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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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45 minutes ago, Cambon said:

I still don't see the point in testing and quarantine here. Jersey has a good few international flights most days. We only have flights from England (and possibly Ireland again sometime). If international quarantine is being imposed by England, we should have totally unhindered travel. 

I mean, if you travel from Cornwall with low cases, to London with higher cases and variants, you don't have to get tested or quarantine when you get back to Cornwall! We are getting there with the vaccines. It is approaching the time we need to trust it. 

Isolating until your first test comes back is basically unhindered travel, with the slight inconvenience of a measure to try and filter out some of the inevitable returning cases.

I think it would be a good compromise in the short term and easy enough to live with.  I normally have a hangover from hell when I come back anyway so a day in bed isn't the end of the world.

They really should be announcing this on Tuesday.  I still fear they will be overly cautious and bow to the opinions of those, who through governments own making, believe that cases equal piles of body bags.

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Something positive needs to happen for sure, the situation in the UK is looking good enough to allow a fair bit more travel, but just cos it's got better recently doesn't mean anything is over.

The GLOBAL pandemic is still raging in parts of the world, case rates are as high as they've ever been, deaths aren't that far behind. It is a long way from finished.

I'm pretty critical of doomers, and really don't want to sound like one, but people are fooling themselves if they think this is the end.

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4 hours ago, Galen said:

I wonder how many of our 'great and good' were aware of this, and if so, whether it was taken into account in respect of the control measures that were put in place

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability 

It's actually a very odd article - not because of what it says (which is mostly correct as I can tell) but because of what it doesn't discuss.  It goes on about the danger of false positives from the lateral flow tests, but that's never been the problem with them.  The whole point of LFTs (or any other test) is to identify people who have the virus.  So what you should be worried about is false negatives - people who are infected but the test doesn't pick up.  This isn't even mentioned - even though it had appeared in a Guardian article a couple of days earlier on the problems with LFTs.

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1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

Something positive needs to happen for sure, the situation in the UK is looking good enough to allow a fair bit more travel, but just cos it's got better recently doesn't mean anything is over.

The GLOBAL pandemic is still raging in parts of the world, case rates are as high as they've ever been, deaths aren't that far behind. It is a long way from finished.

I'm pretty critical of doomers, and really don't want to sound like one, but people are fooling themselves if they think this is the end.

Vaccination is as good as it is going to get I'm afraid.   The world is going to need to move on and accept people get ill etc.

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11 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

Vaccination is as good as it is going to get I'm afraid.   The world is going to need to move on and accept people get ill etc.

'move on move on move on' you say this about everything you dont like.

Vaccination will be as good as gets, but its going to take quite some time. 

But move on anyway.

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3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

'move on move on move on' you say this about everything you dont like.

Vaccination will be as good as gets, but its going to take quite some time. 

But move on anyway.

True story I'm afraid.

We can't live our lives around how shit is it in Brazil etc.

The government job is to get people vaccinated.  That does as much as can be done.

After that people can make their own life choices.  Stay at home, wear a mask, avoid travel, be a bit healthier etc.  

Some people must be fucking shitting themselves at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

True story I'm afraid.

We can't live our lives around how shit is it in Brazil etc.

The government job is to get people vaccinated.  That does as much as can be done.

After that people can make their own life choices.  Stay at home, wear a mask, avoid travel, be a bit healthier etc.  

Some people must be fucking shitting themselves at the moment.

You need 2 jabs to get the full protection. I’ve only had one, as have many people. More that happy to ‘move on’ when we are all protected - fully. 

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50 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It's actually a very odd article - not because of what it says (which is mostly correct as I can tell) but because of what it doesn't discuss.  It goes on about the danger of false positives from the lateral flow tests, but that's never been the problem with them.  The whole point of LFTs (or any other test) is to identify people who have the virus.  So what you should be worried about is false negatives - people who are infected but the test doesn't pick up.  This isn't even mentioned - even though it had appeared in a Guardian article a couple of days earlier on the problems with LFTs.

The false positives become more of a problem when the incidence of disease in the community has dropped to very low levels. Where the incidence of disease is less than 1 in 1,000 the chances are that a positive result from a Lateral Flow Test will be a false positive result. It is difficult to establish the exact numbers, but in London, where the incidence of Covid is currently very low, it has been estimated that only 25% of positive lateral flow tests are true positives (although it does depend a bit on the brand of test used, and who has taken the test).

The positive results can be checked with a subsequent PCR test, but that takes time to organise and analyse, which means lots of people (including their families) have to isolate unnecessarily until the PCR test comes back. In short, as the incidence of disease falls, the false positives are more troublesome than the false negatives. There will still be false negatives as well, but not many because there will not be many people with Covid.

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8 minutes ago, cheesypeas said:

You need 2 jabs to get the full protection. I’ve only had one, as have many people. More that happy to ‘move on’ when we are all protected - fully. 

Meh.  Your choice and you can stay at home while the rest of us take our chances and enjoy the spring and summer

A second jab for someone my age makes little difference to if I will become seriously ill or not.  I was never likely to anyway

 

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1 minute ago, TerryFuchwit said:

All?

Exactly.  All protected - fully, against all variants and with no chance of becoming ill?  We will all be long dead from something else by then in the year neverty neverty never

 

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13 minutes ago, Newbie said:

The false positives become more of a problem when the incidence of disease in the community has dropped to very low levels. Where the incidence of disease is less than 1 in 1,000 the chances are that a positive result from a Lateral Flow Test will be a false positive result. It is difficult to establish the exact numbers, but in London, where the incidence of Covid is currently very low, it has been estimated that only 25% of positive lateral flow tests are true positives (although it does depend a bit on the brand of test used, and who has taken the test).

The positive results can be checked with a subsequent PCR test, but that takes time to organise and analyse, which means lots of people (including their families) have to isolate unnecessarily until the PCR test comes back. In short, as the incidence of disease falls, the false positives are more troublesome than the false negatives. There will still be false negatives as well, but not many because there will not be many people with Covid.

Lateral flow tests have the potential to cause a lot of unnecessary grief for little added value.   

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25 minutes ago, cheesypeas said:

You need 2 jabs to get the full protection. I’ve only had one, as have many people. More that happy to ‘move on’ when we are all protected - fully. 

Just stay in house when borders open then & come out when vaccinated fully then!

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