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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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6 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

This is not a statistical argument, it's simply about people who have kids or grandkids knowing what age groups are currently affected - given numerous young people aged 0 - 30 have been hospitalised this time.

When you have your own kids and grandkids, you'll understand the post.

OK I can understand that. The information of who is being affected by age/sex is available on the government dashboard

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23 minutes ago, wrighty said:

I think it’s the intersection - i.e. only a few hundred out of 125000 were both under 60 and without pre-existing health conditions. Or something like that.

This.

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15 minutes ago, wrighty said:

I think it’s the intersection - i.e. only a few hundred out of 125000 were both under 60 and without pre-existing health conditions. Or something like that.

Thanks. I haven't seen the data produced in that way, but I guess it depends what they classify as a pre-existing condition in order to work out the significance of it. 

There was some age-standardised mortality-rate data produced by the ONS between Jan and Nov 2020 that showed around 5% of Covid deaths occurred in people who self reported that they did not have any disability, but I am not sure how robust the data is

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16 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Do you have a link to that data?

I can’t find it currently but here’s a piece relevant to Ireland from Jan this year.

Makes interesting reading in regards the shear number of people who were carrying underlying health conditions & the ages of those who sadly succumbed.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-majority-of-fatalities-had-underlying-conditions-1.4471443%3fmode=amp

Thankfully we are well down the road of vaccinations & all high risk groups on the Island are jabbed. 

The narrative of fear can start to shift quickly now & we can get back on with living.

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Another aspect is that this is the only disease which has involved widespread testing resulting in asymptomatic positives as  'cases'.  This means that it is difficult for the ordinary person to distinguish those that have the virus and those that have the disease, ie are succumbing to the virus even in a minor way to gain some understanding of the proportionality. 

Gathering that Information would involve monitoring and use up resource that is more usefully focused on dealing with the disease such as tracking and treatment rather than in people's perceptions.    However, Information as to the true mortality is helpful in providing some proportionality and helping winding back the fear that was instilled when this first started.  It will also help us pyschologically prepare for the 'new normal'.

If the argument is that we have such a small demographic that that information will be useless, then the argument has to be stop publishing all information, just tell us whether the virus is circulating or not. 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Banker said:

Hence the need for the haste with the vax rollout to all those over 60 & clinically vulnerable.

That has now been achieved, the U.K. have nailed it after the most horrendous 12 months.

That’s history now - we MUST move on & create positivity.

 

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Time for surge testing before sending kids back to schools, I would bet money on this lockdown ending and another starting in May because we still don't have the fundamentals correct with testing and border controls. 

If cases remain low:

  • Send construction back next Monday or after easter
  • Test all kids school age children and teachers wait 2 weeks. Send them in May.
  • Open pubs 2 weeks later at same time as relaxing social distancing

 

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1 hour ago, Nom de plume said:

Thankfully the U.K. has now achieved  herd immunity

I have read that it is unlikely that herd immunity will ever be achieved.

"reaching a herd-immunity threshold is looking unlikely because of factors such as vaccine hesitancy, the emergence of new variants and the delayed arrival of vaccinations for children"

And "Herd immunity is only relevant if we have a transmission-blocking vaccine." We don't know yet, for sure, whether our vaccines do prevent transmission.

New variants are causing the goalposts to be moved all the time. 

Do not get complacent, even if you have had your jabs. 

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6 minutes ago, Banker said:

Here’s that data upto December, since when the deaths have fallen as vaccinations rolled out

Actually they didn't fall after December, January 2021 was the worst month for Covid deaths in England and Wales since the start of the epidemic.  There were 37,477 death involving Covid in the first five weeks of the year (compared to 33,173 in the worst five week period in the previous Spring).  That's 28% of all Covid deaths.  People (or at least the media) seem to have just shut their eyes and pretended it wasn't happening.

Now it was almost certainly too soon for vaccination to have much effect.   Covid deaths tend to happen some time after infection, though in reducing symptoms, vaccination may have stopped the death toll being even worse.

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3 minutes ago, TomTucker said:

Time for surge testing before sending kids back to schools, I would bet money on this lockdown ending and another starting in May because we still don't have the fundamentals correct with testing and border controls. 

If cases remain low:

  • Send construction back next Monday or after easter
  • Test all kids school age children and teachers wait 2 weeks. Send them in May.
  • Open pubs 2 weeks later at same time as relaxing social distancing

 

That's not happening. 

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1 minute ago, TomTucker said:

Time for surge testing before sending kids back to schools, I would bet money on this lockdown ending and another starting in May because we still don't have the fundamentals correct with testing and border controls. 

If cases remain low:

  • Send construction back next Monday or after easter
  • Test all kids school age children and teachers wait 2 weeks. Send them in May.
  • Open pubs 2 weeks later at same time as relaxing social distancing

 

Not going to happen, if no unexplained cases this week, construction, garden centers & outside meetings 6 April, no cases next week ,schools back 12/04 maybe staggered, week after hospitality 

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17 minutes ago, Banker said:

I don't think anyone is arguing that people over the age of 60, and people with underlying health conditions are more likely to die from Covid, should they catch it. It is a case of how the information is being put forward. The Daily Mail article is saying that for deaths up to December 23rd (of which there were about 61,000 in the UK, not the 125,000 being quoted above), once you exclude people over the age of 60, and you exclude people under the age of 60 with underlying conditions, you are only left with 388 deaths. The figure now would obviously be higher as there have been at least that number of deaths again since December

The point that needs to be made is that the excluded groups make up a very large percentage of the population. The article quotes 15million people just for the group with pre-existing conditions. There will be a lot of healthy 60+ year olds to add to that. Overall, some 17% of deaths in Ireland (according to the article linked by NDP above) occurred in people with no underlying conditions

I agree absolutely that vaccinating those groups is the key to relaxing restrictions and that the climate of fear should be dialled down, but equally, people need to understand what the data is saying rather than just pushing a narrative of the risk to healthy individuals being minuscule.

 

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Context is important in evaluating the numbers. It used to be that people died, and that was it. Now we must have a fixed cause of death and everyone has a pre-existing condition. Around half of all over 65s have “ high blood pressure”. How high? It used  to be that a rise in blood pressure was expected as one aged, and that was allowed. Now we must all maintain the “health” of our 20s - until we drop dead. It’s great for Big Pharma.
It also “used to be” that a “case” was somebody showing clinical symptoms of illness, or condition. Now we all have something, even if we are unaware.

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that 2020, in the UK, had the highest death rate since 2003. Not great, but not the end of the world. A bit like those, once in 50 years weather events. We plan to mitigate but cannot expect to prevent them. Shit happens.
If everyone hides under the stairs until covid is eliminated we will all die of starvation or boredom. 

 

 

 

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