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Coronavirus, TT and other Manx sporting events cancellation

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12 minutes ago, On The Bus said:

Exactly what they've said they'll unveil in Tynwald this Tuesday.

It'll  be followed by cancellation being confirmed 

I am not so sure at the moment. The DHSC Minister said that they have time on their side as the TT is still months away. That is uninformed thinking as many businesses will be committing now to investing in the TT fortnight and they need early decisions to minimise losses. Also a decision now will enable further decisions to be made about measures to prevent or discourage visitors coming anyway and for the fallout over these measures being properly managed. However, I would not be at all surprised if the Government continues to dither and delay in the hope and expectation that action taken elsewhere will take the decision out of their hands.

If a decision is made that places any other consideration above, or even equal to protecting the health and well-being of Isle of Man residents, the public should not and, I hope will not forgive every politician and public servant implicated in the decision making process. These are the decisions that should make or break careers.

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It's the decisions that may break lifespans too.

And it highlights the difference in speed, anticipation and planning between modern business and Government. The two are gulfs apart.

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13 minutes ago, joebean said:

I am not so sure at the moment. The DHSC Minister said that they have time on their side as the TT is still months away. That is uninformed thinking as many businesses will be committing now to investing in the TT fortnight and they need early decisions to minimise losses. Also a decision now will enable further decisions to be made about measures to prevent or discourage visitors coming anyway and for the fallout over these measures being properly managed. However, I would not be at all surprised if the Government continues to dither and delay in the hope and expectation that action taken elsewhere will take the decision out of their hands.

If a decision is made that places any other consideration above, or even equal to protecting the health and well-being of Isle of Man residents, the public should not and, I hope will not forgive every politician and public servant implicated in the decision making process. These are the decisions that should make or break careers.

You make some good points. The whole thing is mental. The UK Government are getting ready to go to a war time footing, yet the TT fans and our Government have their fingers stuck up their arse pretending there is a snowflake in hells chance of it going ahead. 

Even after it peaks there are going to be months of restrictions. 

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The IOM government and UK Government care more about economics than lives

 

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Posted (edited)

Economics are intrinsically linked with lives. The pound has already fallen massively - if it drops further then we simply won't be able to afford things. 

All well and good doing an Italy, but it's not stopping their cases and their health systems are still overwhelmed. And the number (which, remember, can only officially rise by as much as the testing that is going on) is going to rise continually - the true number is much higher. 

We will not know the true impact until long after, but the short term impact that we are doing to ourselves is devastating. People are going to die in their homes on their own due to self isolating. They are sadly going to die no matter what is done. The TT being cancelled or not is such a non issue at this point - entire countries are crippled and shut down. We will very likely get hit pretty hard due to our aging population (a third over 50),  but we have a great community that always chips in. 

Be realistic, be informed and don't worry - hell, you can self isolate yourself now if you're that worried. 

Edited by Manxberry
optmistism

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6 hours ago, joebean said:

If the TT is cancelled IOMG would have to come up with a support package for the Tourism and Hospitality industry that relies heavily on the event. This will cost millions. However, every other country will be similarly obligated and the IOM is no exception. The health of our resident population must be first priority. To suggest that it would be cancelled “for no good reason” is just ridiculous. 

I lived in Laax - a big, profitable ski resort which is now closed. Laax is refusing to refund money paid in advance for ski-lift passes, this is generating a lot of negative publicity. Similarly the ski-lift company is refusing to refund money paid for rooms in its own hotels.

 

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Villa Beer Fest is due on the 9th April which may not happen depending on what rules come in this week.

I volunteer to self isolate with the supplies. (But no, that'll be a big loss to the organisers who do a good job putting on a fun event)

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1 minute ago, victorian dad said:

Any news on the biggest potato competition?

He's still CM.

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5 hours ago, snowman said:

The IOM government and UK Government care more about economics than lives

 

same as most other  governments then.

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1 hour ago, GD4ELI said:

I lived in Laax - a big, profitable ski resort which is now closed. Laax is refusing to refund money paid in advance for ski-lift passes, this is generating a lot of negative publicity. Similarly the ski-lift company is refusing to refund money paid for rooms in its own hotels.

