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4 minutes ago, yootalkin2me said:

would a total of around 2000 people to enforce the law enough to prevent the breakdown of law and order?

A good chance, if they were armed.

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Press Release from the Rob Vine Fund   Following the cessation of Motor Sport on the Isle of Man in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic the Directors of the Rob Vine Fund, Registered Charity No.954

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly) I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers

There's a lot of difficult concepts and difficult decisions being made here.  I'll have a go at a further explanation.  Possible long post ahead. First the difference between 'public health' and

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Just now, yootalkin2me said:

I wonder, if all 80,000 of us on this Island disobeyed the instructions from the authorities and let's say 2.5% died that would leave 78,000, what can the authorities do? They can't arrest 78,000 people and certainly couldn't jail that many, they'd struggle to jail 1%. How could they even enforce any law, and that's if the Police had a full compliment, I assume that they'd use the fire brigade, including retained fire fighter to enforce and deputise them prior to that, as well as using special constables and reprising others who wished to enforce the law so let's say that would add another 2% of the populous which is 1600 people, would a total of around 2000 people to enforce the law enough to prevent the breakdown of law and order?

Policing is by consent and I am sure that most, including me, will agree with the latest measures now we have a confirmed case that was spread by contact within the Island. I am sure that again the majority of us will be more careful now but I expect that the rush tomorrow into Tesco's will continue.

Many of my points earlier, which many I accept disagreed with, where on the basis that you need to get the public to buy in to the measures announced and there is no point in trying to crack down to hard to early if that means the public will not buy into the measures.

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7 minutes ago, yootalkin2me said:

I wonder, if all 80,000 of us on this Island disobeyed the instructions from the authorities and let's say 2.5% died that would leave 78,000, what can the authorities do? They can't arrest 78,000 people and certainly couldn't jail that many, they'd struggle to jail 1%. How could they even enforce any law, and that's if the Police had a full compliment, I assume that they'd use the fire brigade, including retained fire fighter to enforce and deputise them prior to that, as well as using special constables and reprising others who wished to enforce the law so let's say that would add another 2% of the populous which is 1600 people, would a total of around 2000 people to enforce the law enough to prevent the breakdown of law and order?

Nothing to put bluntly. But not everyone is a dick.

If everyone got infected, say over the next month, 2.5% dying would be what we wished had happened. The NHS would be overwhelmed with no staff as they're all infected and deaths would skyrocket. With our aged population we'd see a good amount snuff it. 

The police do what they can. The public do what they can. The balance is somewhere inbetween - the police deal with the major outliers, the public deal with keeping granny scroggings in doors (fuck knows how i'm going to manage it...) 

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@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly)

I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers of patients infected with the virus starting from 1 last Thursday, using a daily growth rate of 29% (figure from UK growth in positives over the last few weeks).  Probably 80% will get it as we have little if any native immunity.  As many as 50-75% may be totally asymptomatic.  Of the cases that get it, it varies with age, but broadly speaking about 20% need hospital care and of those 25% intensive care.  Let us know your conclusions.

The only thing we can affect, until we have a vaccine to reduce that 80% figure, is to reduce the 29% - the transmission rate.  The key ways to do this are:

  1. Wash your hands, properly, and often
  2. STAY AT HOME - unless you absolutely have to go out
  3. MAINTAIN SOCIAL DISTANCE - 2m, no 'popping round to a friend's' etc
  4. If you have to SELF ISOLATE - DO IT PROPERLY - Don't leave the house at all.

If we all do that, we have a chance, as a society, to get through this.  It's not too late.  For all the government bashing we generally get on here they have listened, and are doing the right thing.  In my estimation we're a couple of weeks ahead of the UK in terms of the measures we've taken.  I'm very concerned for our adjacent isle - we're going to see reports from there similar to those from Italy within a couple of weeks or so.  WE HAVE A CHANCE OF AVOIDING THAT HERE IF WE ALL PLAY OUR PART.

If it isn't essential, don't go there.  Your 5-a-side games should be cancelled, I'd suggest.

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2 hours ago, WTF said:

almost radio on time,  i expect it to start    ' this is Douglas'    doom and gloom blah de blah de blah.

 

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16 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

Was he actually arrested? If so the press release was not incorrect. He may have been arrested and on further enquiries released.

He went to the police for advice voluntarily. Someone thought it was the ideal opportunity to make it look as though someone had been arrested for not self isolating, but it backfired.

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1 hour ago, trmpton said:

Cant really see how people can criticise any of those at the press conference tbh.  Glad I am not the one sat there with everything I say being judged, scrutinised and with people looking to try me up and find fault at a time when we should all be pulling together.

Especially by a bunch of internet fuckwits who all think they have the correct strategy to combat the spread of the virus when nobody knows what that strategy is.

