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Coronavirus Isle of Man


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Testing is great. Brilliant. Keep it up. 

But it won't stop the spread of the infection (significantly) until you test people with zero symptoms on a massive scale. Which would be extremely difficult to fund and organise.

There's another way testing could help (the economy). Is there a test which will say, "you did have covid19, but now you don't. you can safely return to society"?

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12 minutes ago, Mr Shoe said:

Testing is great. Brilliant. Keep it up. 

But it won't stop the spread of the infection (significantly) until you test people with zero symptoms on a massive scale. Which would be extremely difficult to fund and organise.

There's another way testing could help (the economy). Is there a test which will say, "you did have covid19, but now you don't. you can safely return to society"?

Isnt that the antibody test Jersey have opted for?

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4 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Yeah that average 5.2 days figure is very dubious

That's not inconsistent with the other data.  According to this article there's been three, admittedly small, studies and they've all come up with similar figures.  The median incubation period is around 5 days - that is half of the people who had it will show symptoms before then.  But many will take longer.  The 95% range in one study was 2.2 to 11.5 days - note that this isn't symmetrical around the 5 day, those that take time showing symptoms are taking a lot of time.  And 5% of cases will lie outside that as well, which is why 14 days seems a good cut off.

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Soz guys - replying to Notail but you beat me to the next post.

Yup, but UK Public Health are saying that as yet they have no evidence its reliable. Plus of course there's no evidence that you're immune if you've had it.

Edited by piebaps
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Have they released any information about their new on island testing lab? Would be interested to know how many pcr machines they have and how many tests each machine can run simultaneously? Perhaps of more interest would be how many people we have a nobles that are qualified to be doing the tests. Doing PCR to the accuracy and reliability that is required for these tests is not easy and to be honest I'm not sure I would trust a result from Nobles.

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This 99 year old woman ( born on the island) is  the oldest recovered in the UK -

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8183957/Bramhall-great-grandmother-99-oldest-Briton-beat-coronavirus.html

 

I wonder if there is something to the blood-type suggestion -

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/blood-type-a-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8122493/People-Type-blood-likely-catch-coronavirus.html

I remember this from a few years ago  -

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/british-urgently-want-the-blood-of-irish-people-1.1890761

I think type O is the most common bloodtype in Ireland, Scotland, Norway etc. Is it in the Island? (both the traditional population and modern?).

I found these but haven't gone through them propery yet. -

" ABO and Rh(D) blood groups in the Isle of Man from the island's blood donor panel of 1,657 .  -  From comparisons with populations surrounding the Irish Sea it appears that the Manx diverge in ABO frequencies and even more markedly in the Rh system. The largest differences found are those from Irish populations. "

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2801250?seq=1

http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/8171/1/8171_5171.PDF?UkUDh:CyT

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/soc.culture.celtic/12OZYAP-0DY

" ABO phenotype frequencies in 2056 blood donors from the period 1946-1950 were compared with those found in the live donor panel of 1971 (n = 1657). In this 21 year interval the ABO distributions had changed, P < 0.02, there being a decrease in group A and a compensatory increase in B. The incidence of O phenotype remained constant. It is suggested that the most plausible explanation of this change is the marked immigration to the Island since 1950 principally from other parts of the British Isles. Additionally, the 1950 data, subdivided for increasing Manxness employing surname analysis, were compared with an indigenous sample of 1971 but no differences in the proportions of ABO groups were detected. However, significantly different ABO frequencies occurred among donor and non-donor samples in this 1971 series and possible explanations were discussed."

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/15747831_Variations_in_blood_group_frequencies_in_a_single_population_The_Isle_of_Man

 

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16 minutes ago, piebaps said:

Plus of course there's no evidence that you're immune if you've had it.

Or that you cannot pass on new bugs you pick to others? On your hands eg., you touch something a non immune picks it up and they get ill?

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47 minutes ago, Mr Shoe said:

Testing is great. Brilliant. Keep it up. 

But it won't stop the spread of the infection (significantly) until you test people with zero symptoms on a massive scale. Which would be extremely difficult to fund and organise.

There's another way testing could help (the economy). Is there a test which will say, "you did have covid19, but now you don't. you can safely return to society"?

Good in theory, but what if it is wrong? What if this really is a mutating virus that can  bite you a second tome? How would the non-recovered masses react? All trying to get infected, pretending they have it. Simply, cannot do it. Those whom recover must believe they can get it again until the real risk is all but over. 

 

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Tim Glover fucking bleating to the Chief Minister at the Press Briefings makes me feel like he is Whinging fucking spoilt kid at school snitching for what he has heard by someone in his class.

I am not saying he is wrong but if he knows all the things that are wrongfully happening why doesn’t he use the official telephone number to report such issues as opposed to wanting to be a sensationalist whinging twat.

Dim fucker.

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An anti body rest has not the efficacy to be used at the mo. A vaccine is said to be June at the earliest.

Complacency is our worst problem, people need to see reasons to continue to isolate/distance.

''Unfortunately''1, our test returns are not too drastic? About 90% negative? That will not help in a short time to keep us all observing the rules?

1. That is, to counter the  complacency.

Tim Glover e-mailed HQ about the case that he raised at the conference. Not such a Dim Fucker''???

Edited by Kopek
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