 

as long as they honor the payments at a later date most people should understand

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11 minutes ago, WTF said:

as long as they honor the payments at a later date most people should understand

There are many pissed-off punters.

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25 minutes ago, WTF said:

as long as they honor the payments at a later date most people should understand

From Facebook:

Marco Pröhl We tried to give back our completely unused ski passes that we bought via the app one week ago and were told that this is not possible. Incredible behaviour of the LAAX team! Worst decision ever to come here.

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So let’s run a decision model on this.

what do we know? 

There is a global pandemic. Travel has been curtailed worldwide and major economies have taken the decision to restrict public interaction, taking steps that include shutting down social areas such as cafes and restaurants, and also mass gatherings. The UK has been accused of being behind the curve, but it does have a body of expertise in terms of virology, and the wider health service capability and capacity. It also has a considerable body of expertise in emergency planning. We know the projected death figures. We know the percentage of population we have on island that might be deemed vulnerable. We know the capacities and limitations of our health service, and our supply chains. We have a major sporting event around 10 weeks away. The peak of UK cases are expected around then.

what threats and risks are there?

risk of health to vulnerable people. High

risk of economic impact. High

risk to general healthy population. Low

risk of long term reputational damage to Island. Medium

risk of public disorder. Low

working strategy:

protect life

minimise risk to vulnerable people

minimise impact on economy

maximise measures that will assist health and economic wellbeing 

maximise measures that will maintain a degree of normality

maintain confidence in Isle of Man Government

maintain confidence in all responding agencies

minimise reputational damage to the Island

seek to return to normality at the earliest opportunity.

legal powers?

article 2 - the State’s positive obligation to protect life

health service legislation, emergency powers legislation. Powers to close schools. Policy on military aid to the civil power. Etc. etc. 

options

carry on as normal 

cancel TT and allow travel to continue

cancel TT and restrict travel

etc. (Assess impact of each of the options you put forward)

then decide which option, or combinations of options you have that will meet the objectives of the working strategy. Following this - do it.

you then have a risk based, fully auditable and defensible decision. It’s not right, it’s not wrong - it’s a decision, based on evidence.

 

the actual thing would run to several pages, but you get the gist.

 

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9 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

So let’s run a decision model on this.

what do we know? 

There is a global pandemic. Travel has been curtailed worldwide and major economies have taken the decision to restrict public interaction, taking steps that include shutting down social areas such as cafes and restaurants, and also mass gatherings. The UK has been accused of being behind the curve, but it does have a body of expertise in terms of virology, and the wider health service capability and capacity. It also has a considerable body of expertise in emergency planning. We know the projected death figures. We know the percentage of population we have on island that might be deemed vulnerable. We know the capacities and limitations of our health service, and our supply chains. We have a major sporting event around 10 weeks away. The peak of UK cases are expected around then.

what threats and risks are there?

risk of health to vulnerable people. High

risk of economic impact. High

risk to general healthy population. Low

risk of long term reputational damage to Island. Medium

risk of public disorder. Low

working strategy:

protect life

minimise risk to vulnerable people

minimise impact on economy

maximise measures that will assist health and economic wellbeing 

maximise measures that will maintain a degree of normality

maintain confidence in Isle of Man Government

maintain confidence in all responding agencies

minimise reputational damage to the Island

seek to return to normality at the earliest opportunity.

legal powers?

article 2 - the State’s positive obligation to protect life

health service legislation, emergency powers legislation. Powers to close schools. Policy on military aid to the civil power. Etc. etc. 

options

carry on as normal 

cancel TT and allow travel to continue

cancel TT and restrict travel

etc. (Assess impact of each of the options you put forward)

then decide which option, or combinations of options you have that will meet the objectives of the working strategy. Following this - do it.

you then have a risk based, fully auditable and defensible decision. It’s not right, it’s not wrong - it’s a decision, based on evidence.

 

the actual thing would run to several pages, but you get the gist.

 

If the promenade works and schemes like the film industry and vision nine show anything they show that they don't apply decision modelling correctly.

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