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32 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

This has been a very interesting ama over on reddit with a critical care doctor from the uk

Well worth a look through, and a little more alarming than you'd hope!

and yet the nhs has asked staff not to to this......

ask them about 5g :alien::rolleyes:

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2 minutes ago, sir nige said:

and yet the nhs has asked staff not to to this......

ask them about 5g :alien::rolleyes:

Not to do what ?

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2 minutes ago, dilligaf said:

Not to do what ?

Speak out publicly 

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The situation in the Rest of the World looks quite bleak at the moment, while in China the huge clamp down for the incubation period has stopped infections very effectively [with all the usual caveats about trusting Chinese figures].

The rest of the world is basically 31 days behind China, but can we do what China has done during those 31 days?  It's interesting, basically in China the order went out "stop hiding cases" - resulting in a huge dump of extra reports - followed by the clamp down, which has been very effective. 

At the moment the growth curve is far more exponential in the rest of the world than it was in China at the same number of cases.  Will individual countries be able to enforce quarantines as effectively as China?  Going to be an interesting few weeks.

Coronavirus4.png.b318de99ccd94c270fb8f15878b005db.png

Just to explain what I mean by 31 days behind.  I'm comparing the total figure for the Rest of the World's coronavirus figures with the total China had 31 days ago.  IE the WHO is reporting 32,778 cases outside China today.  31 days ago China had 34,598 cases.

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Another interesting back of the envelop calculation - Hubei is 60 million people.  It has 60K cases and 3K deaths.

If the Island replicated those figures - 80 cases, 4 deaths.  The UK - basically the same as Hubei.

Not the end of the world.  The main issue is stopping the spread - only 0.1% of people caught it, but 5% died. Estimates of very high proportions of the population being infected badly enough to be screened seem overblown.  Earlier I did a back of the envelope using 30% - looking at those figures in the light of the current situation there's very little evidence of those sorts of infection rates.  Thank goodness.

What happens in Italy in the next week will be very instructive.

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The Diamond Princess cruise ship had nearly 4,000 passengers and crew.  700 caught it, 7 died.  Infection rate 17.5% - seems a good extreme upper bound.  That would be nasty on the Island - 140 deaths.  But we aren't a cruise ship.  People will have better opportunities to isolate themselves.

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27 minutes ago, Chinahand said:

The Diamond Princess cruise ship had nearly 4,000 passengers and crew.  700 caught it, 7 died.  

Imagine the costs of deep cleaning that ship. Even if the virus can't theoretically survive that long...lots of future passengers might expect it to be done.

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I know at least 3 people on island who have been treated for pneumonia this year and prescribed drugs to treat it.

One under 30, one under 40 and one under 60. One was off work for three weeks!

Its here already I tell ya...

 

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Interesting comparison from Spanish flu showing quarantines and social distancing works:

F1.large_.jpg

philadelphia didn’t quarantine and had a large public parade at the same time the first cases of Spanish Flu erupted in 1918. While Saint Louis quarantined. The differences are stark. 
More info here:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/2/#h13

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3 hours ago, Northern Correspondent said:

I know at least 3 people on island who have been treated for pneumonia this year and prescribed drugs to treat it.

One under 30, one under 40 and one under 60. One was off work for three weeks!

Its here already I tell ya...

 

From watching Ashford’s interview yesterday, the only way you’ll get tested for Coronavirus over here is if you ‘meet the criteria’ by having been to one of the badly affected countries. 
 

So basically anyone who catches it from someone in the UK or Ireland won’t get tested here and therefore it won’t officially exist over here. 

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1 hour ago, Terminal said:

From watching Ashford’s interview yesterday, the only way you’ll get tested for Coronavirus over here is if you ‘meet the criteria’ by having been to one of the badly affected countries. 
 

So basically anyone who catches it from someone in the UK or Ireland won’t get tested here and therefore it won’t officially exist over here. 

People just need to self report if they have symptoms. They are then assessed and tested. AFAIK

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1 hour ago, dilligaf said:

People just need to self report if they have symptoms. They are then assessed and tested. AFAIK

Nah, not just if you've got symptoms. Its only if you've been somewhere with known cases. I know this because I have been pretty unwell since last Wednesday and phoned the doctors yesterday to ask.

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4 hours ago, Terminal said:

From watching Ashford’s interview yesterday, the only way you’ll get tested for Coronavirus over here is if you ‘meet the criteria’ by having been to one of the badly affected countries. 
 

So basically anyone who catches it from someone in the UK or Ireland won’t get tested here and therefore it won’t officially exist over here. 

Which is a positive, less scare-mongering. If you are at risk of complications from the flu then you are at risk of complications from the coronavirus. The specific virus that causes the problem is an irrelevance really, as if it's as communicable as they say it is the majority will get it anyway over time. Just take care of your health and boost your immune system as best you can and what will be will be.

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