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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

No the false negatives are always more of a problem unless incidence is so very low that it's not worth doing any testing at all.  The reason is the difference in consequences.  If someone has a false positive it means they can't get in the pub.  If they have a false negative it means you've got an infected pub and everyone who catches Covid there will take it back to their families and workplaces and you've got an outbreak.

Add to that that the figures for false negatives are much higher than for false positives (maybe up to 50%) and you've got a recipe for disaster.  Lateral flow tests look like they are worse than useless because they will provide reassurance that isn't justified.

Well going to use for tests for 5000 person concert in 2 weeks!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-56789454.amp

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U.K. case numbers dropping off a cliff as are the number of deaths.

It’s all disappearing much quicker than anticipated.

Liverpool now down to 15 in 100,000 down from 19 last week.

Only 10 deaths recorded today U.K. wide.

Edited by Nom de plume
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18 minutes ago, trmpton said:

50 percent is rubbish

But if every adult was doing two a week like the UK are.........

Then it couldn't be a bad thing could it?

Yes.  Having loads of false positives just causes lovkdown style hassle unnecessarily for those involved.

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11 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

U.K. case numbers dropping off a cliff as are the number of deaths.

It’s all disappearing much quicker than anticipated.

Liverpool now down to 15 in 100,000 down from 19 last week.

Only 10 deaths recorded today U.K. wide.

CLOSE THE BOARDERS

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20 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

No the false negatives are always more of a problem unless incidence is so very low that it's not worth doing any testing at all.  The reason is the difference in consequences.  If someone has a false positive it means they can't get in the pub.  If they have a false negative it means you've got an infected pub and everyone who catches Covid there will take it back to their families and workplaces and you've got an outbreak.

Add to that that the figures for false negatives are much higher than for false positives (maybe up to 50%) and you've got a recipe for disaster.  Lateral flow tests look like they are worse than useless because they will provide reassurance that isn't justified.

Largely I agree with you regarding the false negatives. I think the level of disease now is such that it isn't worth doing the tests. But the raw figures for false negatives and positives are a bit misleading. For argument sake, if the incidence in the community of Covid is say 1 per 10,000 (i.e a low level) and you test a million people you would expect to get 100 positives, but because of the false negatives you might only pick up 50 or 60 of them. You could argue that it is better to find the 50 or 60 than not find them, otherwise they will all be down the pub. Also as trmpton says (below) you may well pick them up next time they get tested a few days later.

The problem is that with even a 99.5% specificity you would expect to get 5,000 false positives out of your 1 million tests, so all of those people and their families would have to isolate, at least until the PCR tests come back (if they get done). You are then looking for the 50 or 60 true positives out of over 5,000 positive lateral flow test results. Which is more of a problem, is arguable. When the incidence in the community is relatively high, the false negatives are the problem, when the incidence is very low, the false positives become more of a problem

16 minutes ago, trmpton said:

50 percent is rubbish

But if every adult was doing two a week like the UK are.........

Then it couldn't be a bad thing could it?

 

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19 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

U.K. case numbers dropping off a cliff as are the number of deaths.

 

deaths will always fall because the virus runs out of vulnerable people that it can kill, survival of the fittest in all its ruthless glory

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9 minutes ago, Pipsqueak said:

survival of the fittest in all its ruthless glory

This term is typically misunderstood.

It was always actually about survival of the most fitted, the most adaptable. Especailly true economically (look at how many businesses have adapted and done really well over the past year) but is also true about people's ability to change their behaviour.

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34 minutes ago, pongo said:

This term is typically misunderstood.

It was always actually about survival of the most fitted, the most adaptable. Especailly true economically (look at how many businesses have adapted and done really well over the past year) but is also true about people's ability to change their behaviour.

i always thought it was about being not the slowest antelope. 

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2 hours ago, Banker said:

I think you will be proved wrong this week unless there’s a big uturn as Howard has already indicated reduced isolation for families & friends at start of May with further easing shortly thereafter.

I predict 7/10 days 3 May & by end May traffic light system based on Guernsey so isolation until negative test for some areas, 7 for others & 2 tests. Hopefully reducing cost of tests to £25.

Also isolation away from families will stop as well. All covered in workshops & will be formally submitted to Tynwald on Tuesday by CM 

Why are you so pro this testing and quarantine rubbish? Guernsey and particularly Jersey have many European direct flights as well as uk. We do not. What is the point in us having a traffic lights system? What is the point in us even testing? From June 21, just go for it! 

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1 hour ago, Nom de plume said:

U.K. case numbers dropping off a cliff as are the number of deaths.

It’s all disappearing much quicker than anticipated.

Liverpool now down to 15 in 100,000 down from 19 last week.

Only 10 deaths recorded today U.K. wide.

Yes. A lot has changed since Boris closed the borders. 

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26 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Why are you so pro this testing and quarantine rubbish? Guernsey and particularly Jersey have many European direct flights as well as uk. We do not. What is the point in us having a traffic lights system? What is the point in us even testing? From June 21, just go for it! 

What direct flights to Europe do Guernsey have & is it any more than we were having with weekly Majorca flights, some to Scandinavia , weekly to Geneva in ski season etc , no it isn’t you plonker !!

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1 hour ago, trmpton said:

50 percent is rubbish

But if every adult was doing two a week like the UK are.........

Then it couldn't be a bad thing could it?

When they tried it in the real world it was actually as low as 50%.  It depends on who is doing the swabbing and assessing the test and given that these are mainly being done by amateurs, percentages are likely to be low.  And they seem to be doing them in fits and starts, so I'm not really sure the ones they do pick up will tell us.

There's an additional problem with the false positives as well - and it's possible that those may be more common that the quoted figures as well, given how that was true with the false negatives when those were tested in the real world rather than the lab.  When people are being tested positive with LFTs they are not then being given a PCR test to check, but have to isolate with their families and maybe other contacts.  If it was just having to go home while another test was done overnight that wouldn't be so bad.

It's actually very difficult trying to find reliable data on this - especially the false negatives.  I rather get the impression that the British Government are determined to use them, having spent £800 million to buy them via a private equity house in a deal organised by Dominic Cummings.  On past form they may be all sorts of dodgy goings on.

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45 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Why are you so pro this testing and quarantine rubbish? Guernsey and particularly Jersey have many European direct flights as well as uk. We do not. What is the point in us having a traffic lights system? What is the point in us even testing? From June 21, just go for it! 

Why wait that long?

All adults will have 1st vaccine dose by mid May

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6 minutes ago, snowman said:

Why wait that long?

All adults will have 1st vaccine dose by mid May

The under 65 but clinically vulnerable won't all have had their second jabs until mid-June, and it takes a couple weeks for the jabs to become really effective.

21st June sounds reasonable to me. 

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