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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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51 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

The worry about the Indian variants and specifically B.1.617.2 is that the latter seems even faster-spreading than the UK/Kent one (B.1.1.7) though that is still the dominant one in the UK at the moment.  The latest Variants of Concern analysis from PHE shows only 19 new cases of the Brazil (Manaus) variant and 81 of the South African one, but 793 of B.1.617.2.

I assume that spread will happen within the unvaccinated community anyway, Kent or Indian, just a little quicker with the Indian, but hopefully due in large part to the majority demographics of that cohort it will not overrun the NHS. The vaccinated population are it would seem still protected, so other than an increase in cases, with hopefully only minor additional hospitalisations I do not see it matters what is the dominant variant.

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3 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

I assume that spread will happen within the unvaccinated community anyway, Kent or Indian, just a little quicker with the Indian, but hopefully due in large part to the majority demographics of that cohort it will not overrun the NHS. The vaccinated population are it would seem still protected, so other than an increase in cases, with hopefully only minor additional hospitalisations I do not see it matters what is the dominant variant.

Faster it spreads faster everyone gets it and faster we reach herd immunity.

As long as it isn't killing previously healthy people or making them very ill then I am honestly past caring

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5 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

I assume that spread will happen within the unvaccinated community anyway, Kent or Indian, just a little quicker with the Indian, but hopefully due in large part to the majority demographics of that cohort it will not overrun the NHS. The vaccinated population are it would seem still protected, so other than an increase in cases, with hopefully only minor additional hospitalisations I do not see it matters what is the dominant variant.

Too much sense, not enough fear.

Try harder.

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1 minute ago, Out of the blue said:

I assume that spread will happen within the unvaccinated community anyway, Kent or Indian, just a little quicker with the Indian, but hopefully due in large part to the majority demographics of that cohort it will not overrun the NHS. The vaccinated population are it would seem still protected, so other than an increase in cases, with hopefully only minor additional hospitalisations I do not see it matters what is the dominant variant.

Unfortunately it does matter.  People are seeing vaccination as some sort of on/off switch - you're either protected or you're not.  But like most thing regarding health it's more about probabilities and likelihood.  So if vaccination reduces your likelihood of catching Covid to a quarter, but it becomes more infectious so you are four times more likely to be exposed to it, then you're just as likely to catch it as before.

Mercifully vaccination does more than that and seems to also reduce hospitalisations and death even if you have been infected.  But as the Seychelles is currently showing, it's not an overnight miracle.

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35 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Faster it spreads faster everyone gets it and faster we reach herd immunity.

For the zillionth time this is not what herd immunity means and not how it is achieved.  The only way herd immunity has ever been achieved is via vaccination.

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2 hours ago, Out of the blue said:

my money is on a 'wait and see and we will make a call next week' type of announcement. 

That's been the policy for the past 14 months so why change?  Make a decision - Mr Toad and the MBE probably scare themselves everytime they look in the bathroom mirror 'cos they can't decide whether to clean teeth or shave.

Decision makers? Leaders? They have neither skills or training and yet we permit these jokers to dictate where and when  we can go, who  and when we can see anyone - and the sheeple lap it up.

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Just now, Roger Mexico said:

Unfortunately it does matter.  People are seeing vaccination as some sort of on/off switch - you're either protected or you're not.  But like most thing regarding health it's more about probabilities and likelihood.  So if vaccination reduces your likelihood of catching Covid to a quarter, but it becomes more infectious so you are four times more likely to be exposed to it, then you're just as likely to catch it as before.

Mercifully vaccination does more than that and seems to also reduce hospitalisations and death even if you have been infected.  But as the Seychelles is currently showing, it's not an overnight miracle.

Understood re. catching it, but my main thrust is that you are unlikely to be hospitalised, which is a positive as it is all about saving the NHS apparently. I know I am being flippant, but frankly providing we don’t over run the wards and the morgues we need to vaccinate those who will have it and move on.

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9 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

For the zillionth time this is not what herd immunity means and not how it is achieved.  The only way herd immunity has ever been achieved is via vaccination.

Do you not think we are there yet on the Island?

I do

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1 minute ago, trmpton said:

Did they use the same vaccines as us? Nope

Yup.  Or at least one of the vaccines is the same (AZ).  The other was different (Sinopharm for them , Pfizer for us) but there's nothing really to suggest it would make that much difference or that Sinopharm isn't as good as AZ.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

 but there's nothing really to suggest it would make that much difference or that Sinopharm isn't as good as AZ.

Hmm. There is. I can't be bothered finding it again right now but the studies from Chile, which had a massive issue earlier in the year at the start of their vaccination program suggested that the first dose efficiency of the sinopharm vaccine was much lower than AZ (and others). Full protection, two doses + two weeks appears to work pretty well though, similar end results.

Edit - paywall link sorry https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/first-jab-of-chinese-sinovac-vaccine-does-little-good-says-chile-n0df0pzg3

"

Chilean scientists are warning that China’s Sinovac vaccination, which is widely used in the developing world, offers “very weak” protection until after the second dose.

The study of 10.5 million people showed that the vaccine was just 16 per cent effective in guarding against Covid infection after one dose, rising to 67 per cent efficacy after the second dose.

The initial low efficacy helps to answer the vexing question facing Chile: why is the country experiencing a surge in cases, despite the fact that it has initiated one of the world’s fastest vaccine rollouts?

“With one dose, we know the protection is very weak,” Claudia Cortés, an infectious disease expert at the Santa Maria Clinic in the Chilean capital Santiago told the Wall Street Journal."

Edited by TheTeapot
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8 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Hmm. There is. I can't be bothered finding it again right now but the studies from Chile, which had a massive issue earlier in the year at the start of their vaccination program suggested that the first dose efficiency of the sinopharm vaccine was much lower than AZ (and others). Full protection, two doses + two weeks appears to work pretty well though, similar end results.

Edit - paywall link sorry https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/first-jab-of-chinese-sinovac-vaccine-does-little-good-says-chile-n0df0pzg3

"

Chilean scientists are warning that China’s Sinovac vaccination, which is widely used in the developing world, offers “very weak” protection until after the second dose.

The study of 10.5 million people showed that the vaccine was just 16 per cent effective in guarding against Covid infection after one dose, rising to 67 per cent efficacy after the second dose.

The initial low efficacy helps to answer the vexing question facing Chile: why is the country experiencing a surge in cases, despite the fact that it has initiated one of the world’s fastest vaccine rollouts?

“With one dose, we know the protection is very weak,” Claudia Cortés, an infectious disease expert at the Santa Maria Clinic in the Chilean capital Santiago told the Wall Street Journal."

Cheers.  Saved me looking it up.

Our situation and there's aren't comparable.  And even if they were there really aren't many deaths as a result.  Not enough that I would delay progress 

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4 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Hmm. There is. I can't be bothered finding it again right now but the studies from Chile, which had a massive issue earlier in the year at the start of their vaccination program suggested that the first dose efficiency of the sinopharm vaccine was much lower than AZ (and others). Full protection, two doses + two weeks appears to work pretty well though, similar end results.

Yes I was thinking about the situation with both doses, given the very high level of  full  vaccination in the Seychelles.  Apart from AZ we don't really have a lot of data on one dose efficiency and they're the only manufacturer that says it's OK to leave a larger gap (Sinopharm is 4 weeks).   

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