promenade completion dates and costs? 

Liverpool SPCo Terminal costs?

Diesel locomotives?

Hospital running budgets?

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9 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

In fact data about all registered transactions is published as open data https://www.gov.im/about-the-government/government/open-data/economy/land-transactions/, with the dataset updated monthly.

Housing transaction data could be published with a 12 month delay. Would that be better and if so, why?

Which other estimates proved to be wide of the mark by a considerable margin as housing isn’t wide of the mark as there is little control on registering transfers? 

How can it be in a little diddy place like the IOM to have your finger so off the pulse?

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1 minute ago, Non-Believer said:

With respect:

How about promenade completion dates and costs? 

Liverpool SPCo Terminal costs?

Diesel locomotives?

Hospital running budgets?

None of those are economic or other official statistics. 

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7 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

None of those are economic or other official statistics. 

You mean they're not on a piece of paper that's handed to you.

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7 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

None of those are economic or other official statistics. 

No, they're not statistics, they are Govt produced estimates of costs within our economy. Which you requested that I post as examples. The question was about estimates, not statistics.

These estimates pertain to considerable costs to the taxpayer within our economy though. And have been proven to be wildly inaccurate. Which naturally throws doubt on any other figures that IoMG produce.

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13 hours ago, Chris Thomas said:

But the reason the July figures matched was because “data on the housing market has not been updated as due to changes in Land Registration fees which came into place on 1 September 2019, many transactions were not lodged which would have significantly distorted any statistics produce for the quarter,” citing the quarterly report from that quarter.

Also the figures will be adjusted for 12 months not 3, [...]

Oh I realise that in theory the figures can be adjusted back forever, but in practice three months lag should include the vast majority of transactions, as the Government's own website points out:

Quote

 

A transaction will only show once the land has been registered in the Land Registry. The amount of time it takes for land to be registered following a sale varies.

When land that has never been registered in the Land Registry is sold, the Advocates acting on behalf of the purchasers have up to 3 months to submit the application in order to register the land – providing there are no issues with the application, registration normally takes place within about 8 weeks of the application being received. In some complex cases, it may be many months before an application is registered but such cases are in the minority.

When registered land is transferred, there is no time limit requiring the applicant to register the transfer. However, as mortgage lenders require their security over the land to be registered the vast majority of applications tend to be submitted in a very timely manner. Transfers are normally registered by the Land Registry within about 2 weeks of the application being received, although in many cases within just 2 to 3 days.

 

Transactions that take longer than 3-6 months[1] to be registered and processed[2] are likely to be the more unusual ones,  so it may be that the three month after figures would give a better picture of the underlying market than the final figures after they are included.  One-off reasons such as fee changes should also work their way through the system fairly quickly because registration will be piled in after or just before the appropriate date as appropriate.

We'll have to see what the February figures are, but there's nothing in this data that contradicts a picture of a market with fewer sales, particular problems in selling more expensive properties and fewer properties coming on the market (as any estate agent's window will confirm).   

 

[1]  The lack of a requirement to register transactions involving already-registered land looks like an invitation to fraud to me and a mechanism for hiding assets retrospectively..  It's difficult to see why there is no three-month or less limit involved. But as that quote says, the vast majority of 'ordinary' house and flat sales will need to be done as quickly as possible.

[2]  Given the QED comes out over a month after the end of the quarter it's possible data from after then is also included, which would make it 4-7 months.

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"House Prices Dip"..but did they?

Chris and Derek suggest we look at the data. As it is raining and the dogs won't go out, I did.

I don't think a record of sales can tell you whether house prices are falling or rising. If you sell 4 houses at £1m in year 1, and then sell 8 houses at 500k in year 2, your average price will have fallen dramatically but is it really the case that prices have fallen or is it that the type and size of houses being sold has changed? I suspect that any change in the average sale price is a mixture of price changes and a change in the mix of property types being sold.

What can we tell? Well;

a) average prices seem quite stable, 

b) volumes are increasing steadily, 

c) some price-bands (per many anecdotes) sell better than others.

image.png.3099b2e9e141b314f87867af96f0866a.png

 

Ignore 2019 as it seems many transactions not registered yet. There is a dip in 2009 as the world reacts to the Financial Crisis, this dip mirrors the FTSE. There is a smaller dip in 2011, a similar dip also happened in the FTSE but much smaller. Perhaps we are more sensitive. After that volumes have steadily increased.

image.png.1621f4e817f0367f3152ab2246fbdc71.png

This is all property transactions so it includes land, commercial and some very large transactions. There are slight variations but I suggest recent years are very steady. These prices do not take account of inflation so, in real terms, prices are slipping.

image.png.e0ab5305ad97b35e9bd24c045c9be98a.png

This is total value of transactions. It seems to be steadily increasing for the last 7 years.

image.thumb.png.28e9e766cbb7e248c2b8003558b9254e.png

I often hear it said that houses in band £X to £y are selling, but over £z, no chance. This graph shows that there is much truth in these anecdotes.

The bands £100k to 200k and 200k to 300k, each show sales of about 600 units per annum. This is double the 300k to 400k band at about 300 units per annum. All other bands are much less significant. There are many sales at £0 or £1, I suspect these are not commercial transactions (gifts, wills, re-organisatiions etc).

image.thumb.png.5af4428534426f874eeae17ee602b53f.png

I think this one might be difficult to see. This is sales in bands by value. It shows that the band 200k to 300k produces by far the greatest value of transactions - about £150m pa. The value of transactions in the three most significant bands is increasing.

