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Coronavirus Isle of Man


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Not quite sure I heard this right. They have been harping on about testing and contact tracing, always under way and control. Yet the other day when Old Howard was welcomed back to the land of the living I'm sure one of the jurno's asked him who he caught it off his reply was DON'T KNOW not exactly inspiring confidence in the tracing routine.

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Press Release from the Rob Vine Fund   Following the cessation of Motor Sport on the Isle of Man in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic the Directors of the Rob Vine Fund, Registered Charity No.954

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly) I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers

There's a lot of difficult concepts and difficult decisions being made here.  I'll have a go at a further explanation.  Possible long post ahead. First the difference between 'public health' and

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5 minutes ago, Dirty Buggane said:

Not quite sure I heard this right. They have been harping on about testing and contact tracing, always under way and control. Yet the other day when Old Howard was welcomed back to the land of the living I'm sure one of the jurno's asked him who he caught it off his reply was DON'T KNOW not exactly inspiring confidence in the tracing routine.

You heard correctly. Contact tracing only works if you can limit the amount of contact people have i.e a lockdown. Howard however will have been in many meetings with all sorts of people meaning it'll be harder for him to trace where he got it from.

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30 minutes ago, Dirty Buggane said:

Not quite sure I heard this right. They have been harping on about testing and contact tracing, always under way and control. Yet the other day when Old Howard was welcomed back to the land of the living I'm sure one of the jurno's asked him who he caught it off his reply was DON'T KNOW not exactly inspiring confidence in the tracing routine.

But Howard, or anyone who caught the virus from someone else aren't entitled to know the identity of who they were infected by. There is little point to it anyhow. This has already been discussed earlier in the thread.

That Quayler couldn't answer the question of who his source of infection was has no bearing on the effectiveness of local contact tracing. 

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7 minutes ago, Dirty Buggane said:

That's as may be, but will somebody know who infected him. And if it does not matter what is the point of tracing in the first place. Unless to waste money.

The person who infected him may have been entirely asymptomatic and never exhibited any symptoms - thus untraceable.

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10 minutes ago, John Wright said:

The person who infected him may have been entirely asymptomatic and never exhibited any symptoms - thus untraceable.

Not true. 

Not true at all. You miss the point of contact tracing entirely.

And this is the point - contact tracing if carried out properly would/could  have traced the source. A common contact, and more easily a common situation such as a meeting,  would have shown up in the data.

We live on an Island, in lockdown, with closed borders. But I think I already said that.

eta

And such a high profile person as a Chief Minister, regardless of the amount of people he was in contact with, is an easy subject to contact trace. Everyone who has been in contact with him - and when - will know. Whereas Sharon down the checkout at Shoprite? Who knows? (Ok, ok, in that case 'Sharon' would show on the till receipt but you get the point, and anyway we don't keep till receipts, even in a pandemic where contact tracing is supposed to be going on)

 

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14 minutes ago, Dirty Buggane said:

That's as may be, but will somebody know who infected him. And if it does not matter what is the point of tracing in the first place. Unless to waste money.

Tracing is in a forward direction. If someone tests positive they’re asked to identify who they might have had significant (<2m for >15min) contact with during their infective period. Those people are contacted and either tested, or asked to isolate - not aware of the exact mechanics of it. They’re not told who they got it from, but the process may identify it, and it’s possibly on the database. 
 

The point is to shut down onward spread, not to identify blame. 

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Tru nuff! The asymtomatics would have been contacted because they were in contact with HQ. Tho they could not be identified as HQs infector.

Are all contacts tested? I don't think so. So given the R? there will be gaps in spread figures?

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It's time for that anyway?

Fair play to Wrighty, his explanation just before is more info than we poor plebs have given up to now but notice, even he is not fully aware of the procedure!

We've been promised more info on the stats front, lets hope that it will be soon!

Is there weighting in Comin? A dominant Dept who's opinion is allowed to over rule others before they arrive at a consensus?

Did the Treasury have sway on the decision to allow building?

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11 minutes ago, Kopek said:

Tru nuff! The asymtomatics would have been contacted because they were in contact with HQ. Tho they could not be identified as HQs infector.

Are all contacts tested? I don't think so. So given the R? there will be gaps in spread figures?

I wasn't tested. Just advised to self-isolate for 14 days and if symptoms developed to ring 111.

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