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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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1 hour ago, rachomics said:

That figure really depends on the brand and type of vaccination given? Even with the figure you're quoting that would mean that 20% of the people who have had their first dose have no immunity and they don't know it.

Real world data. Effectiveness peaked four weeks after one dose, at 85% for the Pfizer/BioNTech and 94% for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. It is tempting to claim the Oxford jab was better but the overlapping, plausible ranges around these estimates (76% to 91% and 73% to 99%) show we can’t conclude they are really different. Encouragingly, the combined effectiveness for over-80s was 81% (range 65% to 90%).

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/feb/28/both-covid-jabs-are-working-well-in-the-real-world-not-just-the-lab

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2 minutes ago, Banker said:

Well I have heard that someone visited a family member who was in isolation after returning from UK but obviously not 100% as whilst the person is reliable it’s third or fourth hand !

Oh it's certainly possible and some people have ended up in jail[1].  But I was making the point that people breaking isolation after travel doesn't seem to be a source of outbreaks so far - the New Year's Eve one was after they completed their period. 

Given the numbers involved, it's clear the vast majority have been careful so far, though it's possible that vaccination may lead some to be careless about contacts.

 

[1]  Admittedly usually the ones who spend a lot of time there anyway.

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4 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

The Ramsey school is being deep cleaned tonight and reopening tomorrow. Only one teacher and pupil are in isolation. Mitigation in action, it would appear so...

Fairly sure it's the whole class..

Screenshot_20210421-164807_Twitter.jpg

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8 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

Quayle said in Tynwald it was the whole class but then he's not the most reliable source.

Sadly one big thing thats come out of this last year or so is just how bad comms have been from Government. Considering they have a PR dept and goodness knows how many advisors , CS etc the constant mistakes and lack of clarity has been mind blowing really. No other word but incompetant and when you think how much the salaries are combined theres no excuse .

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52 minutes ago, TerryFuchwit said:

Seems unlikely given it wasn't really a requirement in lockdown.   You are then effectively shutting down the hospitality businesses again.

Masks and SD would have made little difference in lockdown as people weren't mingling - they are now.

That Telegraph article posted earlier (and again here) says that people who have been vaccinated and have had time for their immunity to build (3 weeks it says) are more than 2,000 times less likely to be hospitalised with covid than those who haven't been jabbed.

That data (if correct) has got to be hugely significant in how we deal with this. Case counts will matter less.

Screenshot_20210421-184629_Chrome.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Numbnuts said:

Sadly one big thing thats come out of this last year or so is just how bad comms have been from Government. Considering they have a PR dept and goodness knows how many advisors , CS etc the constant mistakes and lack of clarity has been mind blowing really. No other word but incompetant and when you think how much the salaries are combined theres no excuse .

How many do we actually employ in government communications? The white and black propaganda departments certainly seem pretty well staffed. Maybe they forgot to employ someone to announce unspun news?

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The vaccine efficacy against hospitalisation report from another source:

 

Data reveals impact of one vaccine dose on COVID infections

A key government scientist has said that real-world data shows coronavirus vaccines are "working really well".

Around 74,000 people were admitted to hospitals with the virus in recent months, but only 32 of them were vaccinated, official data from March shows.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme Professor Calum Semple, one of the scientists advising the government on COVID-19, said the results are "very good news".

Prof Semple said researchers looked "very carefully" at the hospital records of the 74,000 people in the data sample.

They worked out that 43,000 had been admitted after vaccinations started. Within that number just under 2,000 people that had received a jab. They then looked at how many days there were between receiving the vaccine and the onset of their symptoms.

Prof Semple said: "Most people admitted had caught their infection within a week on either side of vaccination and then there was a really sharp drop off in numbers, so that, after three weeks after being vaccinated, we could only count 32 people out of the 2,000 that had been vaccinated.”

 

Now that is impressive.

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10 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

Masks and SD would have made little difference in lockdown as people weren't mingling - they are now.

That Telegraph article posted earlier (and again here) says that people who have been vaccinated and have had time for their immunity to build (3 weeks it says) are more than 2,000 times less likely to be hospitalised with covid than those who haven't been jabbed.

That data (if correct) has got to be hugely significant in how we deal with this. Case counts will matter less.

Screenshot_20210421-184629_Chrome.jpg

The question over the next few months will be how much of the rapid drop off in the UK's infection rate was the vaccinations and how much was down to the lockdown. I want it to be the former but I suspect the latter.

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