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1 hour ago, Sentience said:

Something for your consideration.

Back in the 50's and early 60's we played in the dirt, worst we got was worms! Drank the river water and played in it on camping trips in Tromode. Shared tin bath water with siblings cos the immersion heater was too expensive to use. Shared 'Chewy'. We were 'mucky', outdoors all the time, and happy with simpler things

Disinfectant was only ever used if someone was actually ill.

These days in most modern homes everything, including the KIDS are under the influence of some kind of disinfectant almost all the time, giving them no chance at all of building up immunity to all sorts of illneses...Naturally.

Maybe we've all become too clean with nothing in our immune systems to even remotely help at times like these.

But hey, who knows

 

 

 

There's a lot of old gits popping off too. Mustn't have eaten enough worms .

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1 hour ago, Sentience said:

Something for your consideration.

Back in the 50's and early 60's we played in the dirt, worst we got was worms! Drank the river water and played in it on camping trips in Tromode. Shared tin bath water with siblings cos the immersion heater was too expensive to use. Shared 'Chewy'. We were 'mucky', outdoors all the time, and happy with simpler things

Disinfectant was only ever used if someone was actually ill.

These days in most modern homes everything, including the KIDS are under the influence of some kind of disinfectant almost all the time, giving them no chance at all of building up immunity to all sorts of illneses...Naturally.

Maybe we've all become too clean with nothing in our immune systems to even remotely help at times like these.

But hey, who knows

 

 

 

Did you eat bats?

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2 hours ago, On The Bus said:

The claims about establishing a camp may actually not be too far off the truth.

Based on what? The logistics would be horrendous, bloody expensive and a source of new infection. They aren't potentially hostile aliens in time of war. They are sick people who need treating as close as possible to their families where it is easiest to access supplies and personnel. If they really did want to put them in a rural setting there are plenty of places on the big island opposite. Just so many hangups to do something like that here that it bears no scrutiny at all.

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1 hour ago, Sentience said:

Something for your consideration.

Back in the 50's and early 60's we played in the dirt, worst we got was worms! Drank the river water and played in it on camping trips in Tromode. Shared tin bath water with siblings cos the immersion heater was too expensive to use. Shared 'Chewy'. We were 'mucky', outdoors all the time, and happy with simpler things

Disinfectant was only ever used if someone was actually ill.

These days in most modern homes everything, including the KIDS are under the influence of some kind of disinfectant almost all the time, giving them no chance at all of building up immunity to all sorts of illneses...Naturally.

Maybe we've all become too clean with nothing in our immune systems to even remotely help at times like these.

But hey, who knows

 

 

 

When I did my degree in Bacteriology that was taught as standard that too much cleanliness does not enable you to build up  immunity to infections from bacteria, however viral immunity is totally different , some infections with a virus leads to immunity for life but others like coronavirus does not , common colds are are caused by the same type of virus but you get it over and over again

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14 minutes ago, alpha-acid said:

When I did my degree in Bacteriology that was taught as standard that too much cleanliness does not enable you to build up  immunity to infections from bacteria, however viral immunity is totally different , some infections with a virus leads to immunity for life but others like coronavirus does not , common colds are are caused by the same type of virus but you get it over and over again

I think the problem is that at the moment science is not sure which of those categories this virus falls into. Some are fearing that it could be another seasonal cycling infection with minor mutations like colds and flu but more serious, while others are clinging to the hope that it's the type that can be controlled by a once and done vaccine. I reckon we'll soon know.

I see China has temporarily banned wildlife markets, and the UN has called for a permanent global ban. Bolted horse door stable much.

 

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My aged memory is different .I don’t remember this  wonderful  time  in the  1950’s when children didn’t get seriously ill or this fond  belief that their immune systems coped so wonderfully well  with such things “naturally “.

However, I do remember kids getting ill  frequently with all manner of things and a clear memory of  how savagely  and permanently withered the legs of the survivors of polio were  frequently left.

 

 

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I'm  not so sure Woolley. A third of the initial patients had no contact with the market at all and the WHO aren't sure where or when it started or how the transfer from animal to human occurred. It wasn't however from eating bats, bumming bats or being bummed by bats........................your Honour.

