Jump to content
Coronavirus topics renamed and some locked. No new topics. ×
Manx Forums, Live Chat, Blogs & Classifieds for the Isle of Man
On The Bus

Coronavirus Isle of Man

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, woolley said:

They undoubtedly will, but they will have modelled various scenarios, and they will have an "acceptable" level of cases that the services can cope with. Beyond that, they will bring some restrictions back in to regulate it downwards again, then repeat.

Yeah, that's why there is the difference here in the lockdown being on til next Friday and the state of emergency til halfway through May. They'll be modelling what they can reasonably away with. I fully expect our lockdown to be extended a couple more weeks yet, and am happy for that to happen, even though I really want to go back to work. Hopefully we'll be tracking what is going on in those other countries, Spain and Italy are still recording daily 3% rises in diagnosed cases, and confirmed deaths around 30% down on what they were at their peak. Maybe those are acceptable figures, who knows?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

The German figures are quite believable to me. And they're not unique, there are other countries such as Austria and Australia that seem to have done quite well in keeping deaths down so far.  Or have done well by restricting the area of outbreak, such as China or South Korea.   Even when countries are closely linked such as the UK and Ireland, there may be differences, which is what you would expect if they are following different policies as that article shows.

There are always going to be two competing forces on the accuracy of statistics.  Doctors, scientists and statisticians are going to want them to be as accurate as possible, for self-respect but also professional reputation.  Politicians, business people are going to want what suits them personally at that particular moment.  Open societies like Germany are more likely to respect the former.

I just don't see Germany being any different to UK to be honest. But I do wonder how they are registering the deaths and if it's consistent.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

I just don't see Germany being any different to UK to be honest. But I do wonder how they are registering the deaths and if it's consistent.

They simply got in first and nicked all the ventilators and masks - comes from decades of practice with deckchairs and beach towels.

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're not fucking Germany, We're not fucking Spain or Italy. Or England or Sweden or anywhere else.

The Isle of Man is a small Island (duh) and we should have an absolute grip on this thing.
 

Where did the 25 people confirmed today catch this?

Fuck knows. It just happened like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Manximus Aururaneus said:

Roger,

There is much in your post that I agree with (most pertinently being that there is likely to be under-reporting than over). There is nothing that I strongly disagree with other than the fact that the post shows the danger of extrapolating minutely detailed data (e.g. 90.2% etc.) from basic assumptions which are not in fact true (not your fault).

I'm very busy at the moment but I'll give a couple of examples to demonstrate the above;

1. Base claim. "so doctors, who are currently unwilling to visit in person, may not want to certify involvement of COVID-19"

Fact. Our local GP practice have visited our homes once per week (in addition to call-outs) for years as a matter of routine. The last visit was the day before yesterday (Tuesday) - from that visit I know not only our current Covid status but also that of all the surrounding homes and the town generally. It is not true that GP's are unwilling to visit from our experience.

2. Base claim. "So the report says: Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 14, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes."

Fact. Outside of hospitals, the biggest number of deaths by far will occur in Nursing homes (not Care homes or Hospices) - the report omits to even mention them!

The reason that I have such scepticism regarding all these so-called 'detailed' reports is down to a simple fact that they invariably overlook - namely that there is more (or as much) variation between different types of Care / Nursing venues as there is amongst the general (healthy) population.

If you have a large (100+ bed) nursing home situated just outside the grounds of a major hospital - then it's pretty clear what its role is - basically an overflow of the hospital. It will be staffed to CQC rules i.e. An RGN as responsible person, large % of staff being registered nurses, GP's and specialists on-call and in frequent attendance etc. 

Compare the above (in terms of physical health and now Covid vulnerability) to a Home specialising in Mental Health for ex-service guys with severe PTSD, all in their 20's and 30's and as fit as a butchers dog - no comparison (especially in terms of Covid vulnerability) but the expert reports lump them all together.

I don't disagree with you, but be careful of reading too much into these reports and extrapolating from them.

Ps. Reporting of deaths to CQC is a Section 16 legal requirement and is independent of any registration of the death (as an aside).

My remark on doctors' visits came across as more ambiguous than I meant.  I meant to refer to those homes where doctors had cut or cut back on visits (which is clearly happening is some cases) rather than to the sector as a whole.  But of course even where local health services are keeping up a good level of attention there may be under-diagnosis because of lack of testing or other motives such as not wanting to scare other residents when COVID-19 is just a possibility.

Thank you for your insight into how the sector is working as a whole and you're right about how the figures will cover a wide range of establishments with varied client mix.  The same is true to some extent with hospitals as well of course and it's difficult to know what else they could do at the 'top level' of analysis.  But they should possibly be looking further down (maybe with CQC data) to get more insight from the differences between types of establishment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, GD4ELI said:

Wait until Covid-19 hits the slums of India and the poorer countries like Haiti.

Covid-19 ‘avalanche’ in Africa & India could lead to FOUR waves of virus hitting Europe & US, health expert says

His predictions of multiple waves of the virus come just a day after another expert warned that social distancing measures may have to be in place until 2022.

A paper published in the journal Science concluded that a one-time lockdown would not be enough to stem the spread – and warned that secondary peaks could be even higher.

The worst case scenario presented by the team from Harvard University was that, in the absence of a vaccine, Covid-19 could keep bouncing back until as late as 2025.

https://www.rt.com/news/485895-coronavirus-waves-europe-us-pandemic/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

My remark on doctors' visits came across as more ambiguous than I meant.  I meant to refer to those homes where doctors had cut or cut back on visits (which is clearly happening is some cases) rather than to the sector as a whole.  But of course even where local health services are keeping up a good level of attention there may be under-diagnosis because of lack of testing or other motives such as not wanting to scare other residents when COVID-19 is just a possibility.

