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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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7 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It's a culture clash really.  Scientists are used to disagreeing and discussing differences in public because that is the way that science progresses.

In the realm of pure science, published papers and peer review, yes. Sure. But I think I can see how that might be different where a team needs to put out a coordinated and agreed public response. 

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10 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

While I can't comment on what the BBC have just said about the US, from watching cnn my impression is not one of things going very smoothly over there at all. Plenty of news articles easily searchable from a variety of sources suggesting the same.

 

 

That's because Trump is an idiot.

Bidens commitment is 100,000,000 in his first 100 days in power.

I would assume he is underestimating so he doesn't end up with egg on his face.

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29 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Without openness and discussion ideas don't get exchanged and improvements don't get made.  But disagreement aims not to be personal - it's other people's theories that are being examined, not their character.

.....like here on Manxforums obviously. 😄

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Twitter threads saying that the USA doesn’t have the vaccine stocks / reserves they thought they had. Obvious “jokes” that Kushner probably sold them. 
 

ETA 

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/hhs-secretary-azar-resigns-says-us-doesnt-have-reserve-vaccine-stockpile-655624/amp?__twitter_impression=true

etc, 

Edited by The Old Git
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24 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

While I can't comment on what the BBC have just said about the US, from watching cnn my impression is not one of things going very smoothly over there at all. Plenty of news articles easily searchable from a variety of sources suggesting the same.

All the rich oldies are heading to Florida where apparently you can then register and pay for the jabs. Even Disney world is being turned into a vaccine center.

Some fake injectors there will make a lot of money.

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1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

You can actually tell how many times the virus has been introduced into the community, and how it has progressed through the community too.

Dr Glover's blog explains it with a nice diagram here: https://rachomics.blog/

It gives you the answers as to who it is likely to have passed between directly, but also, where hops have been missed. It can either reassure you that your contact tracing is working, or alert you to a more widespread problem.

Thanks, you are Roger Mexico have responded in a similar fashion. I can understand how you can see how it has passed through the community as if there are several different sequences being passed on you can see how they are spreading. If one is spreading more than the other you could target those with that strain so I can see that could be useful. As the IoM is taking the approach of lockdown to quickly stop transmission though I am not sure that actually helps the IoM eliminate.

I don’t understand the bit about telling how many times the virus has been introduced as that would require there to be numerous different strains and numerous introductions into the community. We seem to have small number of cases the majority of which they appear to have traced to their source so it does not appear that we will have numerous strains and numerous introductions. Whether we have or not how does knowing that help us stop or resolve the current transmission quicker than the current lock down does.   

I read Dr Glover’s blog and I think I understand it. The sequencing will tell you who it has passed directly between as they will have the same sequence. I understand that would be useful as if there is an unknown sequence then you have a source you are not aware of.  Similarly I can see that it could show where hops have been missed although with the limited cases we have in the IoM the sequencing would have to slightly very quickly for that to apply. Does the sequencing change that quickly. Again though whether we the information or not how does knowing that help us stop or resolve the current transmission quicker than the current lock down does. I have not got much interest in the spat between IoM Govt and Mrs Glover, they are both getting my back up, beyond is it preventing us getting out of lockdown quicker than we would expect to do based on the current lockdown.

I can see the rest being interesting science and information you would like to review in due course when reviewing procedures, cross checking how good your tracing was but I am struggling to understand how it would speed us out of lockdown which Is what seems to be implied by some.  I am not necessarily referring to just posts on Manx Forums.  

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31 minutes ago, Rhumsaa said:

However, I am also a practical chap and going forward I can understand why the IOM Gov wouldn't want to go back into that relationship - once burned and all that. Also the offer from Dr Glover is not exactly going to encourage anyone to do it because there's no opportunity to save face or put a positive spin on it.

So everyone doubles down.

And the Manx public lose.

I like to think I am practically minded so I will raise the same question I raised in my recent post to Acoustically Challenged. Does this spat delay us getting out of lockdown as I would have thought that lockdown is what will stop the transmission quickly and enable normal life to resume. That is what is I am focusing on and what seems important at this point.  

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1 hour ago, Rhumsaa said:

I have absolute sympathy for Dr Glover resorting to social media to highlight her frustration but also if I was on the other side of that, I'd probably not want to deal with someone who would post on twitter and tag the news organisations if they disagreed with me.

