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2 minutes ago, pongo said:

 It's not Zimbabwe @Albert Tatlock . Zimbabwe failed to control money supply.
 

That was me, I think. It was an illustration of the consequences of trying to dupe the markets into thinking you ARE in control when you are not. As I said, you can up to a point, but QE is not the panacea of all ills.

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Press Release from the Rob Vine Fund   Following the cessation of Motor Sport on the Isle of Man in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic the Directors of the Rob Vine Fund, Registered Charity No.954

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly) I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers

There's a lot of difficult concepts and difficult decisions being made here.  I'll have a go at a further explanation.  Possible long post ahead. First the difference between 'public health' and

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7 minutes ago, woolley said:

That was me, I think. It was an illustration of the consequences of trying to dupe the markets into thinking you ARE in control when you are not. As I said, you can up to a point, but QE is not the panacea of all ills.

Thanks for the correction.

Provided that the money supply is (if necessary) controlled via taxation there is no issue with creating liquidity.

That transfer of wealth (which Phillip mentioned) back to the country can happen by ensuring that the burden of taxation is picked up by those sectors which can best afford it. Especially if they are actually doing well out the crisis.

So far spending seems to be up in many sectors.

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If we dig in deep now and properly self isolate, then have no new cases for 14 days (bearing in mind our on Island testing is nearly online) then we can hopefully see some awakening of the local economy. There will be some areas where this is limited because supply chains are closed down (e.g. building supplies). But others can get going again, as long as we keep the border tight, as proposed. 

Our strategic picture can’t change until the UK picture does. Some tough calls ahead, but there is a hierarchical set of priorities. Minimize risk to life, and maximize economic rebirth opportunities are likely numbers 1 and 2 

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The whole point of 'flattening the curve' is to keep demand below NHS capacity.

So raise the capacity of the NHS and begin to relax restrictions.

It will cost a lot less than lock-down stretching on for months and months. 

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1 hour ago, Phillip Dearden said:

The W's have a point here. While Pongo is right to say that the UK Government can create money this is not the creation of wealth [it just diverts more of that wealth to government]. Real production is the goods and services produced by people going to work. That must be much diminished by lockdown. This will have an effect on on private consumption and also on government services. Less taxes (or the funding of loan repayments) mean either reduced volume or quantity of health and education services. In the long run this means the well-being of people is diminished and in some cases lives will be lost - less cash for NHS must somewhere mean fewer kidney machines and heart ops ie lives will be shortened.

To balance this cost against the CV threat is very hard  but to say it should not be done is naive. To add to this balance don't we have to consider that we don't want lockdown to be too effective. Imagine an extreme position,  if we totally lockdown and prevent anyone getting the  bug, we seem to save lives but the population would then be very vulnerable to a new outbreak. At the other extreme, no lockdown and letting the bug race through the population would also be very harmful. There must be an optimal rate of release into the population that allows us to build resilience into the population whilst keeping acute care demand down to what is feasible given the NHS's scarce resources (mainly the skill and time of people). That was easy to say but how you determine that optimal rate of release of bug to population, this will be very difficult. 

We then have to combine balancing the bug-release rate with the economic effects of lockdown and come up with a route forward that maximises the well-being of the population as a whole in the  long-run. This is what we expect our politicians to do and it seems a very hard job to me.    

In both the UK and the IOM I see people turning to the question of when will lockdown end and how much economic harm can we cope with. I am not seeing many well thought through answers - but that is to be expected, we have not been here before.

That paragraph is the nail on the head! Spot on. It is not about lockdown or no lockdown, it about the balance between the two and the timing of such.

I have spent the last six weeks modelling various scenarios for our business (we own and operate a number of Care Homes) even to the extent of writing up some algorithms (gave up in the end, too many variables) but one thing came out strongly - it is not about 'Hide or Herd' (H2H as I call it) - it is about the ratio of H2H, the timing of H2H, but above all, having different H2H graphs for different sections of the populace (In our case Staff, Residents, Managers and Directors).

In all likelihood, despite all of our planning, we will probably be dictated to by events in the end. Our best case scenario is that we have a gentle H2H 'ripple' amongst staff first, that then gently spreads to service users, and that we are through the bulk before November. Winters are considerably more difficult in a care home than are summers, not just because of infection rates, but also genuine cabin fever / anxiety (especially amongst those with Mental Illness). I almost sigh with relief at the first sign of spring each year when the doors to the garden / local area are thrown open - but this year the timing could not be worse in that respect - Covid lockdown just as we should be opening up. Let's hope that we get some break from it before autumn.

The idea of entering next winter with no herd protection of either staff or residents fills me with dread.

I can only pray that we do not have a bad H2H curve whereby we have it rapidly spreading through service users but with the staff all going down at the same time - not helped by the fact that 3 out of the 4 senior managers are themselves highly vulnerable and already 'shielding' for 12 weeks!

Shutting off the Island for a year is totally naive imho.

 

 

Edited by Manximus Aururaneus
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2 minutes ago, The Lurker said:

So raise the capacity of the NHS and begin to relax restrictions.

Have you watched any of the BBC reports about the reality of life for medical staff working on a Covid ward?

Trying to do their jobs working in teams whilst wearing full protective gear.

We don't want more of that. We want this thing beaten

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2 minutes ago, pongo said:

Have you watched any of the BBC reports about the reality of life for medical staff working on a Covid ward?

Trying to do their jobs working in teams whilst wearing full protective gear.

We don't want more of that. We want this thing beaten

I'm well aware of the conditions and that is exactly my point.

Increase resources, better PPE, more staff, more space, stop time wasters from abusing the NHS, pay staff properly.

All will make it much easier to fight Covid 19, and 20 and 21 etc........

And probably cost less than locking everyone up for months on end.

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The Villa-Gaiety have said they're not opening til at least october. Being operated by Gov that would suggest that things are not going to get better for quite some time yet.

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6 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

The Villa-Gaiety have said they're not opening til at least october. Being operated by Gov that would suggest that things are not going to get better for quite some time yet.

It's not quite as bad as that - they've said they they are cancelling all events up to the end of September (from the e-mail):

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We are very sorry to have to announce that we have been advised by the Minister for the Department of Education, Sport and Culture (DESC) that all scheduled performances and events at VillaGaiety, scheduled up to the end of September 2020 can no longer go ahead as planned. This decision, has not been an easy one, however, it has been made in line with current social distancing guidelines to delay the spread of COVID-19 in the coming months. Due to lead times associated with booking and preparing shows the decision has therefore been made to not schedule any events before 1st October 2020

Obviously a lot of that will be due to cancellation terms of the shows that are appearing there - presumably the nearer the time of performance, the bigger the fee.  Hopefully if the crisis abates there may be some last minute things scheduled, but it doesn't look good generally.

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I think that is a disgusting thing to say stinking, he is doing really well and well prepared to answer the questions posed to him by the media, even the ones that are stupid and have been answered before.   He has come over on top of his job in crazy circumstances.    Constant criticism of people who are really doing their best is pathetic.

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46 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

The Villa-Gaiety have said they're not opening til at least october. Being operated by Gov that would suggest that things are not going to get better for quite some time yet.

Good. At least some of the fleas in the Gaiety will have died of starvation by then.

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15 minutes ago, hissingsid said:

I think that is a disgusting thing to say stinking, he is doing really well and well prepared to answer the questions posed to him by the media, even the ones that are stupid and have been answered before.   He has come over on top of his job in crazy circumstances.    Constant criticism of people who are really doing their best is pathetic.

I agree.  Mr Ashford has handled himself very well having not long taken over the role. 

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