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Never mind the virus, I am more concerned with what the Dept of Enterprise think they are going to do with our money? If the virus doesn't tank the economy their playing at it will.

 This is what is wrong with this island - a gov dept acting out their name playing at being businessmen. If they were any good at that they would be in the private sector. We get situations like the portacabin hotel at the pits, with a 60ish % use in the first year, the second year they not only cant even get the dates right on the planning application they plan on putting in a larger quantity of huts? I mean WTF? I know that is fronted by a private co but do you really think we are not pouring money in to it? Think for a moment about shipping for the huts alone -£1k each way? try and make that pay in 1 and a bit weeks takings...………..

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Press Release from the Rob Vine Fund   Following the cessation of Motor Sport on the Isle of Man in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic the Directors of the Rob Vine Fund, Registered Charity No.954

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly) I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers

There's a lot of difficult concepts and difficult decisions being made here.  I'll have a go at a further explanation.  Possible long post ahead. First the difference between 'public health' and

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14 hours ago, wrighty said:

Same apply to heroin? Ridiculous analogy, and it’s your, not you’re - I had to do a double take to understand that. And its. 

Firstly, come, come, Weighty, sniping at my grammar and spelling, which is mostly down to autotext and not wearing my reading glasses!

Secondly, no, not heroin, or cocaine etc, they are life wreckers whereas I very much doubt cannabis is. 

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29 minutes ago, Uhtred said:

‘Science requires’ eh? So not Lib Van looking to remind us that they exist. He had a try last week with the daft ‘Coronavirus medal’ plan he mooted to the UK. That sank without trace.

But what could say more about the Island than another award ceremony, where those who spend their time sitting in meetings (now from the comfort of their own home) telling each other how wonderful they all are,  can do exactly the same in public after a mediocre meal paid for by us?  More awards must be invented to save these people from the indignity of having to pay for their own food.  (To be fair it wasn't the most ridiculous idea last week, given that they were still begging for nominations for Howie's Heroes - or #HowardsHeroes as they insist on calling it, because hash tags show they are cool and #downwiththekidz).

Actually Josem is right that it is usual to publish these sort of models and, probably more important, the assumptions that lie behind them.  But as wrighty made very clear, his modelling wasn't predictive but to illustrate the effects of different strategies.  The problem with these situations isn't just there are a lot of unknowns that you would need to make reliable predictions[1], it's that there's an 'Oedipus Effect' where people may alter their behaviour because of the predictions.  We've seen this with the COVID outbreak where people and companies changed the way they did things even before governments introduced regulation.

 

[1]  Even when you do know them, they may then change over time because the initial population the values were derived from may not be representative of the whole.

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Over the last week or so I’ve developed hay fever symptoms, itchy dry eyes, occasional sneezing, occasional cough and blowing my nose (fairly infrequent). One new symptom I’ve not had before is a slight heavy feeling in my chest/occasional wheezing.

First thing I did was consult Dr Google concerned it may be Covid 19 masquerading as hay fever, judging by the Google results it’s obvious a lot of people are wondering the same thing, what is the differences between Covid19 and Hayfever symptoms.

 

D7D77E09-D16F-4029-98AF-06D7E801F31C.jpeg

 

So that leads me to believe the heavy chest feeling may well be Asthma due to the pollen, apparently this year will be one of the highest pollen counts on record, so I’m sure I’m not the only one worrying about this.

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10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

 

#HowardsHeroes as they insist on calling it, because hash tags show they are cool and #downwiththekidz).

 

The hashtag hasn't been used to "show they are cool and #downwiththekidz". Hashtags are used so that posts about a subject under discussion can be easily found. I don't know about FB because I avoid FB but on Twitter, if you enter the hashtag into the site search engine, the search returns all the posts where that hashtag has been used. This is how they find the nominations for #HowardsHeroes.

While I think the concept is good, I dislike the hashtag they've used. Rather than using Howard's name - or any individual's name - I think it would have been far better to use a hashtag such as #IsleOfManHeroes, or if you do like the idea of using an individual's name, perhaps #ManannansHeroes although the likelihood of that being misspelled is high.

How about #MonasIsleHeroes?