Sadly the only losers in this battle is the Manx public

Well put Rhumsaa

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20 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

I don’t understand the bit about telling how many times the virus has been introduced as that would require there to be numerous different strains and numerous introductions into the community. We seem to have small number of cases the majority of which they appear to have traced to their source so it does not appear that we will have numerous strains and numerous introductions. Whether we have or not how does knowing that help us stop or resolve the current transmission quicker than the current lock down does.   

Because we don't know that there has only been one introduction this time and about a third of the cases had no obvious contact with another person infected.  So it could have come on the Island several times in recent weeks.  Genomics would reassure us there was only one source and if not we could look to see how the other infections arrived and how measures could be improved.

Multiple introductions are actually quite common - it's a myth that there is always a 'Patient Zero' who then infects everyone else, directly or indirectly.  Apparently there were at least 16 separate introduction to the Island in the Spring - some didn't result in any other person getting Covid that we know of, but other led to a lot of people doing so.

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14 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

I like to think I am practically minded so I will raise the same question I raised in my recent post to Acoustically Challenged. Does this spat delay us getting out of lockdown as I would have thought that lockdown is what will stop the transmission quickly and enable normal life to resume. That is what is I am focusing on and what seems important at this point.  

It would probably not, because the lockdown is a political decision.

It would help inform the contact tracing team about lines of transmission, and instill some much needed confidence in the process.

 

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There is also the power of knowledge and information; if we understand the virus that is here, its strain and infection chain, then aren't we better equipped for future outbreaks?

It may not solve this lockdown, but it may equip us for the future and create an environment where we can live with it, as I think we ultimately will have to. 

As for wise old Rhumsaa,  I understand entirely what you are saying, but the answer, surely, is to pursue the course of most benefit to the island, and to work on a constructive relationship of trust and mutual respect.  Unfortunately, while Dr Glover was arguing about the science, the IOMG response was facile, opaque and, to be frank, an inept attempt at "spin".  DA did not even know what the status of the relationship was!!!! 

I get the feeling that within the corridors of power, the policy is something along the lines of " would rather burn in hell than have that woman back".  Question is who will burn in hell, the IOM population?

There is also the question of where is the advisory committee that was agreed?  So, who is advising the decision makers now?

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6 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Because we don't know that there has only been one introduction this time and about a third of the cases had no obvious contact with another person infected.  So it could have come on the Island several times in recent weeks.  Genomics would reassure us there was only one source and if not we could look to see how the other infections arrived and how measures could be improved.

 

Thanks so the point really is That as teapot says it will not help us cease the transmission and get us out of lockdown any quicker than the current measures will. What it potentially does is assist us reviewing if there were multiple sources, how they were linked, how tracing worked etc and then making sure that we look to improve for the future. On that basis whilst I can see people taking sides on the spat between the Govt and Rachel Glover based on personalities etc in practical terms in respect of getting out of lockdown it does not make much difference who does the sequencing and whether we get the results back in 24hrs, 48hrs, 7 days or 14 days. 

That is in part what I was trying to understand as the impression given my some, again not necessarily on Manx Forums, was that not using her Genomic testing facility was going to greatly delay getting the current restrictions lifted. From what you are saying that appears not to be the case.

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2 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

You can actually tell how many times the virus has been introduced into the community, and how it has progressed through the community too.

Dr Glover's blog explains it with a nice diagram here: https://rachomics.blog/

It gives you the answers as to who it is likely to have passed between directly, but also, where hops have been missed. It can either reassure you that your contact tracing is working, or alert you to a more widespread problem.

Why, that sounds like really useful data to have.  Especially if we ever found ourselves in the middle of a worldwide pandemic. With us being on and Island and everything and already having a chance better than most of containing the virus once it arrives. Yes, we could really keep on top of it with this data and also showcase how wonderful we are on the world wide stage. Just think how we could increase the popularity of the Isle of Man and encourage here, all those HNWI we keep banging on about.

Just think too, we could all go about our daily business, the economy could keep ticking over, our mental health would be much improved and everyone would think what an amazing government we have.

But we can't.  Because a stupid bint from Willaston who thinks she's a doctor, publicly called us out on our bullshit, and now we're not speaking to her and stonewalling her and saying really nasty things about her behind her back.

Yes, that's about the top and bottom of it.

We need to make our voices heard.

Edited by Roxanne
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