I did more but a lot of the results were boring. Some snippets;

  • There are about 2,000 transactions pa
  • Av value is about 270k (but this is lots of different transaction types)
  • There were 31 transactions over £5m, all seem to be commercial properties.
  • I could see no discenible pattern re seasonal variations

 

NB Base rate plummeted in 2008 so cheap cash has maintained prices and volume more than might otherwise have happened. Any increase in interest rates could have an opposite effect. For some, borrowing became very cheap in 2008/9.

Please all feel free to explain/discuss what the above means.

I did this in a spare half hour because it was raining. I expect it includes errors, needs lots of checking and no-one should use it for making serious decisions. The numbers are all based on the govt. data re land transactions.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Oh I realise that in theory the figures can be adjusted back forever, but in practice three months lag should include the vast majority of transactions, as the Government's own website points out:

Transactions that take longer than 3-6 months[1] to be registered and processed[2] are likely to be the more unusual ones,  so it may be that the three month after figures would give a better picture of the underlying market than the final figures after they are included.  One-off reasons such as fee changes should also work their way through the system fairly quickly because registration will be piled in after or just before the appropriate date as appropriate.

We'll have to see what the February figures are, but there's nothing in this data that contradicts a picture of a market with fewer sales, particular problems in selling more expensive properties and fewer properties coming on the market (as any estate agent's window will confirm).   

 

[1]  The lack of a requirement to register transactions involving already-registered land looks like an invitation to fraud to me and a mechanism for hiding assets retrospectively..  It's difficult to see why there is no three-month or less limit involved. But as that quote says, the vast majority of 'ordinary' house and flat sales will need to be done as quickly as possible.

[2]  Given the QED comes out over a month after the end of the quarter it's possible data from after then is also included, which would make it 4-7 months.

Thank you for responding. I agree with what you write. 

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6 hours ago, Phillip Dearden said:

"House Prices Dip"..but did they?

Chris and Derek suggest we look at the data. As it is raining and the dogs won't go out, I did.

I don't think a record of sales can tell you whether house prices are falling or rising. If you sell 4 houses at £1m in year 1, and then sell 8 houses at 500k in year 2, your average price will have fallen dramatically but is it really the case that prices have fallen or is it that the type and size of houses being sold has changed? I suspect that any change in the average sale price is a mixture of price changes and a change in the mix of property types being sold.

What can we tell? Well;

a) average prices seem quite stable, 

b) volumes are increasing steadily, 

c) some price-bands (per many anecdotes) sell better than others.

image.png.3099b2e9e141b314f87867af96f0866a.png

 

Ignore 2019 as it seems many transactions not registered yet. There is a dip in 2009 as the world reacts to the Financial Crisis, this dip mirrors the FTSE. There is a smaller dip in 2011, a similar dip also happened in the FTSE but much smaller. Perhaps we are more sensitive. After that volumes have steadily increased.

image.png.1621f4e817f0367f3152ab2246fbdc71.png

This is all property transactions so it includes land, commercial and some very large transactions. There are slight variations but I suggest recent years are very steady. These prices do not take account of inflation so, in real terms, prices are slipping.

image.png.e0ab5305ad97b35e9bd24c045c9be98a.png

This is total value of transactions. It seems to be steadily increasing for the last 7 years.

image.thumb.png.28e9e766cbb7e248c2b8003558b9254e.png

I often hear it said that houses in band £X to £y are selling, but over £z, no chance. This graph shows that there is much truth in these anecdotes.

The bands £100k to 200k and 200k to 300k, each show sales of about 600 units per annum. This is double the 300k to 400k band at about 300 units per annum. All other bands are much less significant. There are many sales at £0 or £1, I suspect these are not commercial transactions (gifts, wills, re-organisatiions etc).

image.thumb.png.5af4428534426f874eeae17ee602b53f.png

I think this one might be difficult to see. This is sales in bands by value. It shows that the band 200k to 300k produces by far the greatest value of transactions - about £150m pa. The value of transactions in the three most significant bands is increasing.

I did more but a lot of the results were boring. Some snippets;

  • There are about 2,000 transactions pa
  • Av value is about 270k (but this is lots of different transaction types)
  • There were 31 transactions over £5m, all seem to be commercial properties.
  • I could see no discenible pattern re seasonal variations

 

NB Base rate plummeted in 2008 so cheap cash has maintained prices and volume more than might otherwise have happened. Any increase in interest rates could have an opposite effect. For some, borrowing became very cheap in 2008/9.

Please all feel free to explain/discuss what the above means.

I did this in a spare half hour because it was raining. I expect it includes errors, needs lots of checking and no-one should use it for making serious decisions. The numbers are all based on the govt. data re land transactions.

 

 

 

Thanks so much for this analysis of the evidence. The facts should be beyond real dispute, but the analysis of those facts is of course variable and varying.

I hope the topic I have started called “Lies, Damned Lies and Experts” can bring clarity to official statistics. Should I cut and paste your comment, and that of Roger Mexico, into this other topic?

I am sure you know the Housing Market Review which was relaunched a couple of years ago https://www.gov.im/media/1366426/housing-market-report.pdf. I hope it is helpful and appreciate suggestions.

As I mentioned on Manx Radio in early December, I hope ongoing Building Condition survey will be completed soon, so we will have up to date data about this aspect of private housing for the first time since 2007. Also hoping to update Census 2011 information about ownership/renting etc. in respect of housing. Any thoughts?

Edited by Chris Thomas

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On 1/12/2020 at 10:59 PM, Non-Believer said:

With respect:

How about promenade completion dates and costs? 

Liverpool SPCo Terminal costs?

Diesel locomotives?

Hospital running budgets?

You forgot the Airport  Radar !! 

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