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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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2 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It's not word for word but one may have copied the points off the other.  At least they're finally noticing the enormous differences after us banging on about it for nearly a week

But they really ought to be making a massive fuss about this and have been the first to do so.

Maybe MR are treading carefully after upsetting the big boss man ?!! .No excuse for not being able to add up and produce accurate figures .

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18 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

It is all hogwash. Don't get uptight or pay attention to case numbers.

You seem to be the one getting uptight about case numbers. Seems to trigger you. Why not just ignore it?

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3 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

The antibody numbers across UK are looking good, taken in the round with all the other data (cases look as though they're on the way down😞


Cases are still going up (35.81% increase in the 7 day average). Maybe plateauting based on today's but not going down.Screenshot_20210721-170529_Twitter.thumb.jpg.21d661dd692d1459b30b7a2e50e6cbd8.jpg

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They’ve only just released everyone on freedom day, give it chance, should take at least 2/3 weeks before we start to see a difference. Will be interesting to see how England compares to Wales & Scotland who’ve kept some restrictions in place.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

I tend to look at the "Cases by specimen date" of the data set. It's a couple of days behind the "Cases by date reported" but I believe it presents a more accurate picture. You'll see the difference when you look at the graphs. 


The weekly rises give a more accurate view as it tends to flatten daily spikes. When they start to drop then this wave will have peaked.

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Bit off immediate topic sorry about that, but I took the standard SEIR model of infectious disease (what UK SAGE, Prof Ferguson et al use) and calibrated it against the ongoing IoM Natural Wave here on the IoM. You get some big numbers, like 1,573 cases on 6th August and by 24th Aug 22 Nobles bed occupied (did not consider deaths or Long COVID in model). People really need to be aware what is coming and 2+2s particularly high risk groups should do whatever the can to not become infected. The critical period is over the next 4 weeks. I posted in effect a narrative of the model onto a web page at:


and also to twitter at:

Got any question or queries happy to do my best to answer them.


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This data for England is quite telling as far as I'm concerned..




Paste of the commentary which accompanied this data, which is also very telling. Produced by Suzanne Lugthart, a research & insights expert for ITV, eBay and Rightmove.


1. First thing to note is that there weren't 50,000 positive tests today: what's reported covers a spread of dates. Note also "positive tests". A "case" is something altogether different clinically

2. The last time there were 50,000 positive tests by specimen date, on January 11th, there were 1129 deaths reported

3. The mean average number of deaths for each day when cases exceeded 50,000 (10 of them) was 845

4. Latest data for 14th July reports 44,000 cases and 22 deaths - this will change a little over the coming days.

5. 22 deaths isn't far off the average number of suicides per day (2019 figures, we can only pray lockdowns haven't made that worse). The difference of course is that the average age of a suicide victim isn't 82. You won't hear about those on the BBC (or other media outlets)

6. Around 20 times that number will have died of cancer today, but you won't hear that on the BBC either

The link between cases and deaths is truly broken. We need to stop testing and stop reporting cases. They are a total irrelevance and doing nothing more than fuel the hysteria


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1 hour ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

Ashford didn't think it was worthwhile so they stopped it halfway through.

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the less Ashford "thinks", the better off we will all be. 

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