Coronavirus Isle of Man

[finlo]

9 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

Data is retained for a policing purpose within GDPR and MOPI guidelines. And yes, it could be either of those examples. 

They had to ring me the other day. Got my new number from my website. 

Asking you back to man the riot shields?

[boswellian]

Just wondering how present situation is justified considering this As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK     https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid?fbclid=IwAR12f1P2chQDjLJuCh-cri0WQYvvDi7yPu978t7e5Qpr6ina-IueSZnvXG8#status-of-covid-19

[joebean]

22 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

That wasn’t the trigger. It’s simple physics. Crash your car at 40 and you are less likely to end up in ITU. This keeps ITU beds free. It reduces impact and burden at a critical time.

the interesting thing is this is an acceptance by COMIN that speed has a key part to play in casualty reduction. On a sustained public protection argument, let alone article 2 obligations, it is difficult to reconcile how they can evidentially reinstate derestriction. 

I’d advocated a drop to 60. I was surprised, but a,so impressed when they dropped it to 40. It showed some real lateral thinking.

A few years back there was a very flawed public “consultation” regarding an all-Island speed limit. I suspect that attitudes have changed a bit since then and a proper consultation might reflect less opposition to it. The current 40 mph all-Island limit may be temporary but I the experience of it may well have long- term implications. Unrestricted roads are not easy to justify particularly when personal responsibility and judgement is either ignored or defective so often. I see a 60 mph national limit on the horizon.

[TheTeapot]

21 minutes ago, boswellian said:

Just wondering how present situation is justified considering this As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK     https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid?fbclid=IwAR12f1P2chQDjLJuCh-cri0WQYvvDi7yPu978t7e5Qpr6ina-IueSZnvXG8#status-of-covid-19

An awful lot of people who keep posting this across the internet don't know what it means, using bloody facebook for their 'science'.

Edited March 28, 2020 by TheTeapot

[Langweilig]

I Googled the worldwide coronavirus cases this morning. If the figures for the Isle of Man are correct, you have 29 confirmed cases and so far, no deaths.  I hope nobody on the island dies from this awful virus.

[woolley]

2 hours ago, pongo said:

What are you writing? Kind of thing ...

Usually human relationship stories. Life, love, betrayal. It's fun to play God in a world you invent. 

[doc.fixit]

the figures are not the true picture! They are only confirmed cases, ie. folk who have been tested and proved infected.

The true figure of folk who have the virus is much, much higher in my opinion but can not be proved and even the death figure is not accurate because every death is not tested to see cause of death.

[woolley]

4 minutes ago, doc.fixit said:

the figures are not the true picture! They are only confirmed cases, ie. folk who have been tested and proved infected.

The true figure of folk who have the virus is much, much higher in my opinion but can not be proved and even the death figure is not accurate because every death is not tested to see cause of death.

It also works both ways because the virus is being implicated in cases where the patient was seriously ill with comorbidities and close to death in any event. 

[Roger Mexico]

52 minutes ago, boswellian said:

Just wondering how present situation is justified considering this As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK     https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid?fbclid=IwAR12f1P2chQDjLJuCh-cri0WQYvvDi7yPu978t7e5Qpr6ina-IueSZnvXG8#status-of-covid-19

We've already discussed this on this topic, but the the point is that HCIDs are particular types of diseases that kill a high percentage of those they infect.  COVID-19 turned out not to be like that (mortality is maybe around 1%) but is actually more deadly than diseases that are.

It was initially put on the list  because they didn't know much of the details and typology of the disease and so it was best to be cautious.  After all SARS is on that list and that's a closely-related virus (technically we should really be calling the coronavirus SARS-2 instead). 

This virus isn't as deadly at an individual level as that but spreads much more easily, so it already has been responsible for many more times the number of deaths.  The SARS outbreak had a mortality of 10% while this one may only be around 1%, but SARS was responsible for 774 deaths and the latest deaths from the COVID-19 is 28,376 and that may have increased by the time you read.

(That's mainly what I posted on Tuesday but I've updated the deaths as they've increased by over 11,000)

[boswellian]

8 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

We've already discussed this on this topic, but the the point is that HCIDs are particular types of diseases that kill a high percentage of those they infect.  COVID-19 turned out not to be like that (mortality is maybe around 1%) but is actually more deadly than diseases that are.

It was initially put on the list  because they didn't know much of the details and typology of the disease and so it was best to be cautious.  After all SARS is on that list and that's a closely-related virus (technically we should really be calling the coronavirus SARS-2 instead). 

This virus isn't as deadly at an individual level as that but spreads much more easily, so it already has been responsible for many more times the number of deaths.  The SARS outbreak had a mortality of 10% while this one may only be around 1%, but SARS was responsible for 774 deaths and the latest deaths from the COVID-19 is 28,376 and that may have increased by the time you read.

(That's mainly what I posted on Tuesday but I've updated the deaths as they've increased by over 11,000)

Are the death statistics taken from those who died with COVID 19 or those who died of it? And can you supply details of autopsy results which confirm this?

[Roger Mexico]

7 minutes ago, woolley said:

It also works both ways because the virus is being implicated in cases where the patient was seriously ill with comorbidities and close to death in any event. 

But there's two sorts of missed deaths here.  One will be those die outside hospital and fail to be tested properly.  But there's also people who are dying in hospital with other conditions who also have COVID-19.  Some of those may not be classified as deaths from that either, but it's a good question even there if the virus was the straw that broke the camel's back and they might have survived if it wasn't for the infection.

There's a lot of self-reassurance going around where people are telling themselves that the vast majority of those dying are on the verge of dying anyway.  But you can't base this on people having 'pre-existing conditions' because that includes all sorts of things that people can live with for many decades, such as diabetes or high blood pressure.  If you're on tablets for something (and a lot of people are) you've got a pre-existing condition and many others will be classified that way as well.

That's even before you consider those who don't die from COVID-19 but will die because of it due to not getting the best medical care (as we saw in the figures from Bergamo).

[woolley]

All of that is true,  but it is easy to overstate the case. It will undoubtedly be true that the virus will have broken the camel's back in some cases of comorbidity. There will be some of those who would otherwise have lived considerably longer. There will be many others who would not. Those dying untreated would presumably be recorded with the virus as cause of death.  

Edited March 28, 2020 by woolley

[Uhtred]

2 hours ago, GD4ELI said:

Doing it in the woods?

With the Pope..?

[Amadeus]

Had to do a supply run yesterday and everything seems very civilised and fine. Two observations though: nobody's wearing face masks and I'd love to see the checkout shields (4 minutes into the video) here as they seem like a simple and cheap way to protect staff.

https://youtu.be/9dKdSt6-vHA   

 

[Amadeus]

For anyone stuck at home, I've put the live stream back up. Will let it run until the phone dies