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8 hours ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

UK Care home figures are not included in the daily figures but are included in the weekly ones - All Care Home deaths are reported to the Care Quality Commission within 24 hours and always have been (it's one of a number of mandatory reporting events) i.e. It is not something that could ever be truly covered up as per some media reports.

That''s true of course, but even there is the possibility of under-reporting.  Not of the death of course, but of the causes.  There seems to be little testing of care home residents done in England and Wales[1] either if they fall ill or indeed post-mortem, so doctors, who are currently unwilling to visit in person, may not want to certify involvement of COVID-19 in deaths.  There may also be unwillingness of nursing home management to admit that a resident has or had the disease without proof.  So many residents may be dying in nursing home without diagnosis and without COVID-19 appearing on the death certificates. 

Of course many people die in nursing homes in the normal course of events (about 22% of all deaths this year so far), so extra deaths caused wholly or in part by the virus may easily be missed.  The same may also be true of those who die at home, especially if there aren't family members there to insist on a proper diagnosis.  But the media criticism (of which there hasn't really been enough) is actually directed at the daily NHS figures and how they deliberately miss all such deaths from the totals.

The weekly figures are of course those the ONS produce for England and Wales - a weekly analysis of deaths registered.  For the last two issues they have also been doing figures for all deaths where COVID-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate.  The latest release issued on Tuesday:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

shows the COVID-19 now taking off (though there were hints of it last week) with more deaths being registered in that week than any time since 2000.  But there are two problems with these figures.  The first is that they are only for registrations up to 3 April, so nearly two weeks in arrears before you consider other factors.

The second is that all these figures are based on date of registration rather than date of death.  The last time they examined  the way these were related in 2018, there was a median lag of 5 days before registration and this was increasing.   And of course the current situation, with lockdowns and offices being shut and medical facilities stretched, means that a lot of registrations may be delayed longer than normal.  Especially as alternative methods of registration (such as Tynwald has just put into effect here) won't have been started then. So hardly any of the deaths included will be from April and many that occurred at the end of March won't be either.

The second of these factors is not really taken into account in the ONS publication.  In normal times (and this is produced every week) this won't make a lot of difference.  The mix of causes of deaths will remain roughly the same from week to week and comparing to the same week in previous years will deal with seasonal factors.  But because NHS are also now producing daily totals of deaths from COVID-19 and they are then trying to match up this figure with the number of deaths reported as to that date, the difference will be significant when the COVID-19 death rates were increasing significantly on a daily basis and even 5 days will make a big difference

So the report says: Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 14, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes. This ties is roughly with the daily figures up to that date and implies that there are comparatively few deaths outside hospitals.  It also suggests that registration of deaths in hospital happens fairly quickly.  But later there is a quote:

Quote

The latest comparable data for deaths involving COVID-19 with a date of death up to 3 April, show there were 6,235 deaths in England and Wales. When looking at data for England, this is 15% higher than the NHS numbers as they include all mentions of COVID-19 on the death certificate, including suspected COVID-19, as well as deaths in the community.

But this isn't 15% but 50% more than the NHS numbers and it suggests that there are many more deaths outside hospitals that have been registered since 3 April.  And of course that's before you look at deaths where COVID-19 has been missed.  The fact there are around 6000 'excess' deaths for that week alone suggests there may be many of these. 

 

[1]  Scotland and Northern Ireland more so, and the it's clear that the UK government are not happy with the former's attempts to get more representative figures.

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4 hours ago, hampsterkahn said:

My aged memory is different .I don’t remember this  wonderful  time  in the  1950’s when children didn’t get seriously ill or this fond  belief that their immune systems coped so wonderfully well  with such things “naturally “.

However, I do remember kids getting ill  frequently with all manner of things and a clear memory of  how savagely  and permanently withered the legs of the survivors of polio were  frequently left.

 

 

We must have been the 'Lucky Gang'

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10 hours ago, the stinking enigma said:

 Can they only navigate by towns?

surprised they didn't end up on the isle of wight.

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10 hours ago, Sentience said:

Something for your consideration.