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1 hour ago, Annoymouse said:

That’s honestly been the best so far, I’ve just commented to OH that I think he’s finally learning how to behave in a public press meeting, aside from the body language of folding his arms he did fairly well.

Ashford and Quayle both struggle with stuttering and are unable to read two sentences without doing so. Dr Allinson, Alf Cannan and Dr Ranson are better public speakers but Ashford and Quayle are getting better within time.

Ashford always looks as though his mind is somewhere else to me.

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4 minutes ago, wrighty said:

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly)

I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers of patients infected with the virus starting from 1 last Thursday, using a daily growth rate of 29% (figure from UK growth in positives over the last few weeks).  Probably 80% will get it as we have little if any native immunity.  As many as 50-75% may be totally asymptomatic.  Of the cases that get it, it varies with age, but broadly speaking about 20% need hospital care and of those 25% intensive care.  Let us know your conclusions.

The only thing we can affect, until we have a vaccine to reduce that 80% figure, is to reduce the 29% - the transmission rate.  The key ways to do this are:

  1. Wash your hands, properly, and often
  2. STAY AT HOME - unless you absolutely have to go out
  3. MAINTAIN SOCIAL DISTANCE - 2m, no 'popping round to a friend's' etc
  4. If you have to SELF ISOLATE - DO IT PROPERLY - Don't leave the house at all.

If we all do that, we have a chance, as a society, to get through this.  It's not too late.  For all the government bashing we generally get on here they have listened, and are doing the right thing.  In my estimation we're a couple of weeks ahead of the UK in terms of the measures we've taken.  I'm very concerned for our adjacent isle - we're going to see reports from there similar to those from Italy within a couple of weeks or so.  WE HAVE A CHANCE OF AVOIDING THAT HERE IF WE ALL PLAY OUR PART.

If it isn't essential, don't go there.  Your 5-a-side games should be cancelled, I'd suggest.

I won't disagree with any of that now we have a confirmed cases in the Isle of Man that was spread between person's in the IoM. I did not see the case to expect everybody to self isolate whilst schools etc where open and it appeared that the only cases we had where ones that people had caught across and basically self isolated themselves on arrival. In that case I thought it appropriate for the more vulnerable to self isolate and the rest of us to moderate our behaviour. I have kids at school and until the schools were closed that was the most likely way the virus might spread between the group I associate with not by the dads of those kids playing 5 a side once a week.

 

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1 hour ago, Declan said:

Barely. This is the first press conference  I’ve heard - is he usually even less composed. 

Are you fucking joking..? This is a man more out of his depth than a midget swimming above the Marianas Trench.

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1 minute ago, Lost Login said:

And Cannan was very poor last week

For a man once touted as a possible Chief Minister he’s now clearly making a bid to be considered for appointment as a scarecrow.

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Well done @Lost Login for keeping your point of view (even though I don't agree with it). It is somewhat contrary to current public opinion but has has provided some useful debate and information. 

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39 minutes ago, wrighty said:

@Lost Login - (and anyone else who thinks this doesn't apply to them particularly)

I seem to recall you're an accountant so you can do this. Set up your own model of exponential growth in numbers of patients infected with the virus starting from 1 last Thursday, using a daily growth rate of 29% (figure from UK growth in positives over the last few weeks).  Probably 80% will get it as we have little if any native immunity.  As many as 50-75% may be totally asymptomatic.  Of the cases that get it, it varies with age, but broadly speaking about 20% need hospital care and of those 25% intensive care.  Let us know your conclusions.

The only thing we can affect, until we have a vaccine to reduce that 80% figure, is to reduce the 29% - the transmission rate.  The key ways to do this are:

  1. Wash your hands, properly, and often
  2. STAY AT HOME - unless you absolutely have to go out
  3. MAINTAIN SOCIAL DISTANCE - 2m, no 'popping round to a friend's' etc
  4. If you have to SELF ISOLATE - DO IT PROPERLY - Don't leave the house at all.

If we all do that, we have a chance, as a society, to get through this.  It's not too late.  For all the government bashing we generally get on here they have listened, and are doing the right thing.  In my estimation we're a couple of weeks ahead of the UK in terms of the measures we've taken.  I'm very concerned for our adjacent isle - we're going to see reports from there similar to those from Italy within a couple of weeks or so.  WE HAVE A CHANCE OF AVOIDING THAT HERE IF WE ALL PLAY OUR PART.

If it isn't essential, don't go there.  Your 5-a-side games should be cancelled, I'd suggest.

Lost Login is as much an accountant as I am a Rocket Scientist. You know what I did for a living. Just saying.

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20 minutes ago, Uhtred said:

Are you fucking joking..? This is a man more out of his depth than a midget swimming above the Marianas Trench.

But a midget would be at any disadvantage over an average or tall person if he was swimming above the Marianas Trench, if he couldn't swim and was drowning then your joke would stand.

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