#MoaninIsleHeroes? :whistling:

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2 minutes ago, Zarley said:

While I think the concept is good, I dislike the hashtag they've used. Rather than using Howard's name - or any individual's name - I think it would have been far better to use a hashtag such as #IsleOfManHeroes, or if you do like the idea of using an individual's name, perhaps #ManannansHeroes although the likelihood of that being misspelled is high.

How about #MonasIsleHeroes?

#MoaninIsleHeroes? :whistling:

Just #isleofmanheroes would do for me. The Howard bit is excruciatingly embarrassing and about as far away from getting down with the kids as it could possibly be. Like the vicar playing guitar at the youth club.

I’ve just joined Twitter. As someone who can never say anything without saying it too much I’m using it as a tool to help me become a little more frugal with my words. 
 

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I see the Nations Propoganda Mouthpiece has a press release from one of its departments, the Starship Enterprise.

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/tt2020-to-go-online/

When this was mentioned first time around, Zi thought someone was taking the proverbial, obviously these Clowns headed by Minister Clown are deadly serious. Why? Why? Why?.

The event is cancelled, having a virtual event it’s going to make loads more tourists come to the island. I doubt it’s going to shift many more units of the TT game.

We are masters of waste, spin and regurgitated bullshit, on difference being it’s costing us taxpayers all the time. 
 

Im surprised that Skelly and Starship Enterprise aren’t organising a tour of China to woo all these Chinese Banks and Manufacturing Companies to the island. We are that stupid, that we  would give China financial, medical and food aid.

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1 minute ago, ecobob said:

Just #isleofmanheroes would do for me. The Howard bit is excruciatingly embarrassing and about as far away from getting down with the kids as it could possibly be. Like the vicar playing guitar at the youth club.

I’ve just joined Twitter. As someone who can never say anything without saying it too much I’m using it as a tool to help me become a little more frugal with my words. 
 

SNAP!

And yes, #HowardsHeroes is cringe-worthy beyond belief. #IsleOfManHeroes is my favourite as well but #MoaninIsleHeroes makes me chuckle. I'm easily amused these days.

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49 minutes ago, yootalkin2me said:

Firstly, come, come, Weighty, sniping at my grammar and spelling, which is mostly down to autotext and not wearing my reading glasses!

Secondly, no, not heroin, or cocaine etc, they are life wreckers whereas I very much doubt cannabis is. 

I assume ‘Weighty’ has a similar origin and isn’t an unfounded slur on my BMI :)

You caught me at an irritated moment, and I shouldn’t have sunk to criticism of grammar etc. Apologies. 
 

My main gripe however was your analogy - not whether cannabis itself has merit. The idea that because something is good enough for the medical profession to prescribe (eg heroin) indicates it should be ok for recreational use is ridiculous. 

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14 hours ago, gettafa said:

Oh dear, you say "more rubbish", could you say please direct to what else you consider rubbish?

As I said, I wasn't ever trying to seek blame. But if I was....if I was it would be Howard himself. You know, social distancing, not shaking hands etc. etc. etc again.

You are suggesting I think it's possible to become infected without doing so deliberately. Jeez, now that is hyperbowl. 

The ‘more’ referred to another poster’s contribution I replied to just before - didn’t mean to insinuate that your post was yet more rubbish from you personally - apologies for that. 
 

Your statement however - “the only person to blame for Howard’s infection is Howard himself” - is rubbish. I stand by that. 

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42 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

Over the last week or so I’ve developed hay fever symptoms, itchy dry eyes, occasional sneezing, occasional cough and blowing my nose (fairly infrequent). One new symptom I’ve not had before is a slight heavy feeling in my chest/occasional wheezing.

First thing I did was consult Dr Google concerned it may be Covid 19 masquerading as hay fever, judging by the Google results it’s obvious a lot of people are wondering the same thing, what is the differences between Covid19 and Hayfever symptoms.

 

D7D77E09-D16F-4029-98AF-06D7E801F31C.jpeg

 

So that leads me to believe the heavy chest feeling may well be Asthma due to the pollen, apparently this year will be one of the highest pollen counts on record, so I’m sure I’m not the only one worrying about this.

