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Coronavirus Isle of Man


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1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

Yeah i've done that today. Got up and put amaretto in my coffee. Drunk before 12. Fuck.

I’m sitting here with a dirty chai. Homemade. Choose life! :D

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Press Release from the Rob Vine Fund   Following the cessation of Motor Sport on the Isle of Man in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic the Directors of the Rob Vine Fund, Registered Charity No.954

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly) I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers

There's a lot of difficult concepts and difficult decisions being made here.  I'll have a go at a further explanation.  Possible long post ahead. First the difference between 'public health' and

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11 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Good. At least some of the fleas in the Gaiety will have died of starvation by then.

Nah; it'll be like the mice when the miners went back in 1985. They (the mice) turned cannibal while there was no food during the strike and they ended up with super-mice that were hard as nails. 

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1 hour ago, pongo said:

The answer for the IOM seems perhaps less complicated. Local trade could presumably start fairly quickly once there are no new cases. And provided the border remains closed.

It's here, live, up and running - it isn't going to go away and it's something, preferably with a vaccine, that 'we' are going to have to live with as mankind does already with many terrible diseases (largely ignored or forgotten by 'us' as the majority of them aren't in our backyard).  'No new cases' is an impossibility now.

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1 hour ago, woolley said:

What is the endgame in that case? Why not a third lockdown, then a fourth? Are we looking at an additional cyclical predator like the seasonal flu but with more bells and whistles? I have seen scientists writing along these lines where eventually we just have to take it on the chin and accept that there is one more killer in our midst that will take a proportion of the population on each pass, just like the flu does, with eventual vaccines mitigating.

I don't know the answer Woolley and neither, I suspect, do the scientists at the moment. If they did we wouldn't be having this conversation. As I said, no one yet knows how many are immune, which is the core plank of the herd immunity theory. Until we know from others' experiences I think we should be cautious about opening the gates.  

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This is interesting, from a British guy says he's in Wuhan as reported on the Guardian live blog today

Quote

What you’ve seen happen today is the ‘exit door’ open to allow thousands of people who have been trapped in Wuhan for 76 days to finally go home.

Life for residents of Wuhan is still more restricted than UK’s so-called lockdown. Each district is controlled by its own local authority so it’s not entirely uniform but the basics are the same.

To leave the community residence you need a green health code via an app on your phone. This is tied to your Chinese ID card and logs who you are and where you are. Your temperature is also taken.

To use the limited public transport you also need to log in and out using the app. Foreigners don’t have an ID card so they can’t use it.

Anyone returning to work also needs a special certificate verifying that the business has been given permission to restart. Otherwise you’re expected to return to your home within two hours.

Restaurants, cafes, stores, anywhere that people might gather are still closed. I can get to the supermarket five minutes walk from my apartment block, that’s all.

One hour a day exercise? No way.

So nobody should be mistaken that life in Wuhan is back to normal. And people in the UK need to think about what lockdown really means.

 

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1 hour ago, hissingsid said:

I think that is a disgusting thing to say stinking, he is doing really well and well prepared to answer the questions posed to him by the media, even the ones that are stupid and have been answered before.   He has come over on top of his job in crazy circumstances.    Constant criticism of people who are really doing their best is pathetic.

Behave sid. At one point he was wistfully reminiscing about his 12 years at the sharp end of manx politics  as if he was on desert island discs or something.

Edited by the stinking enigma
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30 minutes ago, hissingsid said:

 Constant criticism of people who are really doing their best is pathetic.

It's a general point rather than aimed at Ashford (who on the whole has done quite well) but 'doing their best' is not good enough.  We're not nursery teachers encouraging small children, we're trying to assess the performance of well-paid adults doing a job they have accepted and have lots of other well-paid people supporting them.  The question isn't just whether they are up to the job, but also whether they have the skills to cope with the unexpected and to assess what advice they are given.  They also should be able to admit mistakes when they are made and learn from them.  Hopefully learn from other countries' mistakes as well.

42 minutes ago, chancer said:

I agree.  Mr Ashford has handled himself very well having not long taken over the role. 

He's actually been DHSC Minister for two years and three months today (Happy 9/4ths anniversary David!).  He really should have begun to work things out by now.

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10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It's a general point rather than aimed at Ashford (who on the whole has done quite well) but 'doing their best' is not good enough.  We're not nursery teachers encouraging small children, we're trying to assess the performance of well-paid adults doing a job they have accepted and have lots of other well-paid people supporting them.  The question isn't just whether they are up to the job, but also whether they have the skills to cope with the unexpected and to assess what advice they are given.  They also should be able to admit mistakes when they are made and learn from them.  Hopefully learn from other countries' mistakes as well.

He's actually been DHSC Minister for two years and three months today (Happy 9/4ths anniversary David!).  He really should have begun to work things out by now.

I meant taking over as lead spokesperson.
I see you want us now to select our politicians for the skills to deal with all events whether we have control or experience of them, or not. How do we get visas for this ideal world you live in? 

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1 hour ago, hissingsid said:

I think that is a disgusting thing to say stinking, he is doing really well and well prepared to answer the questions posed to him by the media, even the ones that are stupid and have been answered before.   He has come over on top of his job in crazy circumstances.    Constant criticism of people who are really doing their best is pathetic.

A bit like you on the Manx Radio thread Sid? :D

https://www.manxforums.com/forums/index.php?/topic/11182-manx-radio/page/392/

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39 minutes ago, chancer said:

I meant taking over as lead spokesperson.
I see you want us now to select our politicians for the skills to deal with all events whether we have control or experience of them, or not. How do we get visas for this ideal world you live in? 

But Ashford has been 'lead spokesperson' on the outbreak since back in February - and rightly so as Health Minister.  Quayle only started getting involved later when TT was cancelled and so on and then decided he ought to take over.  As usual it's taking a bad idea from the UK and being even worse at it.

You may not have read my comment properly as I said politicians should "have the skills to cope with the unexpected and to assess what advice they are given".  It's really part of the job description (and for senior civil servants as well).  Life is full of the unexpected and running a country means assessing the 'known unknowns' and coping with the 'unknown unknowns' when they happen.

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They've been doing ok altogether. With hindsight we'll say there's room for improvement. But the next 4 - 6 weeks will be critical. Get the cases down and get the economy open. 

Howard - 6/10

Ashford - 8/10

Cannan - 9/10 

Allinson - 6/10 (but he's only joined the  battle recently) 

 

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1 hour ago, Andy Onchan said:

I don't know the answer Woolley and neither, I suspect, do the scientists at the moment. If they did we wouldn't be having this conversation. As I said, no one yet knows how many are immune, which is the core plank of the herd immunity theory. Until we know from others' experiences I think we should be cautious about opening the gates.  

The plan to keep the cases in the NHS down until there is a vaccine. 18 months of slightly reducing and increasing restrictions and staying in if you are at risk. You may decide that it isn’t worth it economically. 

Edited by Patient centred
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