Back in the 50's and early 60's we played in the dirt, worst we got was worms! Drank the river water and played in it on camping trips in Tromode. Shared tin bath water with siblings cos the immersion heater was too expensive to use. Shared 'Chewy'. We were 'mucky', outdoors all the time, and happy with simpler things

Disinfectant was only ever used if someone was actually ill.

These days in most modern homes everything, including the KIDS are under the influence of some kind of disinfectant almost all the time, giving them no chance at all of building up immunity to all sorts of illneses...Naturally.

Maybe we've all become too clean with nothing in our immune systems to even remotely help at times like these.

But hey, who knows

 

 

 

In fact it was the germ-free environment of the trenches that caused Spanish Flu in 1918.

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Actually it wasn't - it hit those in camps including many on their way to the trenches - its origin is still unknown, possibly in large camps in USA or the very large Allied UK/French supply depot at Etables but if you have a better theory please publish it

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3 minutes ago, Frances said:

Actually it wasn't - it hit those in camps including many on their way to the trenches - its origin is still unknown, possibly in large camps in USA or the very large Allied UK/French supply depot at Etables but if you have a better theory please publish it

I was being sarcastic.

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5 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

That''s true of course, but even there is the possibility of under-reporting.  Not of the death of course, but of the causes.  There seems to be little testing of care home residents done in England and Wales[1] either if they fall ill or indeed post-mortem, so doctors, who are currently unwilling to visit in person, may not want to certify involvement of COVID-19 in deaths.  There may also be unwillingness of nursing home management to admit that a resident has or had the disease without proof.  So many residents may be dying in nursing home without diagnosis and without COVID-19 appearing on the death certificates. 

Of course many people die in nursing homes in the normal course of events (about 22% of all deaths this year so far), so extra deaths caused wholly or in part by the virus may easily be missed.  The same may also be true of those who die at home, especially if there aren't family members there to insist on a proper diagnosis.  But the media criticism (of which there hasn't really been enough) is actually directed at the daily NHS figures and how they deliberately miss all such deaths from the totals.

The weekly figures are of course those the ONS produce for England and Wales - a weekly analysis of deaths registered.  For the last two issues they have also been doing figures for all deaths where COVID-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate.  The latest release issued on Tuesday:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

shows the COVID-19 now taking off (though there were hints of it last week) with more deaths being registered in that week than any time since 2000.  But there are two problems with these figures.  The first is that they are only for registrations up to 3 April, so nearly two weeks in arrears before you consider other factors.

The second is that all these figures are based on date of registration rather than date of death.  The last time they examined  the way these were related in 2018, there was a median lag of 5 days before registration and this was increasing.   And of course the current situation, with lockdowns and offices being shut and medical facilities stretched, means that a lot of registrations may be delayed longer than normal.  Especially as alternative methods of registration (such as Tynwald has just put into effect here) won't have been started then. So hardly any of the deaths included will be from April and many that occurred at the end of March won't be either.

The second of these factors is not really taken into account in the ONS publication.  In normal times (and this is produced every week) this won't make a lot of difference.  The mix of causes of deaths will remain roughly the same from week to week and comparing to the same week in previous years will deal with seasonal factors.  But because NHS are also now producing daily totals of deaths from COVID-19 and they are then trying to match up this figure with the number of deaths reported as to that date, the difference will be significant when the COVID-19 death rates were increasing significantly on a daily basis and even 5 days will make a big difference

So the report says: Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 14, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes. This ties is roughly with the daily figures up to that date and implies that there are comparatively few deaths outside hospitals.  It also suggests that registration of deaths in hospital happens fairly quickly.  But later there is a quote:

But this isn't 15% but 50% more than the NHS numbers and it suggests that there are many more deaths outside hospitals that have been registered since 3 April.  And of course that's before you look at deaths where COVID-19 has been missed.  The fact there are around 6000 'excess' deaths for that week alone suggests there may be many of these. 

 

[1]  Scotland and Northern Ireland more so, and the it's clear that the UK government are not happy with the former's attempts to get more representative figures.

The synic in me says that most governments only tell you what you think you should know. That's why I find the German stats unbelievable.

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