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Coronavirus Isle of Man


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Every single country has had the attitude of "but it's not happening here", not learning from other countries who thought exactly the same before them, until it hits so quickly, and so badly, that everyone and everything is overwhelmed.

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Press Release from the Rob Vine Fund   Following the cessation of Motor Sport on the Isle of Man in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic the Directors of the Rob Vine Fund, Registered Charity No.954

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly) I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers

There's a lot of difficult concepts and difficult decisions being made here.  I'll have a go at a further explanation.  Possible long post ahead. First the difference between 'public health' and

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25 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

If you listened to the press conference yesterday the point they made was that as yet there is no evidence of human to human transmission between people in the IoM. The two positive cases reported are from people who caught it outside the IoM and returned to the IoM.

They also said that when there is evidence of human to human transmission between people in the IoM and I presume that this from a person to an unrelated third party rather to an individuals spouse, or somebody who was in direct contact and already self isolating on a precautionary basis then stricter measures will be introduced.

They did not suggest that there the disease did not transfer from person to person as some are falsely implying here.

They should introduce stricter measures now. I doubt many people would complain, especially if you tie it with economic measures to control the impact. At least one of the cases came over on a plane. For all we know, a whole plane load of positive cases is now roaming around the island. The next week will be interesting.. 

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1 minute ago, Lost Login said:

I am not the one making the rules. Amadeus asked why the IoM is why the IoM is presently doing things differently from what the London Mayor was suggesting. My response was to explain why, based on my understanding of what the IoM Government are saying, the IoM is doing things differently. I am not arguing one or other is right or wrong.

In the UK and especially in London it appears that there is a level of transmission through the community. That is not presently the case in the IoM and that is why the IoM appear presently to be taking different steps.

One thing I thought the UK Government got wrong was announcing the closure of puns from midnight at 5:00pm as all that did was encourage a load to go out for a last few drinks, so making the pubs more crowded, increasing the chances of transmission. 

The problem is though LL, we don't know how many people on the island are infected now. In two weeks we could be swamped with cases, or if we choose to be sensible, we could have a few isolated cases.

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11 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

What's the point of waiting? It is obviously going to happen from all the evidence everywhere else in the world including all of about 70 miles away. They don't need evidence on the Isle of Man when it is inevitable. 

That is a reasonable point but I expect it is partly based on human reaction. I have no idea if the Y2K bug was real but an awful lot of money was spent because of it and because nothing happened many have the view it was all a hoax and we did not need to do anything. Others will state that because of the actions taken it was stopped.

From what I have read etc it appears that Governments and not just the IoM Government are cautious of increasing steps too quickly for the fear that there will be a similar public response and should they need to reintroduce the rules a second time the public are likely to ignore on the belief that they were not need the first time around. 

I am not arguing whether that is a good argument or not, it just seems that Governments are aware of human psychology and factoring that in to the measures they are taking. For measures to work you have to keep the population on side. 

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Government action has been too slow that is why you’re being asked to take individual responsibility and self isolate. 

Edited by Chinahand
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5 minutes ago, ecobob said:

 

Take your kids out of school. Stay home as far as is possible and when you do have to go out stay two metres away from everyone else. It’s going to be hard but it’s nothing compared with how hard it’s going to be in a couple of month’s time. Do it before it’s too late and Lost Login, if you dare say I’m spreading panic then I’m telling you to wake the fuck up and that what I’m doing is spreading common sense! 

You do what you think is right and appropriate and I will do the same. I also respect that people have different views.

At present I am not of the view that the position in the IoM is such that we should all self isolate. You obviously have a different view. If and when facts change then I may change my opinion. I will not change my view that if I could catch the disease without infecting others I would like to catch it as once immune I could be much more useful to elderly relatives and also no longer a risk of infecting others by accident. I do accept that there may be a risk to my health but at present I am prepared to accept that risk.

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1 minute ago, Lost Login said:

 I do accept that there may be a risk to my health but at present I am prepared to accept that risk.

But you are asking everyone you come into contact with to accept that risk too! Including those who you may rely on to help you if you became ill.

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8 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

They should introduce stricter measures now. I doubt many people would complain, especially if you tie it with economic measures to control the impact. At least one of the cases came over on a plane. For all we know, a whole plane load of positive cases is now roaming around the island. The next week will be interesting.. 

There may be a whole plane of positive cases or there may be none and I agree that the next week will give the answer though I am pretty certain we will not get your hundreds of thousand of cases. I hope that from the tracing that Govt have done in respect of confirmed or suspected cases the Govt are reasonably confident it is not roaming around the Island or I would have expected to see more controls introduced. 

What I do find interesting is that you recommend stricter controls but it was obvious from your video that you are not self isolating yourself as if you where you could not have shot that video.

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45 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

there is evidence of human to human transmission between people in the IoM 

Relatively, almost nobody has been tested. Your argument seems to be wait until it's too late.

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10 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

You do what you think is right and appropriate and I will do the same. I also respect that people have different views.

At present I am not of the view that the position in the IoM is such that we should all self isolate. You obviously have a different view. If and when facts change then I may change my opinion. I will not change my view that if I could catch the disease without infecting others I would like to catch it as once immune I could be much more useful to elderly relatives and also no longer a risk of infecting others by accident. I do accept that there may be a risk to my health but at present I am prepared to accept that risk.

This is not just about you. You’re not just taking the risk yourself. You’re risking the health of everyone else.

You don’t think there are going to be thousands of deaths here? Then please answer me one question. What is it about the Isle of Man that makes you think we are not going to follow the pattern of every other country in the world? 

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