This could well be why were not seeing any new positive cases but people are getting tested. Possibly thinking they have the virus and it could be hayfever/ something else

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1 hour ago, VinnieK said:

As best as I can tell*, Graph Theory/Network Analysis is a promising area of epidemiological research and has been used to provide insights into previous epidemics, but there seem to be significant obstacles standing in the way of using it to construct a model of an entirely new disease (see, for instance, [1])---for example, you need detailed knowledge of the networks connecting members of the population, or some way of reasonably approximating this, and an understanding of the properties of the disease relating to transmission and rate of infection before even starting to construct a graph for analysis, and even then it looks like producing meaningful results is computationally challenging . In some cases, such as modelling the progress of an STD in humans or a known pathogen in a population of cattle, this is probably less of a problem, but I'm guessing it's a much bigger challenge (or near impossible) to do this for a new influenza-ish virus which can hang around on surfaces for a day or so.

Good to see you back VinnieK! Graph theory is an area of maths I’ve never studied, so with your 2 years experience it seems like you might be the man for the job if we have to switch tack for some reason ;)

The problem with all these discrete approaches is going to be the margins of error which in a small population are going to be very wide such as to make any results useless. Same goes with actual calculation of our R value. There’s been some suggestion that we should be calculating a local R and watching how it changes with the social measures we put in place. Hong Kong do this (not sure how) and have a massive confidence interval from a population of 7.5million. Germany publish daily estimates (the Robert Koch Institut refers to it as an estimate, and their methodology is in German so not sure how they’re doing it either) and with a population of 1000x ours they still have relatively wide confidence in their published values. When a disease such as covid is being carried and spread by an unknown number of people who get the virus and remain asymptomatic it is going to be difficult. 
 

Our model is based on continuous functions (although I’m using recursive growth and subtracting to get daily numbers - haven’t attempted to find a closed form, it might be hard or even impossible and I don’t think it’s necessary) which are easier to handle and you can look at hard end points such as positive cases, hospital admissions, deaths etc which are easy to measure, although even death has differences worldwide in how it is counted relating to covid. 
 

Contact tracing is essential, and perhaps when this is all over the data will be used to formulate new methods in epidemiology, but for now it’s important for tracking rather than modelling with a view to what might happen next. 
 

As an aside, I did an intercalated immunology degree during my medical degree. There was an interesting antibody hypothesis doing the rounds then - Jerne network hypothesis if I recall correctly.  The principle being that antibodies to pathogens are also recognised as foreign and you get antibodies to them too, in smaller numbers, and so on. You end up with a network of interacting antibodies, the point being to moderate an immune response. I thought at the time it was mathematically very interesting, but in about 30 years I don’t think it’s come to much. 

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29 minutes ago, wrighty said:

I assume ‘Weighty’ has a similar origin and isn’t an unfounded slur on my BMI :)

You caught me at an irritated moment, and I shouldn’t have sunk to criticism of grammar etc. Apologies. 
 

My main gripe however was your analogy - not whether cannabis itself has merit. The idea that because something is good enough for the medical profession to prescribe (eg heroin) indicates it should be ok for recreational use is ridiculous. 

Certainly no slur, again, flippin autotext and blurred vision to blame.

What I meant by good enough for medical purposes so should be good enough for recreational use was specifically aimed at cannabis, not other drugs, except for maybe magic mushrooms, due to the very low negative impact on individuals, yes, there will always be casualties as such but an extremely low percentage, other than that it is not only harmless but is also an extremely flexible and useful crop which has a myriad uses. I just He'll be that, not only should cannabis be permitted for medical use but also recreational use, the prohibition should now be lifted, we don't need the Governmet to tell us what to inject or not (see Trump advocating the use of injecting bleach (if true)), most of us adults are quite capable of deciding for ourselves, it's the young that need the protection and they certainly aren't protected by criminalizing it, plus, if you end the prohibition you can free up a lot of Police resources to deal with much more important crimes/issues, as well as regulating it, licensing it and taxing it And applying the same, or similar where appropriate, laws as exist for alcohol.

I don't drink alcohol, but every now and again, either in the comfort of my own home or at a 'coffee shop' I might like to enjoy a joint be relaxed, talk shite (more than I normally do), listen to some music, watch a movie, play on the games console and then go to bed....What's the problem?

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