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Derek Flint

BREXITWATCH

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3 hours ago, Lxxx said:

A majority Tory government won’t want to do too much damage to the Crown Dependencies, many of the MP’s and associates will have links to some/all of them. 

They may throw us a bone and renegotiate the VAT agreement as the actual amounts to keep us afloat are minuscule in relation to their overall budget, however it’s the damage to the economy in terms of businesses no longer seeing a benefit being here that will be real killer. 

I didn’t mean they’d attack us directly; simply that their fiscal policies will erode our competitiveness. UK itself will be the offshore option!

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16 minutes ago, Uhtred said:

I didn’t mean they’d attack us directly; simply that their fiscal policies will erode our competitiveness. UK itself will be the offshore option!

Not to anything like the extent we are. The UK is not suddenly going to go tax haven mode Crown Dependency style. 

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9 hours ago, Uhtred said:

I didn’t mean they’d attack us directly; simply that their fiscal policies will erode our competitiveness. UK itself will be the offshore option!

london has been an offshore option for a long time by some accounts.

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9 hours ago, woolley said:

Not to anything like the extent we are. The UK is not suddenly going to go tax haven mode Crown Dependency style. 

Maybe not ‘suddenly’...

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1 hour ago, Uhtred said:

Maybe not ‘suddenly’...

I don't think "at all". For one thing the UK is one of the world's largest dynamic all sectors economies, not a one trick pony like small offshore tax havens. For another, they don't have an associated jurisdiction close by, a thousand times bigger, that is happy to drip feed money via a customs agreement. I appreciate that there might be changes to attract investment but I don't think we will see anything like our tax regime, or even that of somewhere like Ireland.

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12 hours ago, woolley said:

Not to anything like the extent we are. The UK is not suddenly going to go tax haven mode Crown Dependency style. 

It will go down the Irish route though with a low corporate tax rate sometime soonish. The Singapore model was always the intention of those pushing Brexit. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
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9 hours ago, thesultanofsheight said:

It will go down the Irish route though with a low corporate tax rate sometime soonish. The Singapore model was always the intention of those pushing Brexit. 

The logical outcome of Brexit would be complete devolution - county by county, town by town, street by street.

Certainly the regions of the UK would be allowed to compete on both fiscal and monetary policy. Eg - competive rates of taxation, different interest rates etc.

And they should be able to create their own laws and set their own standards. Instead of being dictated to by bureaucrats in London or Edinburgh.

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2 hours ago, pongo said:

The logical outcome of Brexit would be complete devolution - county by county, town by town, street by street.

Certainly the regions of the UK would be allowed to compete on both fiscal and monetary policy. Eg - competive rates of taxation, different interest rates etc.

And they should be able to create their own laws and set their own standards. Instead of being dictated to by bureaucrats in London or Edinburgh.

Good points. For starters - Boris and his Europe-hating cabal removed themselves as they were explicit in their loathing of being dictated to by the foreign jonnies in Brussels. So now the sweaty-socks wish to divest themselves of being dictated to by the foreign jonnies in London. (But do, of course, wish to hook up once again with the foreign jonnies in Brussels).

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11 hours ago, Uhtred said:

(But do, of course, wish to hook up once again with the foreign jonnies in Brussels).

European union had already set a "Task Force for Relations with the United Kingdom" on the 16th November 2019.

So it looks as they knew Boris would win with a land slide.

 

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12 hours ago, Uhtred said:

Good points. For starters - Boris and his Europe-hating cabal removed themselves as they were explicit in their loathing of being dictated to by the foreign jonnies in Brussels. So now the sweaty-socks wish to divest themselves of being dictated to by the foreign jonnies in London. (But do, of course, wish to hook up once again with the foreign jonnies in Brussels).

Some of the sweaty socks do. Remember that more people in Scotland voted for Brexit than voted for the SNP in 2017, so it's by no means everybody north of the border.

Amended to qualify when more Scots voted for Brexit than the SNP following later post from Donald.

Edited by woolley

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13 minutes ago, woolley said:

Some of the sweaty socks do. Remember that more people in Scotland voted for Brexit than voted for the SNP, so it's by no means everybody north of the border.

Not true 

1,242,380 voted for the SNP in the 2019 General Election

1,661,191 voters backed Remain in Scotland in the 2016 referendum

1,018,322 voted Leave

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11 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

Not true 

1,242,380 voted for the SNP in the 2019 General Election

1,661,191 voters backed Remain in Scotland in the 2016 referendum

1,018,322 voted Leave

I was just about to post the same thing.  It's interesting how people keep on repeating the same thing because they've read it in the papers, even though it can be disproved in a few clicks.  To be fair to woolley, more people did vote Leave than voted SNP in the 2016 Scottish Parliament Regional vote (953,587), but even there the number who voted SNP in the Constituency vote[1] (1,059,897) was higher than the Leave vote.  And that election had a much lower turnout (56%) than the EU Referendum did.  So anyone using this phrase knowing that (I suspect woolley didn't) is being very selective about what statistics they use.

It doesn't alter woolley's larger point about a substantial minority of voters in Scotland supporting Leave (38%), but it's an interesting insight into how fake 'facts' can become conventional wisdom just by repetition.

 

[1]  There are good tactical reasons why an SNP voter might say vote Green with their Regional vote, because of the way the Scottish Parliament electoral system works.  If a Party wins all or most of the constituency votes in a Region, then it is less likely to pick up any Regional seats and so its supporters might be better supporting a second choice Party.

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38 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

Not true 

1,242,380 voted for the SNP in the 2019 General Election

1,661,191 voters backed Remain in Scotland in the 2016 referendum

1,018,322 voted Leave

Must have been the previous election then. Hands up. (Yes. Checked 977,569 in the 2017 election.)

However, even taking these figures, saying that the SNP is the voice of Scotland, and that Scotland to a man wants to leave the UK as is often portrayed in the media is far from the case. Remember also, that there was a sizeable vote for the SNP in the latest election that does not want independence. They lent their vote to the SNP tactically and would still vote for the union in a referendum.

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25 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It doesn't alter woolley's larger point about a substantial minority of voters in Scotland supporting Leave (38%), but it's an interesting insight into how fake 'facts' can become conventional wisdom just by repetition.

Indeed Roger, this is the conversation about fake facts we were having yesterday in the Nobles thread. My "fact" here has simply been superseded. It was correct after the 2017 election, but I had omitted to check the 2019 figure. Mea culpa. Slapped wrist firmly administered.

ETA: In my defence and that of the media, I didn't assert this "fact" because "I read it in the papers" for 2019. I actually studied the figures from 2017 and I knew that it was the case for that election from my own research. My mistake was in not rechecking it following the most recent election. I have not seen the claim made in any paper for 2019, so it is not the media peddling fake news, it is simply my error.

Edited by woolley

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There is also another factor at work with Scottish election results. The Scots are canny. They know that a big SNP vote keeps the foot on the neck of Westminster as far as the settlement Scotland has under Barnett is concerned. They enjoy keeping the English guessing about the future. Whether they would push that to the serious business of overplaying the hand and cutting themselves adrift from the UK is another matter entirely. I don't think they would, but time will tell and it's entirely their prerogative.

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