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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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1 hour ago, finlo said:

I feel the time has come to let it run it's course unabated before the whole world crashes and burns!

I don't think it’s unabated though. The people who have got it so far have got it and not overwhelmed the NHS, those who have sadly died are largely in the most vulnerable group (old, multiple health issues, vulnerable etc) so could potentially have died of any serious viral infection. Those who are still concerned because of health issues should just stay indoors. For the rest of us there is no point in waiting around for even more chances of financial ruin and long term unemployment. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
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Can you guys start a separate thread titled "Jersey is ace - oh no it isn't" and leave this one to a discussion on IOM and the coronavirus?

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world.    The current UK situation is impact

It's a safe place right now because of the Manx people, not the Manx politicians. None of us want to be "the person who brought it back" so we isolate and make sure we don't transmit the virus by bein

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32 minutes ago, thommo2010 said:

You may correct me but the whole point of lockdown was to help the nhs as far as I'm aware nowhere was overran even at the height of the pandemic. The fact that in scotland they are telling people to travel to Belfast to get tested says it all to me. 

Actually a lot of places in major cities were overrun.  The problem wasn't so much beds as staffing.  Any extra staff they could round up weren't even enough to compensate for those who were off ill with Covid-19 or quarantined.

The 'Nightingale Hospitals' were always going to be empty because there were no doctors or nurses or other technical staff to run them.  the whole purpose of them wasn't to help relieve the crisis, it was to make it look like the UK government was doing something (and no doubt to give some nice contracts to the right people).

The Scottish thing seems to be a simple software error.  If people insisted on the next available swabbing appointment, it gave them that without bothering to take distance or geography into account.  The same thing happens to everyone on the Isle of Man whenever some company tries to get us to visit their nearest branch in Barrow or Belfast.  We don't usually go crying to the papers about it, but if the last year has taught us anything it's that the UK media exists not to give information or context, but to get their consumers as excited and hysterical as they can all the time.

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3 hours ago, wrighty said:

The behaviour of this viral infection is very difficult to understand. Questions -

Is the infection fatality rate decreasing for some reason, or is it the same it’s always been, and we’re now seeing loads of cases due to testing more, and it’s millennials going to raves getting it rather than nursing home residents?

Is there a seasonal effect? Vitamin D? Being outside?

Have all the people really susceptible to this new virus been killed off and the rest of us have either had it, are immune to it, or are minimally affected by it? Has this led to populations such as the UK effectively having herd immunity now and covid has become another common cold in that population?

There was an interesting analysis earlier in the week in the FT, looking at the various reasons why the death rate has been so low while infections have started to rise again.  Some of the reasons may have had an effect, such as more testing picking up cases with no or minor symptoms, and improved care (itself covering quite a lot of different factors) will certainly have made an impression on the death rate.  The UK government has also adjusted 

The vitamin D stuff is nonsense, but people being outdoors more will certainly  have some effect because the virus spreads so much more easily indoors.  Another article in Time this week made the point about it now being pretty clear that Covid-19 can be spread in aerosol form and these are much more deadly indoors.

The herd immunity thing has always been wishful thinking and the documented case of reinfection this week undermines it further (previous infection seems to help protect someone from disease, but won't stop them passing it on) and the idea that all the susceptible have already perished would only make sense if the infection rate was 100%, rather than the single figures that most studies suggest. 

The change in age mix in the positive cases may help with current figures, but may be storing up problems for later.  If there is rapid spread among younger people it will inevitably leak into older groups and the hospitalisations will rise again.  The pattern has happened with second waves elsewhere (eg Florida).

There is another possibility which the FT article doesn't mention, but which it's data suggest could be a factor:

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In the UK “pillar 2” tests conducted outside hospitals and NHS labs have increased faster than “pillar 1” hospital-based testing, particularly since early July.

Pillar 2 tests have a higher positive rate: around 7.5 in every 1,000 confirm infection, a figure that has been increasing since the resurgence of recorded cases. The positive rates of pillar 1 tests conducted in hospitals and NHS labs has fallen to around two in every 1,000 in the same period.

Pillar 2 tests are processed commercially and it may be that they are producing a higher level of false positives than the NHS.  With current levels of infection the difference doesn't have to be high  - 5 in 1000 tests would explain the discrepancy.  This would mean the number of cases is being overstated.  

 

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15 hours ago, thommo2010 said:

1,715 UK cases - highest since May.

1 death.

Wonder which of those figures will be the story

Likelihood of HQ addressing the nation with an update? Perhaps an idea when they plan to introduce the next steps, a clue as to what they might be, you know ... some information I think they call it.

It would be nice, I mean, it’s only been over a month. Is he hiding somewhere, praying it all goes away?

 

Edited by Nom de plume
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Was talking to someone in the UK the other day. Asked me what was going on in Jersey as 4 friends or people he worked with have gone on holiday there in the last few weeks. None had ever gone there before on holiday but said they’d weighed up the risks and thought it was the safest place to go in Europe due to the testing policy. Clearly what they are doing is working to get the tourist numbers up. But we’re still Brigadoon. 

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Jersey is thriving SoS.

We aren’t Jersey however, our Island is far more picturesque.

We’ve been incredibly spoiled but the time has come to move on now.

The most disturbing aspect in all this is the lack of transparency being shown by our Government on the discussions which have led (and continue) to the border closing policies. The Manx people have a right to know what is being said & by whom.

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Meanwhile, while the economy crashes and burns and non resident Manx born people are barred, the NHS is so protected that Treatment waiting lists are growing exponentially and people are dying through lack of available diagnosis and treatment! Why are out patients having to be transported to Ramsey for out patient consultations? Is Nobles being utilised or still waiting for the explosion in numbers of Covid patients?
 
OPEN THE BORDERS NOW!!
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55 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Likelihood of HQ addressing the nation with an update? Perhaps an idea when they plan to introduce the next steps, a clue as to what they might be, you know ... some information I think they call it.

It would be nice, I mean, it’s only been over a month. Is he hiding somewhere, praying it all goes away?

 

Jersey & Guernsey CMs both addressed nations on Friday, where’s Howie?

heres Jersey, testing ranked best in Europe by independent assessments.

https://www.gov.je/News/2020/Pages/CMSpeech28August.aspx

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1 minute ago, thommo2010 said:

Wasnt there supposed to be an update by the end of august? Maybe I heard it wrong but I thought that's when the borders were being looked at again

That’s what Howie said but it didn’t happen!

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Well we've had the big weekend now (a roaring success by the looks of things) so maybe they'll consider some changes. One of the problems is that they published their plan to reduce restrictions based on the UK infection rate dropping, and that hasn't really happened to any great extent. And we all know our gov doesn't like even a suggestion that they might have got things wrong. Even if that is debatable.

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20 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Well we've had the big weekend now (a roaring success by the looks of things) so maybe they'll consider some changes. One of the problems is that they published their plan to reduce restrictions based on the UK infection rate dropping, and that hasn't really happened to any great extent. And we all know our gov doesn't like even a suggestion that they might have got things wrong. Even if that is debatable.

The infection rate is high because theres more testing being done. I have no doubts covid is on the island but theres no testing going on unless you get symptoms or go to the hospital.

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