Thank you for your insight into how the sector is working as a whole and you're right about how the figures will cover a wide range of establishments with varied client mix.  The same is true to some extent with hospitals as well of course and it's difficult to know what else they could do at the 'top level' of analysis.  But they should possibly be looking further down (maybe with CQC data) to get more insight from the differences between types of establishment.

That is already starting to happen anyway - just not in the media / internet forums.

The UK Government and economy always act like a supertanker, slow to get going, massive capacity once up to speed, difficult to stop / turn.

If you want to make your fortune, invest now in long-term storage facilities for mothballing and overhauling of hospital ventilators.

Edited by Manximus Aururaneus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

I just don't see Germany being any different to UK to be honest. But I do wonder how they are registering the deaths and if it's consistent.

Well they're testing a lot more. The German testing rate is about four times of that of the UK[1], so they should be picking up more cases and so have more reliable figures than the UK.  Health matters are quite devolved in Germany and figures presumably being produced by individual Länder and consolidated.  So there may be inconsistencies, but often these can be useful as they highlight differences that would otherwise go unnoticed (as we see between England and Scotland) and there will be mechanisms for then agreeing a common approach.

 

[1]  The UK rate also shows quite a high percentage of re-tests of the same people - given the lack of testing for front-line NHS staff this suggests an elite being constantly monitored while the rest are left untested.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well they're testing a lot more. The German testing rate is about four times of that of the UK[1], so they should be picking up more cases and so have more reliable figures than the UK.  Health matters are quite devolved in Germany and figures presumably being produced by individual Länder and consolidated.  So there may be inconsistencies, but often these can be useful as they highlight differences that would otherwise go unnoticed (as we see between England and Scotland) and there will be mechanisms for then agreeing a common approach.

 

[1]  The UK rate also shows quite a high percentage of re-tests of the same people - given the lack of testing for front-line NHS staff this suggests an elite being constantly monitored while the rest are left untested.

Someone's tinfoil hats slipped.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, gettafa said:

We're not fucking Germany, We're not fucking Spain or Italy. Or England or Sweden or anywhere else.

The Isle of Man is a small Island (duh) and we should have an absolute grip on this thing.
 

Where did the 25 people confirmed today catch this?

Fuck knows. It just happened like.

Well they say they are doing contact tracing, so they should have data from that.  But because the briefings are politician-led rather than using doctors or scientists, the chance of getting some sort of information is probably minimal.  Though there will always be a number of cases where the honest answer is 'nobody knows'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

The German figures are quite believable to me. And they're not unique, there are other countries such as Austria and Australia that seem to have done quite well in keeping deaths down so far.  Or have done well by restricting the area of outbreak, such as China or South Korea.   Even when countries are closely linked such as the UK and Ireland, there may be differences, which is what you would expect if they are following different policies as that article shows.

There are always going to be two competing forces on the accuracy of statistics.  Doctors, scientists and statisticians are going to want them to be as accurate as possible, for self-respect but also professional reputation.  Politicians, business people are going to want what suits them personally at that particular moment.  Open societies like Germany are more likely to respect the former.

I would be very sceptical of figures that come out of China about this, or anything else for that matter. What the CCP says goes.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Uhtred said:

It’s also clear from the excellent video of Angela Merkel explaining the nature of infection and the need for control, which is currently circulating, with subtitles, on Twitter, that Germany also benefits from political leadership that is more skilled and talented than that which  is available in the U.K or the U.S.  Perhaps having a former respected scientist in charge is preferable to dodgy journalists and shady property magnates.

Like when she flung open the doors to all and sundry to migrate from Asia and Africa, then just as quickly slammed them shut, causing chaos in Southern Europe you mean? Yeah. Fantastic, Angela. What a star!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, slinkydevil said:

Covid-19 ‘avalanche’ in Africa & India could lead to FOUR waves of virus hitting Europe & US, health expert says

His predictions of multiple waves of the virus come just a day after another expert warned that social distancing measures may have to be in place until 2022.

A paper published in the journal Science concluded that a one-time lockdown would not be enough to stem the spread – and warned that secondary peaks could be even higher.

The worst case scenario presented by the team from Harvard University was that, in the absence of a vaccine, Covid-19 could keep bouncing back until as late as 2025.

https://www.rt.com/news/485895-coronavirus-waves-europe-us-pandemic/

Which is exactly why the ideas behind herd immunity are not as stupid as people make them out to be. 

It's 50/50 as to whether the boffins will make a vaccine or not 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, On The Bus said:

Which is exactly why the ideas behind herd immunity are not as stupid as people make them out to be. 

It's 50/50 as to whether the boffins will make a vaccine or not 

This. Precisely. Which is why I keep saying that this is so far from over that nobody has the wisdom on it. We're just starting down the road. They may make a vaccine but, like flu, it may not be a one and done. As it mutates it might become something more benign - or deadlier. Nobody knows.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gettafa said:

We're not fucking Germany, We're not fucking Spain or Italy. Or England or Sweden or anywhere else.

The Isle of Man is a small Island (duh) and we should have an absolute grip on this thing.
 

Where did the 25 people confirmed today catch this?

Fuck knows. It just happened like.

Because of our superior Manxy DNA?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...