Coronavirus, TT and other Manx sporting events cancellation

[Frances 363]

Probably the virus will evolve to be less damaging to the host thus enabling more transmission to new victims - if the evolved strain provokes an immune response that also attacks the older + more damaging strain then the greater infection rate of the evolved strain will act as some form of fire break

[Manxkipper 10]

Jeremy Vine on BBC Radio 2 today pointed out that two weeks ago Italy had the same number of cases as the Uk has today and look where they now!

[sir nige 157]

“Temperature screening in airports doesn’t really have much effect… mass gatherings and so on, actually don’t make much difference”

"One person in a 70,000 seater stadium is not going to infect the stadium, they'll infect potentially a few people they've got very close contact with"

Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance

tt haters won't like that.......

Edited March 9, 2020 by sir nige

[On The Bus 555]

Assuming that Covid-19 gets here and spreads uncontrollably like it is in Italy (or China before they gained control), Assuming that 80% of the population will get it over a 4 month period, that is 67,000 people with it. If the current death rate of 3% is accurate (in Italy it seems higher because of a more elderly population, the Isle of Man is an elderly population), but lets assume 3%, then that is 2000 people dead this summer. The demand to the health service is 10-15%, 8,000 people requiring hospital help, if over a 4 month period that is 2000 people at a time in the hospital (it could be 2 months and 4000 people). IOM going to build another Nobel's? like the Chinese did? take over the sports hall and schools? who is going to staff those places? Plan realistically so it does not blind side us like in Italy, this virus moves fast, even a GP from Italy had it and did not know (spread onto Tenerife). So it is time to smell the coffee and wake up, make plans, enact limitation now (yes that means stopping those petri-dishes of cruise ships from visiting here, cancel the TT). Israel has now put in law any visitors have to isolate for 14 days, they are taking it seriously. We on the other-hand are carrying on as normal, we all have to accept that this year is going to be a year of sacrifices.

[dilligaf 9,367]

3 minutes ago, On The Bus said:

Assuming that Covid-19 gets here and spreads uncontrollably like it is in Italy (or China before they gained control), Assuming that 80% of the population will get it over a 4 month period, that is 67,000 people with it. If the current death rate of 3% is accurate (in Italy it seems higher because of a more elderly population, the Isle of Man is an elderly population), but lets assume 3%, then that is 2000 people dead this summer. The demand to the health service is 10-15%, 8,000 people requiring hospital help, if over a 4 month period that is 2000 people at a time in the hospital (it could be 2 months and 4000 people). IOM going to build another Nobel's? like the Chinese did? take over the sports hall and schools? who is going to staff those places? Plan realistically so it does not blind side us like in Italy, this virus moves fast, even a GP from Italy had it and did not know (spread onto Tenerife). So it is time to smell the coffee and wake up, make plans, enact limitation now (yes that means stopping those petri-dishes of cruise ships from visiting here, cancel the TT). Israel has now put in law any visitors have to isolate for 14 days, they are taking it seriously. We on the other-hand are carrying on as normal, we all have to accept that this year is going to be a year of sacrifices.

A smarter person did the SUMS differently and declared about 280 deaths. 

Edited March 9, 2020 by dilligaf
Edit to remove insult.

[On The Bus 555]

Just now, dilligaf said:

A smarter person did the SUMS differently and declared about 280 deaths. 

A person who shares your point of view. 

[dilligaf 9,367]

Just now, On The Bus said:

2 minutes ago, dilligaf said:

A smarter person did the SUMS differently and declared about 280 deaths. 

A person who shares your point of view. 

Er, No. I have no idea how this will pan out.

[Manxberry 271]

With the amount of travel, COVID is probably already here just undetected due to it's long incubation period (hell, it's even up in the Faroes for example and they have much fewer transport links!).

Not really much to do - it's likely already endemic in the population. People are still going to come for the TT, and be crammed into Tesco, pubs and restaurants.

The panic really is hilarious though, so much of it is utter nonsense. 

[thesultanofsheight 9,453]

Just now, Manxberry said:

With the amount of travel, COVID is probably already here just undetected due to it's long incubation period (hell, it's even up in the Faroes for example and they have much fewer transport links!).

Not really much to do - it's likely already endemic in the population. People are still going to come for the TT, and be crammed into Tesco, pubs and restaurants.

The panic really is hilarious though, so much of it is utter nonsense. 

Lots of camping with the TT though. Lots of fresh air and crapping in a bucket on a half empty campsite. 

[Manxberry 271]

Honestly it's a damn sight more comfortable than attending Burning Man

[snowman 179]

All of Italy now on lockdown

[Manxberry 271]

It's some Italian "Lockdown" that's for sure - all the airports are still open, plenty of traffic on the roads, restaurants still happily open.

[Albert Tatlock 11,292]

16 minutes ago, dilligaf said:

A smarter person did the SUMS differently and declared about 280 deaths. 

Depends on the rate of infection. 80% with 3% is nearly 2,000. 40% is 1,000, 20% is 500. 'Only' 1 in 10 getting it is closer to your figure.

If it arrives and we all quarantine...it could be low. Virus seems not infectious after someone has had it in their body for 2-3 wks and have recovered from symptoms.

Any sensible business here needs to gear up for its staff working from home...now. But of course lots of people can't do that and need to be covered by adequate sick pay. Plus there will be a core group who regardless of symptoms will still turn up at work for the money. Then there's people that have to turn up at work...essential services....food shops...volunteers shopping etc. for others in isolation.

The reality is 20% of the working population can't just stay at home...either for financial reasons or essential work/volunteering.

[dilligaf 9,367]

1 minute ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Depends on the rate of infection. 80% with 3% is nearly 2,000. 40% is 1,000, 20% is 500. 'Only' 1 in 10 getting it is closer to your figure.

If it arrives and we all quarantine...it could be low. Virus seems not infectious after someone has had it in their body for 2-3 wks and have recovered from symptoms.

Any sensible business here needs to gear up for its staff working from home...now. But of course lots of people can't do that and need to be covered by adequate sick pay. Plus there will be a core group who regardless of symptoms will still turn up at work for the money. Then there's people that have to turn up at work...essential services....food shops...volunteers shopping etc. for others in isolation.

The reality is 20% of the working population can't just stay at home...either for financial reasons or essential work/volunteering.

I think you are basing your figures on population, not detected cases. massive difference.

[The Amazing Ronrico 67]

10 minutes ago, Manxberry said:

It's some Italian "Lockdown" that's for sure - all the airports are still open, plenty of traffic on the roads, restaurants still happily open.

Unlike the Chinese I doubt the Italians do lock down very well. They’ve already had a riot in a prison as family visits were barred doe to corona virus clamp downs.